Guidance showed an upper level low opening into a trough and passing over northern California into western Nevada during the evening hours the 2nd. The attendant cold front produced gusty southwest winds throughout the day into the evening.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS REV wrote it up.
Guidance showed an upper level low opening into a trough and passing over northern California into western Nevada during the evening hours the 2nd. The attendant cold front produced gusty southwest winds throughout the day into the evening. Ridgetop wind gusts were projected to increased to around 50-70 mph by the morning of the 2nd, and last through the day and overnight. These winds allowed for critical fire weather conditions, choppy waters on area lakes, aviation impacts, and blowing dust near desert areas. Higher resolution model guidance also suggested the potential for showers and thunderstorms along and east of US-95 during the afternoon hours of the 2nd.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Reno, NV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 2, 12:30 PM PST, 4 hours 45 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
130 PM PDT Mon Sep 2 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
* Gusty winds produce critical fire weather conditions and
impacts to aviation and recreation today.
* Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early
evening across portions of west-central Nevada.
* Near to above average temperatures prevail this week with
increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms by late week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Nocturnal elevated convection produced a few lightning strikes
and cloud flashes in the Surprise Valley and far northwest NV
early this morning. The next round of shower/t-storm activity will
fire up this afternoon as low pressure in southwest Oregon ejects
to the northeast. High resolution guidance/recent radar shows
initial cells forming between 1-2 PM across west central NV from
US-95 eastward and also northern Pershing County, then shifting
farther east of US-95 as the afternoon progresses, before
diminishing by 8-9 PM.
These cells will move quickly to the northeast, producing little
to no rainfall but potential for isolated dry lightning strikes
and enhanced winds. Even without convection, wind gusts will
already be in the 30-40 mph range across much of the region
through early evening so even a modest cell with virga below the
cloud base could generate outflow gusts of 50+ mph. Impacts for
lake recreation will continue into early this evening, along with
periods of poor visibility and gusty cross winds for air and
vehicle traffic departing Black Rock City. For more details and
impacts from today's departing storm system, see the Fire
Weather section below.
From Tuesday-Thursday, we'll see a return to benign weather with
dry conditions and lighter winds as high pressure rebuilds across
the Great Basin. Temperatures on Tuesday will remain near early
September averages with highs near 90 in lower elevations and
upper 70s-lower 80s for Sierra communities, then warm up to about
4-8 degrees above average by Thursday.
The next weather system to bring impacts to the eastern Sierra and
western NV is likely to be a closed upper low approaching the
northern CA coast by Friday, then tracking northeast across Oregon
or northwest NV on Saturday. Moisture and instability associated
with this low is projected to extend farther south compared to
today's system, with much of the region seeing a 20-40% chance for
PM showers/t-storms Friday-Saturday, with 10-20% chance for
isolated elevated convection Friday night/Saturday AM. The
eventual storm track/timing currently includes some varied
scenarios, so these broader areas of t-storm chances will become
more refined as we get closer to late week when shorter term high
resolution guidance becomes available.
For late weekend into early next week, a few showers may linger
on Sunday, otherwise drier conditions will prevail with highs
easing back to near seasonal averages. Signals point toward
another trough enhancing southwest flow over the Sierra by next
Monday, which would lead to increased afternoon breezes. MJD
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of turbulence/mountain wave conditions and periods of
directional shear will continue into this evening with S-SW
gusts of 25-35 kt at the main terminals and SW ridge top gusts up
to 50 kt, with decreasing winds after 03Z. Blowing dust will
significantly reduce visibility to less than 1/2SM at times near
desert playas including the temporary Black Rock airport.
Isolated showers/t-storms remain possible in west central NV
between 21Z-03Z today with a few cells coming within 10SM of
KLOL/KNFL through 23Z, potentially producing enhanced wind gusts
of 40+ kt and a few lightning strikes/flashes.
VFR conditions with lighter winds are expected region-wide from
Tuesday-Thursday. MJD
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Red Flag Warnings remain in effect until 8 PM this evening.
Observations across the region show widespread wind gusts
between 30-40 mph, with some wind prone locations seeing gusts
well over 40 mph. Dry conditions are also in place, with RH in the
10-15% range across northeast California and western Nevada, and
flirting with critical levels in the Tahoe Basin as of writing.
Any new ignitions today will be strongly wind-driven with good
smoke ventilation. Be extra mindful while recreating outdoors this
Labor Day and avoid activities that could cause a spark!
Outside of winds, showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected
this afternoon mainly for areas east of US-95. Some cloud to
ground lightning strikes were observed overnight even with
limited instability, so dry lightning remains the largest concern
over the Basin & Range.
Winds drop off significantly overnight tonight as the low exits
the region. Northeasterly winds will prevail on Tuesday behind
this system, remaining relatively light with more typical
afternoon breezes. This drier flow regime will result in very low
RH across the region, with poor overnight recoveries expected
through at least mid-week. Whitlam
&&
.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ420-421-423-458.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ002-003.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening NVZ001-004.
CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ270>272-278.
Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening CAZ071>073.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Mesonet station (RGX-Virginia Peak) located 8.0 mi SW of Nixon, NV, reported a peak wind gust of 64 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Nevada in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Nevada, September 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1211743.