Widespread rainfall over the past week led to large areas of drought improvement across central Iowa.
Every event with a place to put it; 21 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS DMX wrote it up.
Widespread rainfall over the past week led to large areas of drought improvement across central Iowa.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Des Moines, IA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 10:40 PM CST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Des Moines IA 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet and much cooler to finish out the work week. - Active weather pattern with warmer temperatures this weekend into early next week. - Quiet with seasonable temperatures by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Based on satellite trends, clouds will be slow to clear across the east and northeast parts of the area. However, clear skies should be seen across the entire area by mid-evening. Once skies clear and winds diminish, temperatures should plummet with the favored cold areas likely dropping below freezing. Given the wet ground, there may or may not be some patchy fog north of highway 30. Although return flow develops late tonight and continues through Friday, the cold core aloft will keep temperatures suppressed through the day. Some locations near the IA/MN border may struggle to reach 50 degrees Friday. Return flow aloft develops in earnest Friday night with overnight lows only dropping around 15 degrees from the daytime highs. The active weather returns for the weekend and into early next week as energy ejects from the deep trof over the southwest CONUS. As is the usual case, the energy is ejecting out in pieces. Saturday morning has the potential for being dry with scattered showers arriving in the afternoon from southwest to northeast with the first piece of energy. More widespread rain is expected Saturday night and Sunday when the second piece of energy arrives. The main energy with an associated surface low looks to move through Iowa centered around Monday (plus/minus 12 hours). The moisture transport is considerable with a tropical connection from the western Gulf. The strongest vapor transport is progged to run from Missouri through far southeast Iowa into IL/WI. However, there are lobes of better moisture transport that will move through central Iowa Monday and Monday night. Thus several more rounds of rain are expected for the area, especially from late Saturday night through Monday night. The current NBM pops of 75%+ Saturday night through Monday night look reasonable given the amount of moisture transport moving north through the Midwest. Interestingly, WPC has the southeast two thirds of central Iowa outlooked for a marginal risk of excessive rainfall Sunday through Monday night. Given the current drought conditions across the area, a good chunk of this rain should soak into the ground if rainfall rates are not excessive. It will however, eventually lead to rising stream levels across the area. Refer to the hydrology discussion for further details. Quiet weather will then return for mid-week as high pressure builds into the Midwest behind the departing system. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1140 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Little change from previous forecast. Light/var winds to 15 to 16z, then becoming south under 12kts aft 17z. Winds lessen aft 23z with VFR conditions expected. Will continue small window of 5SM at FOD from 11 to 13z, but still some uncertainty regarding coverage. /rev && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Main concerns are potential hydrologic implications of the wet pattern over the next week. Our probabilistic tools indicate that isolated minor flooding is possible on area rivers. This possibility is quite the departure from conditions we have been seeing, Hydrologic conditions have begun changing with Wednesday's rainfall. Widespread amounts of at least 1-2 inches fell across much of our HSA with a stripe of 2-4 inches falling about 30-40 miles either side of a line through Mount Ayr, Knoxville and Belle Plaine. Relatively minor waterway responses (if any at all) occurred in general since soil moisture levels were running much below normal for this time of year, however that rainfall has significantly increased upper-level soil moisture percentiles across much of our HSA. Whereas NASA SPoRT soil moisture percentiles were below the 2nd to 5th percentile values for our HSA prior to the rainfall (indicating much below normal to record low soil moisture values for this time of year), today they are generally at least at the 30th percentile or higher, with much of our HSA now seeing values at the 70th percentile or higher (indicating above to much above normal for this time of year). Our National Water Model (NWM) simulated soil moisture saturation confirms this analysis. NWM soil saturation is now 70% or higher across much of the southeastern half of our HSA where the heaviest rain fell. Looking ahead, additional rainfall is in the forecast into next week. With the now elevated soil moisture values across much of our HSA, if the additional rainfall is moderate to heavy then we will likely see more runoff than we saw on Wednesday. Both the NWM GFS- and NBM-forced 10-day max high flow forecasts suggest the possibility of isolated minor stream flooding mainly across the southern half of the CWA. This signal has been moving between southeast and southern IA however due to differing model run QPF placement. Although the location is changing the signal of possible isolated minor flooding remains. Thus hydrologic conditions and QPF trends will have be monitored into next week. && .DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && DISCUSSION...Previous Fcter AVIATION...REV HYDROLOGY...Zogg
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Des Moines IA 502 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 IAZ004>007-015>017-023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075- 081>086-092>097-012215- Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo- Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun- Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene- Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper- Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Adams-Union- Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne- Appanoose-Davis- 502 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Shower and thunderstorm chances return to the forecast later Saturday into early next week. The severe weather potential remains low through the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed through the weekend. Dodson
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
21 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Cerro Gordo County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Hancock County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Humboldt County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Webster County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Wright County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Franklin County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Butler County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Bremer County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Black Hawk County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Grundy County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Hardin County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Hamilton County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Marshall County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Tama County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Poweshiek County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Carroll County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Audubon County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Cass County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Union County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Adair County.
Widespread rainfall of 1 to 2 inches over the past week helped to end the Severe Drought conditions across Guthrie County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Iowa in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Iowa, November 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1216674, 1216675, 1216676, 1216677, 1216678, 1216679, 1216680, 1216681, 1216682, 1216683, 1216684, 1216685, 1216686, 1216687, 1216688, 1216689, 1216690, 1216691, 1216692, 1216693, 1216694.