Severe to extreme drought conditions impacted Cooke and Grayson counties through the middle of the month, but conditions improved after beneficial rainfall was received.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Severe to extreme drought conditions impacted Cooke and Grayson counties through the middle of the month, but conditions improved after beneficial rainfall was received.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 6:30 PM CST, 5 hours 30 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 730 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Halloween trick-or-treating will be rain-free with temperatures in the 50s and 60s and mostly clear skies. - An unsettled pattern will bring additional on and off rainfall through the weekend and into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight through Saturday Morning/ The front that brought us our earlier rain chances is now south of the region. With post-frontal drier and cooler air in place, any trick-or-treating plans should remain rain-free this evening across North and Central Texas. Temperatures will decrease into the mid 50s and 60s, making for a cool night to walk around outside for a while. Any further southward movement of the frontal boundary will cease later tonight, keeping it stalled across South/Central Texas. Overnight low temperatures will bottom out in the upper 40s to mid 60s. Over Friday morning, the front will be shunted back northward as a warm front as mid-level ridging in the eastern Gulf builds northward. This will bring a surge of increased moisture and low cloud cover across the region tomorrow morning. Increased isentropic ascent as the front shifts north will work in tandem with the moisture to promote isolated to scattered showers tomorrow morning and afternoon, mainly for areas south of I-20. Increased cloud cover is expected to persist across the region tomorrow afternoon, which will temper daytime heating and keep afternoon highs in the mid 70s to low 80s. There is bust potential within Friday's afternoon temperatures, which is dependent on the amount of cloud cover observed across the region. We'll need to keep watch on the clouds tomorrow as any denser cloud cover will keep temperatures lower than currently forecast. Additional moisture advection is progged to occur tomorrow night into Saturday morning as the aforementioned front reaches the Red River. PWATS > 1.5" will spread northward into North Texas and will increase rain/storm coverage overnight. Best chances remain across areas near/west of I-35. Even in the face of increasing rain chances, overnight lows to kick off the weekend will be a bit warmer than previous days thanks to the return of southerly winds and dense cloud cover. Saturday low temperatures will only bottom out in the 60s region-wide. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 423 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024/ /Friday Night Onward/ November will be starting off quite differently than what North and Central Texas experienced for the bulk of October, with multiple rounds of showers and storms expected this weekend into early next week. Pockets of heavy rain are expected with some of this activity, with average rain amounts from 1 to 3 inches. While the beneficial rain is more than welcome, locations near the Red River have a low chance (10%) of accumulating 5-6 inches through Tuesday which would result in a greater flood threat. A much more notable push of moisture will be advecting northward Friday night which will mark the return of more significant rain chances heading into Saturday. A deepening upper level trough will dig southeastward from the PacNW while high pressure remains situated across the Southeast, and as this occurs, the upper level flow overhead TX will become increasingly amplified. By Saturday morning, precipitable water values will likely be approaching the climatological max (~1.7") for DFW, based on SPC's Sounding Climatology. The above normal moisture will interact with the diffluent upper level flow aloft with embedded impulses to support scattered showers and a few storms Saturday. This time period is now getting into the range of some of the higher res guidance, which is favoring areas across the north and west for the heaviest precipitation Saturday, although there are some discrepancies in where the focus of these showers and storms will be greatest. It won't be a washout for everyone, with precipitation amounts through Saturday likely to be highest along the Red River/north of I-20, as well as the Big Country. Generally anywhere from around 0.5"-1.0" is most likely for North TX, with locally higher amounts where any convection is able to develop and produce higher rain rates. Sunday will be a drier day with most of the precipitation focused in the Texoma region, with a north to south gradient in rain amounts. Areas near/south of HWY 84 in Central Texas are the least likely to pick up any wetting rain, with amounts likely to be less than a tenth of an inch in these locations. However, closer to the Red River, an additional focus for thunderstorm development will set up Sunday, in part thanks to being placed underneath a favorable location of the upper level jet streak and allowing for ample ascent to occur. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop to the west along a moisture gradient and will spread northeast later in the day. There is a severe threat primarily for large hail and damaging winds with this activity as decent instability should be in place with more than enough bulk layer shear to support rotating storms, although the extent of which the severe threat will materialize is still uncertain. Although dry antecedent conditions are in place, there is a low flood threat for our northern and western counties primarily with the activity early next week. This will largely be dependent on the evolution of Saturday's convection and the extent of the storm coverage in this area, so the flood threat is also more uncertain at this time frame. Some model guidance is skewing the mean rainfall amounts for Saturday's storms, and if these higher amounts (2+" through Saturday) were to occur, that would result in a higher flood threat for the additional storms late Sunday and into Monday. As the upper level trough finally ejects into the Plains, the sharpening surface boundary will focus showers and storms through the rest of the forecast area and gradually exiting into East/Southeast TX by Monday evening. A severe threat also exists with the activity Monday for the entire forecast area, although there is less confidence in how unstable the environment will be to support severe thunderstorms. The real push of cold air will move in Monday night into Tuesday morning. As a result, Tuesday should be about 10 to 15 degrees cooler, with highs in the mid to upper 60s. Low rain chances are advertised mainly across Central TX into the midweek in advance of another potential system digging into the Plains late next week. Gordon && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ Northerly winds and VFR will persist through tomorrow morning at all TAF sites. Our earlier cold front will shift back northward tomorrow morning, bringing a deck of stratus and E-SE winds to the region. The stratus deck is expected to impact ACT, and potentially eastern D10. ACT will observe MVFR cigs close to 11Z tomorrow morning. Within D10, DAL/DFW/GKY have the highest chance to be impacted by MVFR cigs just after 15Z, and have included a TEMPO for bkn025 between 16-20Z. Any cigs will eventually lift back to low VFR tomorrow afternoon, with E-ESE winds less than 10 kts persisting. There remains low potential for isolated-scattered showers and storms tomorrow morning and afternoon, but coverage is spotty enough and focused more towards the west to have low confidence of any terminal impacts at this time. Therefore, have not included any mention of precipitation with this issuance. Prater && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 59 75 68 76 70 / 10 10 70 90 70 Waco 61 80 68 81 68 / 20 40 70 80 50 Paris 54 74 62 74 65 / 10 10 50 80 60 Denton 52 77 64 76 66 / 5 10 70 90 70 McKinney 54 76 64 76 66 / 10 10 60 80 60 Dallas 58 78 67 78 68 / 10 20 70 90 60 Terrell 57 77 66 77 67 / 10 20 60 80 50 Corsicana 62 79 69 80 69 / 20 30 60 80 40 Temple 62 81 67 82 68 / 20 40 50 60 40 Mineral Wells 52 78 64 78 66 / 10 10 70 90 80 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 619 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011145- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 619 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday. A period of wet weather is expected late Friday through early Tuesday. Some rainfall will be heavy and could result in a low potential for flooding, especially north of I-20 into the Texoma region Saturday through Monday. The severe threat Sunday and Monday is low at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe to extreme drought conditions impacted portions of the county through the middle of the month.
Severe to extreme drought conditions impacted the county through the middle of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, November 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1225266, 1225267.