An upper-level low lifting through the region led to strong wind gusts on the afternoon of September 2nd.
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The episode as NWS PDT wrote it up.
An upper-level low lifting through the region led to strong wind gusts on the afternoon of September 2nd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Pendleton, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 2, 11:56 AM PST, 2 hours 4 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pendleton OR 1256 PM PDT Mon Sep 2 2024 .UPDATED AVIATION...18Z TAFs...VFR conditions expected through the period with the possibility of MVFR near and around PDT/ALW/PSC for thunderstorms. Some storms may become severe, especially near PDT and ALW with increased winds up to 30-40kts and hail starting around 00Z. Breezy conditions outside of thunderstorms across all TAF sites through the early morning for all sites except the DLS/PDT which will remain elevated with gusts 20-30kts. Bennese/90 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 303 AM PDT Mon Sep 2 2024/ SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday night...A closed low located 95 miles WSW of the southwest OR coast has been a forecast challenge in terms of intensity and location of thunderstorms as well as QPF for today and tonight. Models have been consistent on the track of the system, but the differences have been in the details. There have been a few embedded waves ahead of the low that have brought isolated showers and thunderstorms over the past 12 hours...mainly south of Bend and southeast Oregon. Rainfall amounts have been less than 0.1" and there have also been outflow gusts as high as 47 mph in two location, including a 47 mph outflow from a shower at The Dalles Sunday evening. This increases confidence (80%) that showers and thunderstorms will produce additional outflows ranging from 45-55 mph gusts today. There is a chance of stronger outflows for northeast OR, and SPC has placed this area in a marginal risk for severe weather. Based on inverted V profiles and DCAPES exceeding 1000 J/kg, there is around a 5-10% probability of damaging outflows in the area of marginal risk. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast for all of the forecast area today, as each embedded wave is different from model to model and from run to run. The probability increases to numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms over the Blues and Wallowas tonight but probabilities decrease to the west. PWATs will increase to around 0.75 to 1.0". CAMS show a 60% chance of 0.1-0.2" and a 40% chance of 0.25" in the Blues and Wallowas. It is surprising that models are not showing more QPF based on the position of the left exit region of the jet and upper level diffluence that will help sustain updrafts. Red flag warnings will not be issued based on the moderate confidence that some storms will bring heavy rain, but the strong outflows definitely pose a concern. Those outdoor this Labor Day need to be aware of the threats expected today, and this will be ramped up in social media posts. The low will make its exit on Tuesday, but not before it brings showers and isolated thunderstorms to the northeast mountains in the morning...mainly Wallowa County (confidence 60%). By Tuesday morning, the atmosphere will be moistened up with PWATs around 1 inch. Storm motion will be around 15-20 kt so the threat of flash flooding is low (less than 20%). High pressure aloft building behind the system Tuesday night and Wednesday will return dry and warm weather. Tuesday's temperatures will be near seasonal and Wednesday will be slightly above seasonal average. Another concern in the short term...albeit minor...will be the tightening gradients behind the closed low that will result in breezy to locally windy conditions through this evening across the Columbia Basin, eastern CR Gorge, Kittitas Valley, and down across central and north central OR. Winds will gradually decrease overnight, and Tuesday will be locally breezy. Wister/85 LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...The long term remains hot and dry as high pressure maintains control for the most part through the period, with a passing system possible next week that seems to be throwing model ensembles for a loop on how to resolve the forecast thereafter, as a swath of outcomes brings uncertainty late in the period. Long term begins under the aforementioned high pressure centered over the Desert Southwest, with an area of low pressure offshore of California. This high will hold the region under it's control through Friday, keeping us notably and unseasonably hot. The ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) shows above normal temperatures Thursday through Saturday, with the NBM indicating a 20-60% probability of highs for our population centers 95+ for those three days as well; bumping this to 100+ degrees, the Columbia Basin and foothills of the Blues have a 20-30% probability at these values on Friday and Saturday. HeatRisk values will also sit in a widespread moderate to major during this three day period, which will likely prompt highlights for this time. This high pressure will be interrupted by the aforementioned offshore low, however, as models indicate the movement of this system inland on Saturday and into our region by Sunday. This is where ensemble divergence begins though, with solutions ranging from a weaker low remaining south of us and absorbing into the overall flow, while other solutions show a stronger low moving directly over the region. This then determines the outcome of the Desert Southwest high, as a weaker low indicates the ridge resumes a firm control over us, whereas the stronger low would weaken this ridge and allow a more zonal flow to take over to end the forecast period. Because of the divergence of these models, there is low confidence (30%) in the forecast beyond Saturday afternoon. Likely, we should see temperatures lessen if only briefly on Sunday, with a chance at a shower or storm over the weekend but with such low confidence and limited coverage to begin with, have kept the NBM's output of zero precipitation during this time until model agreement increases. Monday remains a wild card for temperatures, as a stronger ridge would bring notable warmth right back to us, with zonal flow more moderated but likely still several degrees above normal. Nevertheless, it's gonna be a hot end to the week much like how it's starting, keeping a late summer push firmly in the forecast. Goatley/87 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... PDT 91 60 83 54 / 20 60 10 0 ALW 95 62 86 58 / 20 50 10 0 PSC 95 64 88 58 / 20 30 10 0 YKM 93 58 88 51 / 20 10 0 0 HRI 95 62 87 56 / 20 40 10 0 ELN 93 59 85 53 / 20 10 0 0 RDM 87 48 83 48 / 20 30 0 0 LGD 92 56 82 51 / 40 80 20 0 GCD 92 53 83 51 / 30 50 10 0 DLS 82 61 83 58 / 20 10 0 0 && .PDT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. WA...None. && SHORT TERM...85 LONG TERM....87 AVIATION...90
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
DLS ASOS reported a wind gust of 61 mph at around 5 pm on the 2nd.
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