Damaging Wind and High Wind in North Carolina, March 16, 2025

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1022 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A powerful storm system brings widespread severe weather to the
area tonight into tomorrow morning, likely producing damaging winds
and several tornadoes.  Drier weather returns early next week,
with cooler temperatures expect on Monday, before hotter weather
returns Tuesday and Wednesday.  A quick bout of rain is expected
Wednesday night or Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Saturday: The forecast continues to look on
track. The northern extent of the frontal convective band has
largely become an area of moderate rain with embedded weakening
tstms. As expected, the strongest convection is now over central
AL, and this activity is expected to gradually drift NE into
northern GA, with embedded rotating cells knocking on the door
of the CWFA around 5-6z. There is still a chance a Tornado Watch
may be needed for parts of the CWFA, but with the brunt of the
strong storms expected late tonight, no watch has been issued for
any of our counties. As for heavy rain/flood threat, rainfall so
far has been light in the SELY upslope areas of the western NC
mountains. Locally over 0.5" has been reported in the last six
hours, but most areas have seen only 0.1" or less. This bodes well
for when the heaviest rain comes thru overnight. Still expecting
1-3" in the upslope-favored areas of the mountains, which is under
flash flood guidance. With that said, some advisory-level/minor
flooding cannot be ruled out.

Otherwise...The severe parameters look similar to the previous
forecasts of CAPE generally in the 250-500 J/kg range for
surface-based air parcels with strong and deep forcing and extreme
shear parameters associated with a 60-70kt southerly low level
jet. Convective modes are expected to be mixed and a bit messy,
with the potential for discrete mini-supercells along the leading
edge of a broader convective band, while short line segments,
possibly containing embedded supercell structures along with more
typical QLCS mesovortices are expected to be the more predominant
mode. 0-1km storm relative helicity in excess of 500 J/kg will
support tornado potential with any supercell structures, with 1
or 2 significant tornadoes possible across western areas during
early part of the overnight where less-modest buoyancy may briefly
coexist with favorable wind profiles. Low level bulk shear in excess
of 50 kts will also support the potential for strong mesovortex
development within linear segments, posing additional potential
for isolated tornadoes along with enhanced wind damage potential.

In addition to the severe storm threat, steepening low level lapse
rates this evening will increase the potential for higher momentum
air from aloft to mix to the surface, even in the lower mtn valleys,
where gusts of 40-50 mph may occur ahead of the convection this
evening. Meanwhile, the higher peaks and ridgetops will likely
see gusts of 60-70 mph tonight. Expect the very windy conditions
to develop across the area overnight as any mixing will bring the
strong winds down to the surface. Some locations may not quite see
Wind Advisory level gusts, but given the expected impacts, think
an Advisory is good to have in place. Therefore, have expanded the
Wind Advisory for all of the area with the mountains starting at
the same time and the non-mountains at midnight. Finally, intense
convection will result in locally high rainfall rates, especially
on south- facing slopes, where isolated rainfall amounts of up
to 3 to possibly 4 inches over a time frame of 3-6 hours. Some
locally excessive rainfall therefore appears likely in the usual
flood-prone areas of the southern NC mountains, but the threat is
expected to be too localized to warrant a Flood Watch at this time.

Convection and attendant severe weather threat will move east of
the forecast area by late Sunday morning. However, the surface cold
front will still be west of the Appalachians Sunday morning, and in
fact will not cross most of the area until afternoon. Additional
showers and perhaps a thunderstorm or two will be possible during
this time, but shear and buoyancy parameters are not expected to
be supportive of severe convection with any frontal convection
Sunday afternoon. In fact, the latest guidance shows less coverage
of any convection along the front. Showers return to the mountains
as moisture returns ahead of the upper low. Max temps will be well
above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1252 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Cooler conditions expected through the first part of next week.

2) Breezy conditions will continue on Monday, and taper off
on Tuesday.

3) Critical RHs are expected on Tuesday, resulting in at least low-
end fire concerns.

The core of low-level CAA will pass across the forecast area Sunday
night, inciting breezy conditions across the western Carolinas as
it does so and preventing the boundary layer from decoupling. Some
spread still in temperature guidance, though predictably, those
models which depict stronger cold advection also depict cooler lows.
Generally, still expect lows near normal for most of the region.
Some lingering NW flow precipitation can be expected along the
NC-TN border through daybreak, though temperatures will be warm
enough that nearly all should be rain, and any snow flurries that
manage to develop won't produce accumulations.

Following the departure of the cold front, surface high pressure
will ridge up out of the Gulf, rapidly offsetting those cooler
temps.  Highs on Monday can be expected to land a category
or so below normal (the lower 60s for the non-mountain zones)
amid mostly clear skies and breezy winds.  It appears that the
axis of lowest thicknesses will arrive Monday evening, allowing
temperatures to fall a solid category below normal Monday night.
Radiative cooling may add to this effect, as profiles suggest skies
should remain clear through the night...with the limiting factor
likely to be winds, which may in some locations be just elevated
enough to keep the boundary layer mixed.  Lows may drop into the
mid- to upper-30s across even the low terrain (and to near freezing
in the mountains), but aforementioned elevated winds will preclude
a widespread frost threat.

By Tuesday, as the core of low-level ridging slides out over the
Eastern Seaboard, significant drying will occur in the low levels
and there's high confidence on reaching critical RH across much of
the forecast area during the afternoon.  Winds currently appear
benign, such that Red Flag conditions aren't expected, but with
RHs potentially falling to near or below 20%, fire danger will
become a necessary consideration.  Temperatures Tuesday should
also tick back upward with the ridge, resulting in highs some 6-9
degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 154 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Critical RHs will return Wednesday, and may be paired with
breezy conditions, elevating fire danger.

2) The next rain event is expected Wednesday night and Thursday,
but isn't currently expected to pose a threat of severe weather
or flooding.

3) Critical RHs may return behind a cold front Friday and Saturday.

Surface ridging will begin to break down mid-week in response
to cyclogenesis over the central Great Plains and a cold front
pushing across the Tennessee Valley.  On Wednesday, we'll wind up
back in something akin to a warm sector, as the front approaches,
but the frontal circulation looks to be deteriorating by this time,
and moisture transport out ahead of it will be anemic...so with
strong mixing and no moisture to mix down, critical RHs are likely
once again Wednesday.  In fact, with southerly winds beginning to
pick up steam by this point, Wednesday may turn out to be a better
case for fire danger than Tuesday.

Rain should begin sometime Wednesday evening or overnight as the
actual front arrives, but should pass through quickly with little
fanfare.  Currently have a chance PoP advertised from late Wednesday
evening through the first part of Thursday night, but this is due
to timing differences in ensemble solutions - rain shouldn't last
this long, it's just unclear when exactly it'll occur.  Significant
thunder also isn't expected with this system, which sans much low-
level moisture will struggle to maintain any good buoyancy.

Friday, strong post-frontal CAA will result in another round of
breezy conditions and drying.  Critical RHs may return again over
the weekend, though it's too soon to accurately gauge fire danger
other than having it on our radar.  Temperatures will also drop
back to near or even slightly below normal behind the front.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR this evening with mainly mid and high
clouds and few to sct low-VFR cu. Showers off to the west, may
impact KAVL, but will go with VCSH. Later tonight, a broad band of
showers with embedded TS possible will cross the area along/ahead
of a cold front. Tried to narrow timing based on latest guidance,
with prevailing SHRA and PROB30 TSRA. Gusty S/SE wind expected to
ramp up just ahead of the main precip, may be variable when the
deepest convection crosses over. There may be a brief lull in wind
gusts as precip stabilizes the low-levels, but should become gusty
again and continue thru the day, mainly out of the SW. Confidence
on cigs is low, but looks to be mainly in the MVFR range late
tonight until around midday Sunday. The cold front will push to
the east allowing cigs to lift and scatter out to VFR in the aftn.

Outlook: However, scattered showers and perhaps a thunderstorm
or two may linger Sunday evening across the mountains. Dry high
pressure returns by early Monday and remains through Wednesday. A
weak cold front may bring scattered showers and associated
restrictions on Thursday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ010-017.
     Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-
     062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ035>037-056-057-
     068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510.
SC...Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for SCZ101>103.
     Wind Advisory until 2 PM EDT Sunday for SCZ008>014-019-104>109.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR
NEAR TERM...ARK/RWH
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...ARK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1205 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008>014-019-101>109-170415-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
1205 AM EDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EDT SUNDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, Piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and Upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

A powerful storm system will impact the region tonight bringing
heavy rain and severe storms. The main hazards with any severe storms
that develop are damaging wind gusts and tornadoes. A strong tornado
or two cannot be ruled out. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall may
result in isolated flash flooding, especially across the southwest
North Carolina mountains and the South Carolina and Georgia
mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

Severe storms will continue pushing across the area through early
Sunday morning keeping the potential for damaging wind gusts and
tornadoes around. Strong to severe storms may redevelop Sunday
afternoon but confidence is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

AR

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1114 PM EDT Sat Mar 15 2025

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1025 PM     Non-Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 SSW Cherokee          35.44N 83.34W
03/15/2025                   Jackson            NC   Emergency Mngr

            Tree on a house in Whittier area. Neighbors
            saw it fall around 1025 PM.

&&

Wimberley