A strongly forced band of convection developed over the upper Ohio Valley in the morning ahead of an approaching front, with largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs. Despite the lack of strong low-level buoyancy, damaging winds become the primary impact across eastern Ohio.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PBZ wrote it up.
A strongly forced band of convection developed over the upper Ohio Valley in the morning ahead of an approaching front, with largely unidirectional southerly flow and elongated hodographs. Despite the lack of strong low-level buoyancy, damaging winds become the primary impact across eastern Ohio. Wind gusts of 60 to 70 MPH, perhaps higher in spots, were plentiful, creating numerous reports of damage to trees and power lines.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pittsburgh, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 16, 10:03 AM EST, 31 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1103 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a strong cold front crosses the region. Some storms could be severe. A few snow showers are possible early Monday before high pressure returns dry and warmer weather to the region through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Strong cold front crosses today - Showers and thunderstorms expected - Severe storms possible, with damaging wind and isolated tornadoes - Gusty wind outside of thunderstorms ------------------------------------------------------------------- A cold front currently crossing through central Ohio will cross the region, with convection developing ahead of the front late this morning and into the afternoon. Strong speed and directional shear with a low level jet max of 50-70kt at 850mb is progged, as well as CAPE values between 500 and 750j/kg. Latest CAMs hint towards storms in a line or broken line, and given the current synoptic situation and several hours of plentiful solar insolation to bolster sfc instability, the threat of damaging wind and possible QLCS tornadoes has increased. After coordination with SPC, a Tornado Watch has been issued, and is valid until 4PM this afternoon. Wind gusts to 40mph are also possible outside of any storms with mixing and a tight surface pressure gradient during the day. The low's surface cold front is progged to cross the region by mid to late afternoon. Additional showers and storms are likely with the front, though instability and shear is progged to be less than with the earlier activity. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... KEY MESSAGES: - Rain changes to snow before ending Monday - Dry and warmer Tuesday ------------------------------------------------------------------- Rain is expected to change to snow overnight into early Monday in cold advection after FROPA, and as the upper trough axis crosses the region. No accumulation is expected for most of the area, though an inch or less is possible across the higher terrain areas. Wind should also diminish tonight as the surface pressure gradient begins to lessen. Dry weather and a clearing trend is then expected Monday afternoon through Tuesday night as high pressure builds across the region. After a brief cool down on Monday, temperatures should return to 10 to 15 degrees above average by Tuesday. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... KEY MESSAGES: - Dry Wednesday - Rain chances return Wednesday night through Thursday night - Warm Thursday, then cooler through the weekend ------------------------------------------------------------------- Model ensembles indicate an amplified pattern to start mid week. Ridging, ahead of a central CONUS trough, will maintain dry weather on Wednesday. This trough, and its associated surface low, will advance eastward Wednesday night through Thursday, crossing the region region Thursday night. Increasing rain chances are expected with its approach and passage. The rain could mix with or change to snow late Thursday and Thursday night in cold advection behind the low. The flow is progged to become less amplified by late week. Weaker, fast moving disturbances are expected to be embedded in this flow. Dry weather is expected to return Friday under high pressure, though another fast moving trough/surface low is progged for Saturday, returning showers to the region. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... A deep upper level low will create scattered lighter rain showers in between two surface boundaries that will be the main focus of impact through the afternoon. The first, currently in eastern OH as of 12z, may develop a line of notably gusty winds between 30-40kts but may intensify through 15z as it lifts NE and increase lightning production. A second boundary will develop shortly after that along a S to SW wind shift between 16z-21z, and again will pose the risk for lightning, wind gust between 35-45kt (and locally higher), and small hail. Confidence is fairly low on the exact timing for potential terminal impacts given varied model guidance projections and current struggles in capturing near-term environment. The expectation is for a cold front to cross between 22z-04z tonight that will see wind subside (but remain breezy) and bring areawide MVFR with localized IFR cigs. Remnant influence of the upper low and the onset of cold advection may regenerate iso/sct showers that transition to snow and favor northwest PA. At this time, accumulations are expected to be minimal given meager moisture/temperature profiles. Outlook... Precipitation will taper off Monday morning while subsidence and dry advection slowly erode area MVFR stratocu; there is high confidence in VFR returning to sites by 18z (only 10-25% probability of MVFR cigs lingering). There is high confidence in VFR under the influence of high pressure until the next low pressure system crosses the region late Wednesday into Thursday. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for WVZ514. && SYNOPSIS...88 NEAR TERM...88 SHORT TERM...WM LONG TERM...WM AVIATION...Frazier
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 1034 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029- 031-073>078-WVZ001>004-012-021-509>513-171445- Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH- Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest- Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong- Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Higher Elevations of Westmoreland- Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-Indiana- Higher Elevations of Indiana-Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel- Marion-Monongalia- Ridges of Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston- Eastern Preston-Western Tucker- 1034 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 ...TORNADO WATCH 53 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for east central Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures. WVZ514-171445- Eastern Tucker- 1034 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... ...TORNADO WATCH 53 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON... This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the Internet for more information about the following hazards. Tornado Watch. Wind Advisory. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
636 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
OHZ039-048-057-058-068-161115-
Muskingum OH-Noble OH-Tuscarawas OH-Coshocton OH-Guernsey OH-
636 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT EASTERN MUSKINGUM...
NORTHWESTERN NOBLE...SOUTHEASTERN COSHOCTON...GUERNSEY AND
SOUTHWESTERN TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM EDT...
At 636 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from near Coshocton to 14 miles southeast of
South Zanesville, or extending from near Coshocton to 16 miles
southeast of Zanesville, moving northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Coshocton, Cambridge, Newcomerstown, New Concord, Byesville, West
Lafayette, Gnadenhutten, Philo, Port Washington, Pleasant Grove,
Pleasant City, Cumberland, Conesville, Lore City, Old Washington,
Plainfield, Norwich, Otsego, Bridgeville and Chandlersville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
&&
LAT...LON 4016 8197 4020 8197 4043 8145 4026 8141
3988 8148 3976 8176 3977 8193
TIME...MOT...LOC 1036Z 216DEG 45KT 4021 8189 3996 8183 3974 8188
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
MLBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
701 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
OHZ039-040-049-058-161145-
Carroll OH-Tuscarawas OH-Harrison OH-Guernsey OH-
701 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025
...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL HARRISON...
CARROLL...NORTHEASTERN GUERNSEY AND TUSCARAWAS COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM
EDT...
At 701 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a line of strong
thunderstorms extending from 14 miles northwest of Strasburg to 5
miles northeast of Cambridge, or extending from 19 miles northwest
of Dover to 5 miles northeast of Cambridge, moving northeast at 60
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
Locations impacted include...
New Philadelphia, Dover, Uhrichsville, Carrollton, Freeport,
Newcomerstown, Dennison, Strasburg, Sugarcreek, Gnadenhutten,
Antrim, Malvern, Tuscarawas, Bolivar, Baltic, Scio, Midvale,
Mineral City, Jewett and Port Washington.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Monitor the weather situation closely and be alert for threatening
weather conditions.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 4063 8166 4063 8167 4065 8147 4067 8146
4066 8144 4065 8145 4065 8124 4072 8124
4073 8115 4046 8094 4042 8094 4042 8092
4039 8091 4005 8148 4025 8162 4037 8162
4037 8170 4038 8171 4044 8171 4044 8167
TIME...MOT...LOC 1101Z 212DEG 52KT 4075 8171 4028 8152 4008 8152
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
MLBThe Cincinnati radar (KILN), 152 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 15:35 UTC.
23 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Downed trees and power lines were reported in the area.
Downed trees and power lines were reported in the area.
Trees and power poles were downed in the southern part of the county, especially in the Roseville area.
Multiple reports of tree and power line damage were received from across the county.
Downed trees and power lines were reported in the area of Conesville.
Estimated by a public observer.
Downed trees and power lines were reported in the area of Baltic.
A tree was reported down on Country Club Road.
In Port Washington, downed trees and power line were reported.
Downed trees and power lines were reported in the area of Dover.
Downed trees and power line were reported in the area of Mineral City.
Downed trees and power lines were reported in the area of Uhrichsville.
Downed trees and power lines were reported in the area of Dellroy.
Malvern had reports of downed trees and power lines.
Near the intersection of Steubenville Road SE and Bay Road SE, downed trees were reported.
Numerous trees were reported down near Harlem Springs.
Hanoverton had several reports of downed trees and power lines in the area.
Downed trees and power lines were reported in the area of Salineville.
Downed trees and power lines were reported in the area of Lisbon.
East Palestine had several reports of downed trees and power lines.
At the intersection of Heck Road and Poland Road, a large tree was downed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Ohio in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in Ohio, March 2025
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1249383, 1249386, 1249387, 1249388, 1249389, 1249425, 1249427, 1249390, 1249823, 1249391, 1249392, 1249394, 1249395, 1249397, 1249401, 1249404, 1249407, 1249409, 1249412, 1249415, 1249417, 1249418, 1249422.