NWS Albany, NY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 6, 6:59 PM EST, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 6, 6:59 PM EST, 1 hour 1 minute before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
659 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry conditions have returned to the region with
upslope and lake effect snow showers anticipated to begin this
afternoon through Friday in the Southwest Adirondacks, Eastern
Catskills, and Southern Greens. Winds become gusty this afternoon
through Friday as yesterday's storm system continues to exit to the
north and east. With cooler air pouring into the region,
temperatures will drop through the end of this week and into the
first half of the weekend before moderating for the latter half and
into the beginning of the next work week. A fairly tranquil pattern
ensues with only minor chances for precipitation over the next seven
days.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
.UPDATE...As of 650 PM EST, mostly cloudy skies with falling
temperatures across the region. A few sprinkles were ongoing
across portions of southwest Litchfield County, CT into eastern
portions of the mid Hudson Valley, with snow showers developing
across the SW Adirondacks and western Mohawk Valley.
Snow showers should continue to increase in areal coverage over
the next 1-2 hours across the SW Adirondacks as an upper level
trough slowly pivots east. Some snow showers/flurries will also
expand into the Mohawk Valley and Schoharie County, with some
flurries/snow showers possibly extending into the Capital Region
after 9 PM. Upslope snow showers will also develop across
portions of southern VT into the Berkshires between 10 PM and
midnight, and should persist for several hours.
Snowfall accumulations overnight of 2-4 inches are expected
across northern Herkimer County, with 1-3 inches across central
and southern Herkimer County into Hamilton County, as well as
across upslope areas of SW VT. Elsewhere, scattered coatings to
less than an inch are possible across the central/eastern Mohawk
Valley extending into Capital Region.
Winds will continue to increase tonight, especially after
midnight as the mid level trough passes and winds within the
lower/mid levels of the atmosphere align from the west/northwest
and maximize downward momentum transfer. Gusts up to 50 mph will
become possible within the advisory areas at that time.
Temperatures will continue to drop through the 30s in valley
areas, and 20s across higher elevations through this evening,
with low temps around daybreak mainly 20s for valley areas and
teens across higher elevations.
Key Messages:
- Winds will be on the increase this afternoon, becoming gusty
overnight with gusts ranging from 40 to 55 mph. A Wind
Advisory remains in effect from 4 PM this afternoon through 4
PM Friday for much of eastern New York and western New
England.
Discussion:
Yesterday's storm system has settled into southern Quebec with
its associated cold front now well upstream, continuing to push
eastward into Maine. Though the cyclone itself is departing, we
will continue to see impacts from it through the end of the
week. With the axis of a larger-scale, trough negatively tilted
through the region aloft and the surface low almost directly
overhead, we remain embedded within westerly, cyclonic flow that
has allowed cold air to continuously advect into the region
throughout the day. As such, temperatures have continued to fall
from northwest to southeast with values currently in the upper
20s to low 40s with pockets of upper 40s in the lower Mid-Hudson
Valley and southwest Connecticut. Temperatures will continue to
fall through the overnight period tonight with lows progged to
reach the 10s and 20s.
This evening and into tonight, an additional wind shift is
anticipated as a surface wave rotates about the southern
periphery of the low pressure cyclone pushing farther to our
north and east. Simultaneously, a mid to upper-level shortwave
will rotate through the region as the primary trough begins to
fill to the northeast. As a result of this occurrence, winds
will veer more to the northwest, strengthening the cold air
advection. The combination of the favored wind direction for
channeling down the valleys and downsloping off the higher
terrain, the increase in the pressure gradient on the rear flank
of the low and as a result of the fill of the upper-level
trough, and the strengthening of the 850mb LLJ to 50 to 60 kt
which should be tapped into due to sufficient low-level mixing
and subsequent momentum transfer in the face of the colder air
will make for gusty winds overnight. At present, winds have
already begun to pick up out of the west with sustained speeds
ranging from 10 to 15 mph and gusts of 15 to 25 mph mainly in
the favored regions of the Mohawk Valley and Greater Capital
District. However, a significant increase to sustained speeds of
15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 to 55 mph is anticipated by 6
AM tomorrow morning. The strongest gusts will occur within the
Mohawk Valley, Greater Capital District, Eastern Catskills,
Taconics, Berkshires, and Southern Greens. However, many areas
outside of these will also experience strong gusts. Therefore, a
Wind Advisory remains in effect from 4 PM this afternoon
through 4 PM tomorrow afternoon for much of the region with the
exception of portions of the Southwest Adirondacks and Upper-
Hudson Valley where confidence is lower in Advisory-level wind
gust speeds (46 mph or greater) being met.
Currently seen on the latest scans of regional radar are
areas of snow showers crossing through western and central New
York. With increased surface convergence ahead of and along the
incoming surface wave paired with additional forcing for ascent
with the closely attendant shortwave aloft, these showers will
be allowed to spread into the region within the next couple of
hours. Upslope flow will promote enhancement of ascent in the
Southwest Adirondacks, Eastern Catskills, and Southern Vermont
where light accumulations of a couple of tenths to upwards of an
inch and a half are anticipated overnight. It is possible that
some of these showers also make it as far as the eastern Mohawk
Valley and Upper-Hudson Valley but accumulations will be
generally under a half an inch.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:
- Gusty winds will continue through tomorrow afternoon with the
Wind Advisory remaining in effect through 4 PM. Wind gusts of
40 to 55 mph will be common especially through tomorrow
morning.
- Temperatures continue to trend downward through Saturday
before beginning to moderate Sunday.
Discussion:
As the aforementioned low continues to spin just to our north
and east, northwest winds prevail allowing upslope snow showers
to become more like lake effect showers Friday morning into the
afternoon except in the Southern Greens where light upslope
showers could continue. However, as of this afternoon, a
secondary coastal low has developed just off the New England
Coast and latest guidance indicates it will become the new
primary low by tomorrow morning as the former weakens and
becomes almost stationary and the latter strengthens and
retrogrades into Atlantic Canada by tomorrow morning. While
there is some uncertainty in their spatial spread, latest
guidance is indicating some additional wrap around snow showers
in addition to the lake effect especially in the Southwest
Adirondacks through tomorrow afternoon. Luckily, moisture on the
back side of this system is rather limited so additional
accumulations here will be relatively light. This will be
especially true since northwest flow will promote lake effect
bands developing off the shorter fetch of Lake Ontario, leading
to bands drifting more into the Eastern Catskills rather than
the same locations of the Southwest Adirondacks being hit with
multiple rounds of snow showers. Additional accumulations in the
Eastern Catskills will also be minimal. With rapid flow in
place, lake effect bands will likely drift into the Capital
Region but any accumulations will generally be less than an
inch. Dry conditions are anticipated elsewhere.
Gusty winds will also continue through tomorrow afternoon as the
deepening of the "new" low and the flattening of the trough
aloft will sustain the increased pressure gradient.
Additionally, sufficient mixing and the persistence (though
weakening) of the LLJ will help support gusts of 40 to 55 mph
especially through tomorrow morning before winds back to the
west again by tomorrow afternoon. So, while winds will be on a
decreasing trend throughout the day, we will maintain the Wind
Advisory through tomorrow afternoon until the threat of strong
to potentially damaging gusts significantly decreases.
Additional rounds of light showers will continue in the
Southwest Adirondacks and Eastern Catskills through late Friday
night or early Saturday morning as additional disturbances
rotate through the mean flow aloft. Once again additional
accumulations will be very minimal. Regionwide dry conditions
return for Saturday before additional chances for some upslope
snow showers return to our high terrain areas Saturday night
into Sunday at the passage of a back door cold front. Some
additional light lake effect snow showers will linger into
Sunday, but generally dry conditions are anticipated through the
remainder of the period.
High temperatures tomorrow will range from the upper 20s at
higher elevations to low 40s and possible pockets of mid 40s in
the lower Mid-Hudson Valley. However, it is possible that
sufficient mixing will drive temperatures above guidance in
valley areas. Lows Friday night will fall to the 10s and 20s
before highs Saturday only "warm" to the 20s and 30s with
pockets near 40 in the lower Mid-Hudson Valley. Saturday night's
lows will be similar to those of Friday night with highs Sunday
also similar to those of Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The long term period will feature one primary chance for
precipitation before a period of tranquil conditions. That
chance comes Monday when a clipper low pressure system sinks
south and east towards the region from southern Ontario,
bringing some snow and rain showers or a mix thereof mainly to
areas within, north and east of the Capital District Monday
morning through Monday evening. Dry conditions are then
anticipated Tuesday and Wednesday behind this progressive system
as high pressure builds east. Some guidance is indicating a weak
disturbance that could bring some light rain showers by the end
of the period, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty in this
possibility in the guidance at this time.
Temperatures will follow along the moderating trend that will
have begun on Sunday with highs beginning Monday in the
mid/upper 30s to low 50s and rising to the mid/upper 40s to low
and possibly mid 60s by Wednesday. Lows will start in the 20s to
low 30s Monday night but will be in the upper 20s to low 40s by
Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A storm system continues to depart off the coast of eastern New
England and much colder air aloft is moving back into the region
behind the exiting system.
Moisture wrapping around this low will keep plenty of clouds
around overnight, with Cigs ranging from VFR to MVFR, with MVFR
Cigs more likely and persistent at KPSF. A few snow showers may
occur this evening at KGFL, KALB and KPSF with MVFR Vsbys. On
Friday, MVFR Cigs at KPSF should become VFR, with mainly VFR
conditions expected elsewhere. However, scattered afternoon snow
showers may produce brief periods of MVFR/IFR Vsbys and MVFR
Cigs at KALB and KPSF.
Strong west to northwest winds will increase to 10-20 KT
overnight with gusts of 25 to 35 KT possible through Friday.
Some gusts could reach as high as 40-45 KT late Friday morning
into the afternoon at KALB and KPSF.
Outlook...
Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 34 kts. NO SIG WX.
Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Latest USGS Mohawk River Ice Jam Monitoring webcams have been
indicating ice movement along the Mohawk River near Schenectady.
Ice is jamming up along the banks of the Mohawk River between
the Union College Boat House in Schenectady and near Freeman's
Bridge. However, there is some flow continuing in the middle,
with upstream cameras near Lock 8 and 9 indicating less ice.
Overall flows behind the ice are decreasing at this time, so
although there is ice in place, at least at this time, flooding
threat appears low. However, will continue to monitor trends
this evening and overnight along with real-time obs.
&&
.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for CTZ001-013.
NY...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for NYZ038>041-047>054-
058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for MAZ001-025.
VT...Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Friday for VTZ013-014.
&&
SYNOPSIS...Gant
NEAR TERM...Gant/KL
SHORT TERM...Gant
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...KL
HYDROLOGY...KL