High Wind in Texas, January 11, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
531 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Water vapor imagery early this afternoon depicts a compact shortwave
trough axis pivoting eastward over New Mexico at 19z with an
associated area of midlevel cloudiness gradually extending eastward
towards the TX/NM state line. Ahead of this trough, a deepening lee
surface cyclone combined with a 40-50 kt 700mb jet max has resulted
in sustained WSW surface winds near 30 kt over portions of the South
Plains which will continue through early this evening, with winds
diminishing slightly after sunset as mixing fades. This break in the
strong winds will be short-lived as a strong cold front punches
southward through the TX Panhandle and into our area by this
evening. The frontal passage still looks favorably timed to line up
with a period of broad-scale lift associated with the passage of the
upper trough axis, with isolated to scattered rain showers expected
to develop this evening, likely transitioning to a broken line of
snow showers along the front tonight. Precipitation intensity still
remains in question with low level moisture appearing relatively
marginal, with the window for precip also appearing quite brief due
to the short residence time of the upper level shortwave. Have opted
to keep PoPs fairly broad-brushed due to uncertainties with the
timing and coverage of rain/snow showers, though at this time it
appears snow accumulations will be limited to a dusting or less and
will be concentrated across the SW Panhandle and NW South Plains.

Precipitation chances quickly end late tonight as the upper wave
exits eastward, with the focus then shifting to a return of strong
winds tonight through early Friday morning. Post-frontal surface
pressure rises on the order of 2-3 mb/hr will support very strong
northwesterly gradient winds overnight with sustained speeds of 25-35
mph across much of the region with gusts to 55 mph possible. Have
therefore issued a Wind Advisory for areas off the Caprock and
southern portions of the South Plains from 10 PM until 6 AM Friday.
With temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s by sunrise Friday,
wind chill values are expected to fall into the single digits with
below-zero wind chill values possible across the SW TX Panhandle
during the early morning hours. Winds will diminish slightly after
sunrise, but will still remain breezy Friday as a secondary surface
trough develops over the region. Otherwise, dry and sunny conditions
will return Friday with below-normal high temperatures area-wide.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

Only a few changes were necessary in the extended realm as we expect
a faster arctic FROPA than is advertised by most of the mesoscale
and global models for Saturday. Such scenarios are not uncommon as
coarser models tend to underperforms with these shallow, dense air
masses. As it currently stands, Friday night should see the cold
front charging south across the northern TX Panhandle before slicing
into our far northeastern counties by daybreak. This is generally
three to six hours faster than most of the mesoscale and global
models, yet is on par with the HREF mean. Things get tricky by late
morning and the afternoon as the front will be encountering
stronger/deeper boundary layer mixing which often serves to slow its
progress. Guidance is in generally good agreement with this midday
slowing of the front which introduces considerable uncertainty in
high temps, particularly across our far W-SW zones where breezy
downslope winds could push highs to near 60. Opted to nudge these
values lower after collaboration with neighboring offices, although
if anything we may need to sharpen the maxT gradient in later
forecasts. By Saturday evening, the front should be cruising through
the Permian Basin and eastern NM ahead of very cold surface ridging
and blustery NE winds. Barring some low clouds along the frontal
inversion, mostly clear skies should prevail overnight complete with
wind chills falling into the 0 to -10 range as winds hold around 15
mph.

The upper pattern turns a little more interesting on Sunday as a
shortwave trough arrives in NW flow and delivers a plume of mid-
level Pacific moisture across the South Plains. Farther east,
isentropic ascent will benefit from a favorable fetch of gulf
moisture which could clip our far E-NE counties later in the day as
ascent peaks ahead of the trough. However, sizable moisture deficits
in the lowest 4-6k feet should keep us dry. One exception to this
would be if the upper trough can dig farther south and encourage
gulf moisture to advect farther west, but this is not supported by
the global ensemble means. A more vigorous shortwave trough arrives
in deeper northerly flow late on Monday and there are some
indications this wave may have more low-level moisture available
ahead of a reinforcing surge of arctic air. Confidence in precip
with this second impulse is too low at this time to include in the
grids, although the colder push of air is enough to lower highs by
Tuesday as a surface high pinches off in the area. This will likely
keep most/all of the region below freezing yet again until breezy
downslope winds by Wednesday restore much milder temps.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

An upper level disturbance and surface cold front is bringing a
challenging forecast. Strong west to northwest winds should
decrease a bit with sunset but likely remaining gusty ahead of a
cold front that will arrive mid to late evening with a shift to
the north and increasing speeds once again. The disturbance is
already resulting in fairly widespread virga showers with little
if any precipitation reaching the ground and the potential for
isolated wind gusts approaching 50 kts. Post-cold front enough
lift will be provided by the disturbance to potentially some
isolated to scattered snow showers that could affect KLBB and
KPVW. In general, trends support more favorable ceilings overnight
than previously expected with the exception being in and near any
snow showers. Confidence is low in the more pessimistic conditions
being widespread enough to keep a mention in the TAFs at this
time. Sunrise Friday will put the area behind the departing
disturbance and with surface high pressure moving quickly eastward
with its upper level support winds will back to west-northwest
while fast momentum air off the deck will mix to the surface with
gusty winds again expected Friday late morning through afternoon,
especially at KLBB and KPVW, although not quite as strong as those
of this afternoon.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Friday for
TXZ024>026-030>032-035>044.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ033>036-039>042.

&&

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....93
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
244 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

TXZ021>044-122045-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
244 PM CST Thu Jan 11 2024

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A Wind Advisory is in effect for portions of the South Plains until
6 PM. Blowing dust may reduce visibilities at times. Elevated fire
weather conditions will also continue across portions of the South
Plains and Rolling Plains through early this evening.

Light snow showers or a mix of rain and snow is expected this
evening through early Friday morning across most of the region.
Accumulations up to one half inch will be possible across the far
southwestern Texas Panhandle and northwestern South Plains with
little or no accumulation expected elsewhere. A flash freeze
resulting in slick road conditions will be possible in any areas
where precipitation falls this evening.

Strong northwest winds will continue through the overnight hours
behind a potent cold front. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 10 PM
until 6 AM for areas off the Caprock and for southern portions of
the South Plains. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts to 55
mph are expected. Wind chills near zero are possible early Friday
morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Single digit lows are expected late Late Saturday night into early
Sunday morning, late Sunday night into early morning Monday and once
again Monday night into early morning Tuesday. Winds along with the
cold temperatures will lead to dangerously low wind chill values of
 -5 to -10 late Saturday into early Sunday morning, -10 to -20
Sunday night into Monday morning, and then -10 to -15 again Monday
night into Tuesday morning.