Flash Flooding in New Mexico, September 2, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
522 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 111 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 2024

While relatively dry air is in place over much of northern and
central New Mexico, an upper level disturbance is moving over west
Texas and southeastern New Mexico, bringing more moisture and
associated showers and thunderstorms to that area. Temperatures
today will be slightly below normal with southeastern areas of New
Mexico staying about 10 degrees below early September averages due
to more clouds and ongoing showers and storms. The showers and
storms over the southeastern part of the state will fade away
into Tuesday with mostly dry conditions continuing areawide into
Wednesday. Another upper level disturbance and associated cool
front will drop into northeastern New Mexico late Wednesday night
and Thursday, bringing a chance for showers and storms that will
eventually spread across the central mountain chain and into the
Rio Grande valley late in the day. This front will leave moisture
that will keep a chance for isolated to scattered showers and
storms through Friday and the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 111 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 2024

An area of disturbed weather highlighted by a weak upper low and
abundant monsoonal moisture is pooled up across far western TX and
into southeastern NM. While much of northern and central NM will
remain dry and cooler beneath a weakening 591dm H5 high over CO,
southeastern NM will see rounds of light to moderate shower activity
today. The abundant cloud cover and shower activity will act to
limit daytime heating, resulting in a forecast high of 80F at
Roswell. Most areas will be a few degrees below their normal high
for early September, with east-central and south-central NM falling
5F to 12F below normal. Abundant moisture remains locked up in
southeastern NM tonight with clearing skies. This will allow for a
greater chance for fog development heading into Tuesday morning,
favoring Chaves, De Baca, Curry, Roosevelt, Lincoln and Torrance
Counties. Drier conditions are forecast Tuesday as the monsoonal
moisture shifts eastward deeper into TX. High temperatures trend up
a few degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 111 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 2024

Dry air is slated to remain over northern and central NM into
Wednesday as the upper high consolidates and strengthens over
southern CA, southern NV and AZ. Low theta-e values are still
progged, likely too low for convective initiation outside of a few
stray cells over the northern and south central mountains.
Temperatures are also forecast to rise 3 to 6 degrees amid the
higher geopotential heights on Wednesday. The pattern will evolve
going into Wednesday night though, as the remnants of an eastern
Pacific low drop past the Rockies and into the central plains as
an open shortwave trough. This will send a transient wave of
upward forcing into northeastern NM by Thursday.

A moist backdoor front would also accompany the aforementioned
shortwave trough that would produce some moisture/surface
convergence and upslope flow along the eastern faces of the
central mountain chain, all combining with the forcing aloft to
produce increased convection. This backdoor front could even spill
beyond (west) of the Rio Grande by Thursday afternoon and lead to
a westward expansion of storms into Thursday evening.

Surface winds would slacken, but not veer much going into Friday,
and the slight uptick in low layer dewpoints will boost PWATs back
towards 0.75 inch (give or take 0.10). This will enable a modest
crop of convection to initiate along the central mountain chain
and Continental Divide and then fill in to surrounding valleys.
The high would likely reach its peak strength on Friday, west
southwest of the Four Corners (594-595 decameters). The high will
then weaken a few decameters closer to the Four Corners into the
weekend with similar moisture profiles remaining. This will keep
isolated to scattered storms initiating each day on the western
and central mountains with seasonable temperatures persisting.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 507 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 2024

An area of showers with a few rumbles of thunder is advancing
northwestward into southeastern NM from far west TX, already
reaching KROW this morning. This will continue well into the
afternoon before tapering off this evening. Low clouds and the
potential for IFR/MVFR ceilings will enter this same area tonight.
Fog will be possible along the east slopes of the Sacramento Mts
near KSRR northward into the Estancia Valley by K0E0 later Tuesday
morning. VFR with prevailing easterlies and mostly clear skies
forecast elsewhere across northern and central NM.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 111 AM MDT Mon Sep 2 2024

Critical fire weather is not forecast within the next seven days.
Prevailing easterly winds pick-up again today with light shower
activity entering portions of the east-central plains from
southeastern NM. High pressure will build west and northwest of NM
mid-to-late week allowing for a warming trend. A backdoor front
advancing through eastern NM Wednesday night into Thursday morning
will bring replenished moisture there and an increase in afternoon
storm activity mainly along and east of the central mountain chain
to end the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  85  57  87  58 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  82  43  85  47 /  10  10   5   0
Cuba............................  78  47  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  83  47  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  77  51  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  80  46  85  49 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  78  47  82  49 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  76  50  80  54 /   5   0   0   0
Datil...........................  75  46  79  49 /   5   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  84  47  87  52 /   5   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  88  55  90  59 /  10   5   0   0
Chama...........................  75  43  77  46 /  10   5  10   0
Los Alamos......................  77  52  81  57 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  75  47  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  78  45  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  67  40  70  38 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  70  34  74  30 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  80  44  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  73  42  77  47 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  84  51  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  77  51  80  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  80  50  84  53 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  83  60  86  60 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  85  55  87  62 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  87  51  89  55 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  86  57  88  60 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  86  49  87  57 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  88  53  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  86  48  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  88  55  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  86  50  87  56 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  83  56  86  57 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  86  56  89  60 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  87  56  90  60 /   5   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  76  47  79  52 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  79  50  82  55 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  78  44  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  79  43  83  48 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  73  45  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  76  44  80  51 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  75  45  80  51 /   5   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  78  51  82  57 /  20  10   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  66  46  72  47 /  30  20   5   5
Capulin.........................  74  46  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  79  45  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  79  45  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  75  45  79  49 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  79  53  81  55 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  77  49  78  53 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  82  53  85  58 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  78  50  80  57 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  80  51  83  56 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  80  55  82  58 /  10   5  10   0
Portales........................  81  55  82  57 /  20   5  10   0
Fort Sumner.....................  81  52  82  59 /  10   5   5   5
Roswell.........................  80  60  82  62 /  40  10  10   5
Picacho.........................  75  51  78  57 /  50  10  10   5
Elk.............................  73  48  77  53 /  70  20  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....52
AVIATION...24