A modified Arctic front moved into Western Washington. After producing some locally heavy snowfall on the Olympic Peninsula, it was followed by strong Fraser River outflow winds and several days of cold temperatures when a number of record low temperature records were set.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SEW wrote it up.
A modified Arctic front moved into Western Washington. After producing some locally heavy snowfall on the Olympic Peninsula, it was followed by strong Fraser River outflow winds and several days of cold temperatures when a number of record low temperature records were set. It also resulted in several cold weather related deaths in King County. As precipitation moved into the region at the end of the cold episode, heavy snow was reported across the North Interior and freezing rain/drizzle resulted in travel impacts around Puget Sound.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Seattle, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 10, 8:22 PM PST, 3 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
822 PM PST Wed Jan 10 2024
.UPDATE...No updates were made to the forecast this evening.
Watching the latest hi-res guidance come in suggests roughly the
same message regarding snow, in that as the system continues to
slide south, the favored areas for lowland snow continue to be
along the northern Olympic peninsula and generally from Olympia
south. Temperatures will be on the way down as well, and locations
that receive snow will be a function of the intensity and general
spatial development of showers that transition to snow. There is
the potential for some banding of showers in the afternoon
tomorrow along the King/Snohomish county line, but with Fraser
outflow picking up, the northerlies may win out. Stay tuned for
updates as the forecast is subject to changes as information comes
in. /Kristell
&&
.SYNOPSIS...Cool upper-trough overhead through Saturday. A
shortwave will enter on Thursday with another round of
precipitation. With a modified arctic front moving in along with
it, lowland snow could be possible for some but significant
accumulation is not expected and much uncertainty must be
expressed. Cold air mass remaining over the area through the
weekend before gradually warming into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...For tonight, scattered showers
are to remain as another shortwave rounds the base of persistent
troughing aloft. This disturbance will bring another shot of
mountain snow where a Winter Storm Warning is in effect for the
central and southern Cascades. Snow levels will be around
500-1,000 ft, possibly below 500 ft for the lowlands of western
Whatcom. Any precipitation that falls tonight into the early
morning hours on Thursday could fall as snow for the higher hills
and some lowland locations where snow levels will fall below 500
ft. However, no significant accumulation is expected. Overnight
lows are to fall into the low to mid 30s with upper 20s possible
for western Whatcom county.
The intrusion of modified arctic air will begin to take aim at the
region on Thursday. Stout surface high pressure (1040+ mb) over
interior BC is coinciding with lower pressure over western
Washington and will kick-start Fraser River Outflow as cold air
blasts into western Washington. The GFS & NAM Bellingham-Williams
Lake surface gradient table has values around -20 mb starting on
Thursday afternoon. Things may get a bit interesting around that
time as the modified arctic front edges through the area. If
there's any lingering moisture from the aforementioned shortwave
trough, rain showers could transition to lowland snow showers.
It's is hard to pinpoint exactly where these showers are going to
be, but any snowfall accumulation shouldn't be significant. But,
one spot of concern is definitely the northern Olympic Peninsula
where brisk northeasterly winds from the Fraser River can upslope
along the mountains there. Areas along HWY 101 along the northern
Olympic Peninsula such as Sequim, Port Angeles, and of course the
foothills could see a better chance for accumulating snow during
Thursday afternoon into the evening. Models notoriously under
forecast amounts during set ups like this, but these areas could
see anywhere from 0.5-3.0" inches with the highest totals for the
foothills. Again, uncertainty must be expressed in exact totals as
this is one of the more challenging forecast scenarios during
this pattern but the potential can be realized. But what is
certain is that we'll drop well below average as far as
temperatures go. By Thursday night, widespread 10s and 20s are in
the cards with single digits possible for western Whatcom and some
spots within the Cascade valleys including Concrete, Darrington,
etc. Factoring in wind chill, temperatures could feel as if
they're below zero for cities and towns in W Whatcom such as
Bellingham, Lynden, Blaine, etc.
As we go into the day on Friday, conditions should trend drier as
the very cold, dry continental air mass takes hold. High
temperatures will stay below freezing for most areas with highs
topping out into the 10s and 20s. Areas along the coast and the
southwest interior should edge into the low to mid 30s but even in
that case that's 10-15 degrees below average for spots such as
Olympia. Friday night into Saturday, a surface low will track
towards the area bringing the potential for widespread
precipitation. However, guidance has been trending towards keeping
this feature south of the CWA. Let's talk about that. Considering
ECMWF ensembles regarding surface low locations, these solutions
have been consistent on keeping the track of the feature towards
the Oregon Coast. Now analyzing the GFS ensemble surface low
locations, previous model runs was keeping its track further
north into Washington but now, the most recent model runs are
coming in line with the ECMWF's solution. If this pans out,
lowland snow potential across Washington will be hard to come by
as the moisture source looks to stay off and away. Of course, must
stay cognoscente of wrap around moisture entering the southern
most counties of our CWA such as Lewis. From a forecasting
standpoint, models coming into agreement makes a meteorologist's
job a bit easier but for the snow lovers regarding this particular
set up, chances of seeing decent accumulation is decreasing.
Nevertheless, it will remain cold with overnight lows for both
Friday and Saturday in the 10s and 20s. Highs on Saturday will be
in the 20s with coastal spots in the 30s.
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Upper-level ridging will
begin to take hold on Sunday into most of Tuesday. Temperatures
are to remain below average but should begin to gradually warm a
bit. We'll reintroduce PoPs back into the forecast on Tuesday
night into Wednesday as guidance has a front entering during this
time.
McMillian
&&
.AVIATION...Northwesterly flow will increase aloft tonight through
Thursday with an upper trough over British Columbia. Cigs this
evening generally range VFR to MVFR, with areas of LIFR cigs and fog
developing from KPWT and, KOLM to KCLS due to some clearing. Expect
MVFR to continue for most areas tonight, with potential LIFR
cigs/vsbys for southern Puget Sound at least through 09-10z. Some
brief improvement to low end VFR or SCT Thursday morning (12-18z)
before a front slides southward in the afternoon for the return of
lower cigs, likely MVFR, and potential showers KPAE and southward.
Fraser Outflow winds will increase midday Thursday across Whatcom
County, allowing for a transition to northerly winds through the
afternoon for Puget Sound and towards the Strait of Juan de Fuca.
Colder air will filter into Western Washington with these northerly
winds, allowing at least for the potential of -RASN or potential SN
for lowland sites. However, precipitation will be dependent on the
intensity and location of showers, and likely remain scattered in
nature. Accumulations are not expected at this time, with the
exception of KCLM where a few inches of snow are possible.
Otherwise, precipitation will gradually taper off Thursday night
into Friday morning. North winds for most areas by Thursday night,
remaining breezing for KBLI area.
KSEA...Generally MVFR cigs through tonight, although brief periods
of IFR may be possible, with probabilities generally ranging near 30-
40%. Some improvements to higher end MVFR of potential brief SCT
between 12-18z. Cigs will fall towards MVFR midday into the
afternoon with increasing precipitation potential. Precipitation
will likely begin as rain, however, a transition to rain/snow may be
possible in the afternoon. At this time, snow accumulations are not
expected. Southwest winds will transition more northerly generally
around 20-22z. Northerly winds then continue through Thursday
evening and night. JD
&&
.MARINE...Small Craft Advisories continue over the coastal waters
this afternoon for both winds and seas as a stationary front--
associated with the developing airmass boundary associated with the
the high pressure system building over British Columbia.
A push of westerly winds will push through the Strait of Juan de
Fuca beginning late tonight through tomorrow. Guidance has continued
to indicate winds will hover right around 30 kt with only a 30-40%
chance of seeing gale force winds, thus have decided to transition
the Gale Watch to a Small Craft Advisory. Winds will also spill over
into Admiralty Inlet. Gusty northerly winds will also will push
through the Strait of Georgia starting early tomorrow, thus have
issued a Small Craft Advisory for the Northern Inland Waters.
Winds will begin to turn northeasterly, first through the Strait of
Georgia then funnel offshore through the Strait of Juan de Fuca
Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening as the Fraser River outflow
winds begin to kick in. Winds currently are expected to peak early
Friday morning but continue through Saturday. SCA level winds will
likely continue through the Strait of Juan de Fuca and into the
coastal waters. Peak winds in the Strait of Georgia late Thursday
evening into Friday morning look to approach just under gale force,
thus have issued a Gale Watch for the Northern Inland Waters.
Additional headlines will likely continue through Friday and into
Saturday as winds remain elevated.
With the coldest temperatures and the strongest winds expected late
Thursday evening into Friday, the potential for light to moderate
icing accumulation from freezing spray exists for the Strait of
Georgia, especially north of the San Juan Islands. Wave heights in
the strait look to be the primary limiting factor. But, if winds
look to be more solidly gale force and waves are higher with future
forecast updates, this may warrant additional headlines.
Combined seas 15 to 18 ft will slowly decline the next few days,
around 14 to 17 ft tomorrow, then dropping below 10 ft Friday. Seas
continue around 8 to 12 ft through the weekend with a westerly swell
train.
LH
&&
.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding expected in the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Chill Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 7 AM PST Saturday for
Western Whatcom County.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM Thursday to 7 AM PST Saturday for
Western Whatcom County.
Winter Storm Warning from 4 AM Thursday to 6 AM PST Friday for
West Slopes North Central Cascades and Passes-West Slopes
South Central Cascades and Passes.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 7 PM PST Thursday for Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday morning for
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for
Admiralty Inlet.
&&9 cold/wind chill, 5 heavy snow, 2 high wind, 2 ice storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Four and a half inches of snowfall was recorded 1 mile west southwest of Dungeness. Four inches of snowfall was reported at Port Angeles. Six inches of snowfall was reported 2 miles east southeast of Sequim. Five and a half inches of snowfall was record 2 miles of Agnew.
Six inches of snowfall was reported 2 miles east southeast of Sequim.
Four inches of snowfall was reported at Port Angeles.
Four inches of snowfall was reported at Chimacum.
Five and a half inches of snowfall was record 2 miles of Agnew.
A record low temperature of 16 degrees was observed at NWS Seattle. This broke the previous record for the date of 17 degrees set in 1909.
A record low temperature of 3 degrees was recorded at Bellingham airport. This broke the previous record of 4 degrees set in 1950.
Here's an article excerpt taken from the Seattle Times 01/18/24.
At least five people have died from hypothermia in Seattle since Jan. 11, during a stretch of days that saw temperatures plummet well below freezing, according to the King County medical examiner’s office.
Authorities have not said whether any of them were experiencing homelessness, but extreme cold presents a troubling and increasingly common danger facing the people forced to live outside.
A record low temperature of 7 degrees was recorded at Bellingham airport. This broke the previous record of 15 set in 2007.
A record low temperature of 20 degrees was set at Quillayute Airport. This broke the previous record of 21 set in 2017.
A record low temperature of 20 degrees was set at Hoquiam airport. This broke the previous record of 24 set in 2017.
A wind gust of 65 miles per hour was recorded at Greenwater.
A wind gust of 62 miles per hour was recorded at Kosmos.
A record low temperature of 20 degrees was recorded at Hoquiam airport. This broke the previous record of 25 set in 2007.
A record low temperature of 15 degrees was recorded at Olympia airport. This tied the previous record set in 2007.
A record low temperature of 16 degrees was recorded at Olympia airport. This tied the previous record set in 1950.
One tenth of an inch of freezing rain reported 5 miles east northeast of Cedar Falls. Two tenths of an inch of freezing rain reported 1 mile south southwest of Sahalee.
Two tenths of an inch of freezing rain reported 1 mile south southwest of Sahalee.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cold/Wind Chill, Seattle and Vicinity | 2024-01-16 | 37 | Male | Unknown | Direct |
| Cold/Wind Chill, Seattle and Vicinity | 2024-01-16 | 67 | Male | Unknown | Direct |
| Cold/Wind Chill, Seattle and Vicinity | 2024-01-16 | 63 | Male | Unknown | Direct |
| Cold/Wind Chill, Seattle and Vicinity | 2024-01-16 | 67 | Unknown | Direct | |
| Cold/Wind Chill, Seattle and Vicinity | 2024-01-16 | 53 | Male | Unknown | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, January 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1160327, 1160328, 1160329, 1160330, 1160331, 1160297, 1160299, 1160372, 1160302, 1160307, 1160308, 1160333, 1160335, 1160312, 1160314, 1160316, 1160337, 1160340.