High moisture and a lingering frontal zone across the area created heavy rainfall rates in diurnally enhanced sea breeze showers and storms. Warm temperatures aloft and slow storm motion aided heavy rainfall amounts.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JAX wrote it up.
High moisture and a lingering frontal zone across the area created heavy rainfall rates in diurnally enhanced sea breeze showers and storms. Warm temperatures aloft and slow storm motion aided heavy rainfall amounts.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jacksonville, FL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 2, 12:52 PM EST, 3 hours 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
152 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024
...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.NEAR TERM...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024
For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit:
https://www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf
Weak low pressure just off the SE GA coastline with trough axis
extending S-SW from this feature across NE FL will continue to be
the focus for scattered to numerous showers and embedded storms
this afternoon and evening, while further to the NW across inland
SE GA and the Suwannee Valley where there is a drier airmass
aloft, still expecting less convection with isolated to widely
scattered storms possible through the evening hours. Slow and
erratic storm motion around 10 mph or less will continue to
enhance heavy rainfall and brief/localized flooding from the more
intense storms, mainly in urban areas along the I-95, US-17 and
US-301 corridors this afternoon and evening. Most the convection
this evening over inland areas will start to fade around sunset
and end around midnight with scattered showers and storms
lingering over the Atlantic Coastal Waters through the overnight
hours and some of this activity may bleed close to the Atlantic
beaches at times through the night, especially along the SE GA
coastal areas as the low level flow becomes more onshore there.
Min temps near seasonable levels in the lower/middle 70s inland
and upper 70s/near 80 along the Atlantic Coast/St. Johns River
Basin. Some patchy fog possible over inland areas towards sunrise
Tuesday morning, but significant dense fog formation is not
expected at this time.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024
Diurnal showers and storms will become more numerous on Tuesday
and Wednesday with the most widespread convection developing south
of the stalled frontal boundary over northeast Florida. High
temperatures through midweek will experience a slight cooling
trend with max temps dropping down into the mid to lower 80s over
southeast Georgia and portions of northeast Florida near and north
of the I-10 corridor and in the lower 90s over north central
Florida. Overnight low temperatures during this period will be in
the lower to mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024
Prevailing flow will shift about to become more out of the
southwest as the frontal boundary recedes to the north during the
latter part of the week with more widespread convection developing
area-wide by Friday. An upper level trough will cross over the
region over the weekend as the frontal boundary presses southward
into Georgia resulting in stronger storms capable of producing
significant rainfall amounts building ahead of the approaching
frontal boundary. High temperatures for the end of the week and
into the weekend will be in the lower to upper 80s with overnight
low temperatures dropping down into the lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 126 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024
Ongoing shower/isolated TSRA activity near the SSI/SGJ sites along
the Atlantic Coast and have kept 18-22Z TEMPO groups going for
MVFR conds, while diurnal heating will continue at the other TAF
sites and expect some TSRA activity at JAX/CRG/VQQ/GNV in the
20-24Z time frame with TEMPO groups, have ended VCTS at all TAF
sites around sunset in the 00-02Z time frame with lingering VFR
cloud decks along the coast, while enough diurnal cooling at the
inland TAF sites of GNV/VQQ and expect MVFR conds with TEMPO IFR
CIGS possible towards sunrise. Meanwhile a NE wind surge and lower
cloud decks is expected to push down the SE GA coast late tonight
and push into SSI with lower MVFR conds in the 09-12Z time frame
and push into the NE FL TAF sites after sunrise with widespread
MVFR CIGS in the 12Z-18Z time frame on Tuesday and have trended
this way in the latest TAF package.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 145 PM EDT Mon Sep 2 2024
A coastal trough will lift northward over the local waters today
as a surface front lingers across Georgia. High pressure
strengthens north of the region Tuesday into Wednesday, as onshore
flow strengthens and a coastal trough amplifies over the local
Atlantic waters with building combined seas. Thursday an area of
low pressure forms across the Gulf coast region, then tracks
northward across the region Friday into Saturday.
Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for all area beaches through Tuesday
with a potential for High Risk along SE GA beaches on Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG 73 86 70 85 / 20 30 20 30
SSI 77 86 76 85 / 40 50 50 60
JAX 75 88 76 86 / 20 70 50 80
SGJ 75 89 77 89 / 30 70 60 80
GNV 73 91 73 89 / 30 80 30 80
OCF 73 92 75 92 / 30 80 30 90
&&
.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for
AMZ450-470.
&&The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A mesonet site near Faver Dykes | State Park reported 2.53 inches from 5 pm to | around 7 pm.
A mesonet site indicated heavy rainfall of 2.58 inches starting just after 5 pm | until around 725 pm about 3 miles west of Marineland.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Florida in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Florida, September 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1213384, 1213385.