Drought in Nebraska, November 1 to 30, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service North Platte NE
1155 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable temps but breezy tomorrow, raising fire weather
concerns for western Nebraska.

- Storm system brings showers and thunderstorms this weekend into
early next week. Some storms may actually be strong or severe Sunday.

- Additional precip chances linger into midweek as temps cool. Will
need to monitor for potential wintry trends.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

A weak progressive upper ridge centered over the Great Plains is
bounded by two upper lows, one off the British Columbia coast and
the other over the Great Lakes. This pattern results in quasi-zonal
flow aloft over Nebraska, while the main northern stream is split.
At the surface, a broad high centered near Kansas City provided
generally light southerly return flow over western Neb, fair skies,
and seasonable highs in the mid 50s. A pair of weaker lows line up
along the Front Range and stretch a trough near the edge of the
panhandle.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

This evening and tonight... A mid-level shortwave ejects onto the
Dakota plains, while the surface low accompanies it with the trough.
A warm front also begins to develop over the Sandhills, showcased in
guidance by strengthening isentropic upglide and modest moisture
advection. Higher level moisture is already present, as noted by
mountain cirrus and wave clouds streaming into southwest Neb.
Increased the cloud cover for the Sandhills overnight, but the bulk
of the forcing appears to lie just north of the state line, limiting
precip potential here. Checked for fog potential given the moisture
advection and recent precip, but guidance seems to not be convinced
of any consistent or widespread coverage. Meanwhile, H85 flow
transitions from northwest to southwest and strengthens, leading to
a notable warm air advection scheme. Temp rises over 24 hours
approach +8C in the Sandhills. Blended in some milder solutions for
min temps, with values generally in the lower to mid 30s for north
central Neb. A period of clearing skies and somewhat lighter surface
winds over western Neb should allow temps to fall into the upper 20s
there.

Tomorrow... Flow aloft begins to transition to southwesterly as the
Western US trough digs along the California coast. Toward the
surface, the low drifts east along the SD/NE border and drags the
trough across the Sandhills. In its wake, low level flow becomes
westerly and picks up the downslope component. Mostly clear skies
will complement a punch of low level dry air, and dew points may dip
back into the teens across parts of the panhandle and western
Sandhills. Wind gusts may also exceed 25 mph, which increases the
fire weather threat. At this time, the period of strongest winds
(midday) does not appear to correlate with the lowest humidity (late
afternoon), so have not issued any fire weather headlines. With that
said, conditions will still be favorable for fire spread at times,
and cannot completely rule out limited or brief critical conditions.
The warm air advection weakens behind the trough, but H85 temps are
still greater than today. The NBM envelope is very narrow and seems
to line up with numerical guidance well, so used the NBM50 for max
temp forecast. Highs range from upper 50s along the Pine Ridge to
lower 60s basically elsewhere. Fair skies and light winds at night
will encourage efficient boundary layer decoupling, so blended in
some cooler guidance for min temps. Forecast lows range from mid 20s
panhandle to lower 30s central.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 347 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

The weather pattern turns quite active this weekend with greater
dynamics both aloft and in the low levels. The upper trough
continues to dig deeper, reaching the Four Corners by late Sunday. A
rather robust surface low also spins up along the lee of the Rockies
and lifts a warm front across the central Plains. Bursts of mid-
level fgen will also help with forcing and the development of precip
later Saturday. Perhaps the most widespread and/or heaviest precip
will come Sunday in the vicinity of the front and greatest H5-7
lift. Agree with the SPC assessment of increased severe risk for the
eastern portions of the CWA. Modest instability, especially given
the season, includes around 500j/kg MUCAPE and mid-level lapse rates
near 7.5 C/km. Deep layer shear is very strong, on the order of 50+
kts, and the CWA is near the nose of a 100kt H3 jet streak.
Confidence is lower regarding supercell potential as a lot of the
wind profile appears quasi-unidirectional, but fast storm motion
increases the risk of damaging wind gusts. The depth of the trough
and cool air also ups the hail risk. The primary cold front swings
through the area early Monday, and a followup cool front late
Tuesday will keep precip chances hanging around into midweek. Have
not included any wintry mention in the forecast yet, but thermal
profiles are headed that way. Will need to monitor any cooling
trends in later guidance, especially for the panhandle. Highs will
likely remain in the 40s to begin the workweek, while lows dip into
the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

VFR conditions prevail across western and north central Nebraska
through the period. A brief period of southeasterly LLWS up to
40 kts will develop ahead of a surface trough, impacting both
terminal sites. Surface winds will increase out of the
west/northwest around 12Z Friday across the Sandhills into north
central Nebraska (VTN) with peak gusts up to 30 kts possible.
Winds will shift towards the northwest for southern terminals
(LBF), though remaining at 10 kts or less. The gusty winds will
subside around sunset, becoming light and variable for all sites through
the remainder of the period.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Snively
SHORT TERM...Snively
LONG TERM...Snively
AVIATION...Viken

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service North Platte NE
303 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-012015-
Sheridan-Eastern Cherry-Keya Paha-Boyd-Brown-Rock-Holt-Garden-Grant-
Hooker-Thomas-Blaine-Loup-Garfield-Wheeler-Arthur-McPherson-Logan-
Custer-Deuel-Keith-Perkins-Lincoln-Chase-Hayes-Frontier-
Western Cherry-
303 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 /203 PM MDT Thu Oct 31 2024/

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central Nebraska.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Near critical fire weather conditions are expected Friday afternoon
across the western Sandhills and portions of the Panhandle.

There is a chance that a few thunderstorms could become severe on
Sunday. The main area of concern would be near and east of a line
from Broken Bow to Curtis.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Taylor