California, 2025

Drought in California, March 1 to 31, 2025

March 1 to 31, 2025 · NWS HNX · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

Moderate drought conditions persisted throughout the Kern County desert areas in March due to a long term precipitation deficit.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS HNX wrote it up.

Moderate drought conditions persisted throughout the Kern County desert areas in March due to a long term precipitation deficit.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hanford, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 8:40 PM PST, 3 hours 20 minutes earlier. Its key messages:

  • 1. A Wind Advisory continues through 7 PM this evening for the Grapevine area. Gusts to 45 mph are possible along Interstate 5. 3. A storm system moving through the area this weekend will bring a 60 to 90 percent chance for snowfall greater than 6 inches in the Sierra Nevada above 4,500 feet. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued valid from 10 PM Saturday through 10 PM Monday. 3. Stronger winds gusts associated with the upcoming system will bring a 70 to 90 percent chance for wind gusts greater than 45 mph each day between Saturday and Tuesday to the Mojave Desert slopes. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the area as a result. 4. Below average temperatures are expected through the next week beginning Saturday.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 8:40 PM PST, 3 hours 20 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
840 PM PST Fri Feb 28 2025

.UPDATE...Updated Aviation.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. A Wind Advisory continues through 7 PM this evening for the
Grapevine area. Gusts to 45 mph are possible along Interstate 5.

3. A storm system moving through the area this weekend will
bring a 60 to 90 percent chance for snowfall greater than 6
inches in the Sierra Nevada above 4,500 feet. A Winter Weather
Advisory has been issued valid from 10 PM Saturday through 10 PM
Monday.

3. Stronger winds gusts associated with the upcoming system
will bring a 70 to 90 percent chance for wind gusts greater than
45 mph each day between Saturday and Tuesday to the Mojave
Desert slopes. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the area as
a result.

4. Below average temperatures are expected through the next
week beginning Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An upper level low pressure system is currently sitting off the
coast of southern California this morning, entraining
widespread cloud cover across the San Joaquin Valley. Cyclonic
flow around the system has gradually picked up vast amounts of
moisture from the eastern Pacific, which is making its way
through central California from the Southwest. Low level winds
associated with this system descended along the Grapevine
section of Interstate 5, leading to strong gusts upwards of 50
miles per hour. This caused the issuance of a High Wind Warning,
though winds have gradually decreased this morning, and fallen
below the warning threshold. As stronger wind gusts remain
possible through the remainder of the day, a Wind Advisory has
replaced the High Wind Warning; southeast winds 10 to 20 miles
per hour are expected with gusts up to 45 miles per hour.

More stable conditions are expected to return on Saturday as
the aforementioned system passes to the south of central
California. Ensemble model guidance expresses a weakening on the
north side of the low, resulting in mainly clear skies with
light winds across the region.

Our next pattern change will come on Sunday as an upper level
trough drops southward in the eastern Pacific to the California
coast. Cyclonic flow around the trough is expected to force
increased amounts of moisture over central California from the
southwest. While there is increased moisture, this system will
quickly move through the region, exiting the area Monday
afternoon. However, in this time frame the system is anticipated
to bring snowfall to the Sierra Nevada above 4500 feet, with a
60 to 90 percent chance for greater than 6 inches between 4 PM
Saturday and 4 PM Monday. A Winter Weather Advisory has been
issued valid from 10 PM Saturday through 10 PM Monday as total
snow accumulations 4 to 10 inches are expected above 4500 feet,
with up to 14 inches at the higher elevations. In addition to
snowfall, strong wind gusts are expected along the crests, with
a 50 to 80 percent chance of maximum gusts greater than 50 miles
per hour.

Much of the heavier precipitation associated with this storm
will be located in the Sierra Nevada, however there are
favorable chances (50 to 90 percent) for a wetting rain greater
than one tenth of an inch in the San Joaquin Valley; the lowest
chances are expected in the valley areas of Kern County west of
Bakersfield. The following are probabilities to exceed 0.25
inches in the 48 hours ending at 4 AM Monday.

Bakersfield    17%
Coalinga      31%
Fresno        48%
Hanford       38%
Lake Isabella 53%
Mariposa      87%
Merced        44%
Visalia       50%

While these probabilities hold true, there is potential for
localized totals greater than those listed above as there is a
10 to 20 percent chance for thunderstorms Sunday afternoon,
especially in the eastern San Joaquin Valley and into the
foothill areas.

Downsloping winds in Tehachapi mountains will bring stronger
wind gusts to the Mojave Desert Slopes through Tuesday morning,
with a 70 to 90 percent chance for maximum gusts to exceed 45
miles per hour each day. A Wind Advisory has been issued valid
from 4 PM Saturday through 4 AM Tuesday; west winds 25 to 35
miles per hour are expected with gusts up to 60 miles per hour.

Model cluster analysis indicates that a second upper level
trough is favorable to build into the region in the wake of this
weekend’s system exiting the western US. While there is good
agreement in a system developing, there is still some
disagreement in exact location and intensity of the system. As
for now, there are widespread probabilities from the National
Blend of Models for precipitation greater than 0.1 inches across
48 hours ending 4 AM Friday. There also exists a 40 to 70
percent chance for snowfall greater than 4 inches in the Sierra
Nevada. In addition to the conditions stated above, the changing
pattern over the next week will cause temperatures across the
region to fall below normal for this time of year.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Saturday Update: VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
Central California interior for the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for
CAZ338.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 10 PM PST
Monday for CAZ323-326>331.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ335.
&&

SM/JPK/BSO/EW

weather.gov/hanford

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Indian Wells Valley

When
March 1, 12:00 AM PST to March 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Indian Wells Valley forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
35.343, -118.730 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Indian Wells Valley was classified as being in an moderate drought due to a long term precipitation deficit.

Drought, Mojave Desert Slope(S)

When
March 1, 12:00 AM PST to March 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Mojave Desert Slope(S) forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
35.343, -118.730 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Mojave Desert Slopes were classified as being in an moderate drought due to a long term precipitation deficit.

Drought, Mojave Desert

When
March 1, 12:00 AM PST to March 31, 11:59 PM PST
Where
Mojave Desert forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
35.343, -118.730 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The Mojave Desert was classified as being in an moderate drought due to a long term precipitation deficit.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in California in 2025Every state in 2025This day in weather historyWarnings in California, March 2025

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1233420, 1233421, 1233422.