A deep mid-level trough and associated cold front approached from the west on the 16th. Ahead of the trough/front, surface dewpoints in the 60s spread into central North Carolina, with strong low-level and deep-layer shear.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
A deep mid-level trough and associated cold front approached from the west on the 16th. Ahead of the trough/front, surface dewpoints in the 60s spread into central North Carolina, with strong low-level and deep-layer shear. Two rounds of severe weather occurred from mid morning through the evening hours. Several reports of damaging winds and large hail were reported, along with isolated flash flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 16, 7:57 AM EST, 1 hour 23 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 857 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A powerful storm system will impact the region through today, bringing windy conditions and a chance for strong or severe thunderstorms. Behind this system, high pressure will build into the Southeast states Monday through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 851 AM Sunday... * A threat for damaging winds, brief tornadoes, strong gradient winds and potential flooding exist for today. Biggest concern in the next few hours is the cluster of storms rapidly approaching from upstate SC. Broken segments within this cluster have shown signs of rotation and will likely continue to do so as they enter our southern Piedmont and push east through the Sandhills. Latest sfc analysis out ahead of this segment indicates juicy dew points in the lower to mid 60s, with increasingly backed sfc flow. RAP-derived hodographs in this vicinity are classically curved as well. Despite all this, the 00Z HREF run (as well as recent HRRR runs) don't really simulate 0-3 km helicity swaths across much of our area until early this afternoon. Likely, these models are struggling to stretch any rotation to the sfc given little to no lower-level instability. Regardless, we do expect this cluster to continue to show signs of rotation as it enters out southern areas, which could generate a brief tornado or two this morning. Immediately following this initial line of convection, some instability is expected to blossom. As such, there still appears to be a short window where cell growth may coincide with enough curved low-level shear to create a better tornado threat early this afternoon. This signal is evident in the 00Z HREF and latest HRRR runs which depict more helicity swaths during this time period, particularly across our Sandhills and Coastal Plain through early this evening. Beyond the tornado threat today, given the strong flow just above the sfc, thunderstorm wind damage will be possible as well through this evening. Shear should become less curved by later this evening as the main tornado threat shifts closer to the coast. The previous discussion handles the other threats today quite well including flooding concerns. See below... 2 PM through roughly 8 PM - Gradient wind gusts will gradually begin to weaken in the wake of this first convective line. The stalled outflow and weakly stable cold pool left behind will act as a trigger for additional storm development where 250 to 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE is still available based on the 00z HREF. Mostly unidirectional wind field and straight hodographs will favor mostly a wind threat from bowing segments, although brief spinups within storm scale mesovortices will remain possible. This boundary will be oriented parallel to the deep layer shear vector and low-level convergence axis and favor training showers/storms with high rainfall rates. This is where a swath of greater rainfall totals of 1.5 to over 3" will be most probable (along and east of US-1 corridor). Additional development across the Piedmont is expected in the wake of the first round. Straight hodographs, steep lapse rates, and +1,000 J/kg of MLCAPE would support a mainly wind threat, but splitting cells and a localized hail risk will be possible, but greatly depend on the presence of deep convection with drier air moving in aloft. After 8 PM - The strong upper trough will begin to more aggressively shift eastward and shift the showers/storms eastward into eastern NC and return dry conditions to the area and push a cold front south and east of central NC overnight hours. Lows will depend greatly on the amount of CAA into the area, but trended towards warmer guidance (upper 40s to mid 50s). && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 250 AM Sunday... Clearing, windy, and much cooler Monday. Temperatures near freezing for portions of northern NC Monday night. The main axis of showers will push to our east by 12z/Monday. However, there is still a chance of showers mainly along and east of I-95 in the morning hours. The chance of showers will push east along with the mid/upper level trough axis during the early to mid afternoon. Most of the cloudiness will clear out of the west during the morning and in the east during the afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions are expected with NW winds at 15-25 mph, with gusts to 30 mph. Highs only near 60 NW ranging into the upper 60s SE. High pressure will build from the Gulf Coast states NE over the Appalachians Monday night. The winds will diminish and temperatures are expected to fall into the lower to mid 30s north and west and 35 to 40 east and south. &&. .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 250 AM Sunday... Mostly dry this week, temperatures up and down - averaging above normal. Highlights... the majority of the work week will be dry. There is a chance of showers mainly late Wednesday night into a part of Thursday as a cold front is forecast to push through central NC during the day. QPF will be light this week with only up to a tenth expected with the next frontal passage Thursday. It will turn chilly again behind the front Thursday night into Saturday, before moderating quickly again late in the weekend. A few specifics, expect plenty of sun with high pressure Tuesday and Wednesday as it slowly moves off the coast. Temperatures will quickly moderate back into the upper 60s to lower 70s Tuesday and into the mid 70s to lower 80s Wednesday. Lows will moderate in to the 40s to lower 50s Wednesday and Thursday. Highs Thursday with the chance of light showers will be in the mid 60s to near 80 NW to SE. The next chance of sub-freezing temperatures is Thursday night and Friday night (mainly in the rural northern and central Piedmont). Lows will likely dip into the lower 30s. Elsewhere, lows in the mid to upper 30s and highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s can be expected Thursday night through Saturday. Moderating temperatures are forecast this weekend with rain chances looking slim. && .AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 640 AM Sunday... MVFR cigs are common throughout the region and surface winds have been gusting to 25-35kt. A line of showers/isolated thunderstorms to our west will arrive in the Triad between 12z- 13z, then progress east. After 14z, mainly added a TEMPO or prevailing IFR conditions when the best timing of the broken line of convection moves through the terminals. Brief LIFR vsby will certainly will be possible during the late morning and afternoon when surface based convection will be most likely (RDU, FAY, RWI) and accompany better chances for severe wind gusts (> 50 kts). The pre-convection winds and wind gusts were generally kept sustained around 15-20 kts with gusts 35 to 40 kts. Some additional development of showers and storms will be possible behind the lead band of showers/storms, yet the evolution after the initial line is uncertain. Beyond 06Z Monday: Conditions will return to VFR with a wind shift to the NW late. Winds will not be nearly as strong with 10-15 kt. A chance of showers will persist, mainly in the east before 12z/Monday. Dry VFR conditions will return Monday and continue until another period of light showers and restrictions are possible Thursday. && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089. Wind Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ021>023-038-039-073-074-083. && SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Luchetti/Swiggett SHORT TERM...Badgett LONG TERM...Badgett AVIATION...Badgett/Swiggett
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 621 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 NCZ021>023-038-039-171030- Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Davidson-Randolph- 621 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move east through the area this morning between 8 AM and noon. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes will be possible during this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. NCZ073-074-083-171030- Stanly-Montgomery-Anson- 621 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...TORNADO WATCH 51 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. Wind Advisory. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move east through the area this morning between 8 AM and noon. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes will be possible during this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. NCZ075>077-084>086-088-089-171030- Moore-Lee-Harnett-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 621 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 ...TORNADO WATCH 51 IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. Wind Advisory. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move east through the area during the late morning and into the mid afternoon. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes will be possible. A second round of strong to severe thunderstorms could develop during the late afternoon and into the evening, resulting in a lingering threat of damaging winds and severe hail. Multiple rounds of showers and storms may result in a narrow swath of 2 to over 4 inches this afternoon into late evening. Ongoing drought may limit the threat of flash flooding to mainly urban and poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-078-171030- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Orange-Durham-Franklin-Nash- Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Wayne- 621 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Wind Advisory. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will move east through the area during the late morning and into the mid afternoon. Strong to locally damaging wind gusts and brief tornadoes will be possible. A second round of strong to severe thunderstorms could develop during the late afternoon and into the evening, resulting in a lingering threat of damaging winds and severe hail. Multiple rounds of showers and storms may result in a narrow swath of 2 to over 4 inches this afternoon into late evening. Ongoing drought may limit the threat of flash flooding to mainly urban and poor drainage areas. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
1004 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
NCZ022-023-038>040-073>076-083>086-161445-
Guilford NC-Anson NC-Hoke NC-Alamance NC-Davidson NC-Montgomery NC-
Moore NC-Scotland NC-Stanly NC-Richmond NC-Lee NC-Chatham NC-
Randolph NC-
1004 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOUTHWESTERN ALAMANCE...
SCOTLAND...SOUTHEASTERN DAVIDSON...EASTERN ANSON...MONTGOMERY...
RICHMOND...EASTERN STANLY...SOUTHWESTERN LEE...WESTERN HOKE...
MOORE...RANDOLPH...GUILFORD AND WESTERN CHATHAM COUNTIES THROUGH 1045
AM EDT...
At 1004 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 11 miles north of Badin Lake to 9 miles
northwest of Rockingham to Mechanicsville. Movement was northeast at
65 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Steeds, Badin, Harpers Crossroads, New London, Covington, Pekin, East
Rockingham, Staley, Climax, and Lake Townsend Marina.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 PM EDT for central North
Carolina.
&&
LAT...LON 3480 7968 3481 8004 3512 8010 3550 8027
3551 8019 3552 8018 3558 8021 3569 8034
3572 8033 3625 7973 3625 7970 3572 7931
3486 7922 3483 7925 3483 7935 3477 7933
3463 7947
TIME...MOT...LOC 1404Z 218DEG 56KT 3562 8008 3503 7987 3433 7976
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
CAThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 128 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:16 UTC.
13 hail, 9 thunderstorm wind, 2 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Duke energy reported an outage caused by fallen trees or limbs damaging equipment.
Trees were reported down in Derby.
Duke energy reported power outages caused by fallen trees or limbs damaging equipment.
Trees were reported down along Hwy 421 southeast of the town of Dunn.
Trees were reported down along Warrenton-Embro Rd.
Multiple reports of trees were reported down in Ansonville.
Two inch hail was reported.
Hail was reported up to a size of 1.75 inches.
One inch hail reported.
Two inch hail reported.
Hail was reported, with a measured diameter of 1.25 inches.
Delete this.
Quarter inch hail reported.
Quarter inch hail reported.
Quarter inch hail reported.
Hail was measured with a diameter of 1.25 inches.
Two inch hail was reported.
Broadcast media reported 1.5 inch diameter hail.
Hail was reported, with a size of 1.25 inches.
Trees were reported down near Hwy 705 and Charles Rd.
Multiple trees were reported down around Wadesboro.
Trees were reported down along US 15.
A stranded vehicle was reported due to flooding on Hoyle Dr in northeast Raleigh.
Pigeon House Branch exceeded its flood stage of 12ft at 10:25 PM, resulting in minor flood at Capital Blvd and Fenton St.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1245404, 1245406, 1245407, 1245411, 1245412, 1245408, 1243204, 1243205, 1243206, 1243207, 1243208, 1243211, 1243212, 1243213, 1243214, 1243215, 1243216, 1243218, 1243220, 1245410, 1245409, 1245413, 1245401, 1245402.