Strong gradient winds out of the south coupled with local geographical enhancements set off the Valley Wind Machine during the day on Tuesday February 27, 2024. In particular, winds were strongest over Cameron and Hidalgo Counties.
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The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Strong gradient winds out of the south coupled with local geographical enhancements set off the Valley Wind Machine during the day on Tuesday February 27, 2024. In particular, winds were strongest over Cameron and Hidalgo Counties. That's where peak wind gusts out of the south generally ranged between 30-50 mph. While, most places in Cameron and Hidalgo Counties ranged between 30-50 mph, Brownsville/South Padre Island International Airport reported a peak wind gust of 63 mph. That was the highest of the day. Wind Advisories were issued for both Cameron and Hidalgo Counties. Airport Weather Warnings were issued for both Brownsville/South Padre Island International Airport (KBRO) and Harlingen Airport (KHRL).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 27, 2:11 PM CST, 13 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
211 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...
.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
The Valley wind machine will scale back late this evening as
southward moving high pressure from the Plains fills in behind
retreating lower pressure and an advancing cold front. Low temps
tonight will be generally in the 60s. As winds decrease tonight, low
clouds and patchy light fog will develop, greeting sunrise and
lingering into mid morning.
The cold front will move through the Upper Valley late morning, and
will progress toward and reach the coast by mid afternoon. Strong
north to northeast winds will develop behind the front. Can' t rule
out the possibility of a short-lived wind advisory along the coast.
The frontal passage should be dry but the cooler air will set up an
inversion and low clouds will stick around rather than immediately
clearing as with some other scenarios. High temps will still reach
the mid 80s Wednesday afternoon due to the later in the day passage.
Relative humidly values will plummet into the 20s across the RGV
Plains.
Tuesday night low temps will fall into the 50s except right at the
coast. Rain chances will be mostly muted in the short term, but a
few showers could develop late Wednesday night with the emergence of
a coastal trough. Some of those showers could venture over the Lower
Valley late night to early Thursday morning. A high rip current risk
is pegged to continue now through Wednesday night.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
A mid-level low will pass to the north of Deep South Texas and the
Rio Grande Valley on Thursday into Friday this will bring about
southwesterly flow aloft. During the weekend, this the flow aloft is
expected to become zonal ahead of the next frontal system to
approach during the early work week. On the surface, more cold air
advection and northerly flow is expected to last until Saturday.
This northerly flow is expected to bring in more dry air with it.
Thanks to the expected widespread cloud coverage, temperatures have
been kept below the NBM guidance. PoPs were bumped up along the
coast due to the expected presence of a coastal trough developing.
Moving into Thursday, PWAT values do start to surge upward to the
range of 1.5 to 1.6, which is above the 90th percentile and near the
daily max values for precipitable water for Leap Day and March 1st.
Despite all this moisture, the best chances for rain are along the
coast. PoPs have been adjusted to 20 percent along the coast for
Thursday and Friday.
During the course of the weekend, the frontal boundary is expected
to make a return trip over the Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande
Valley as a warm front. This is expected to help temperatures reach
into the 80s for the weekend and early work week. It is also
possible that some parts of Starr and Zapata could get into the low
90s on Sunday, but that will be dependent on cloud coverage.
Models are showing that another cold front could pass through the
region on Tuesday, however at this point this cold front does not
appear to be strong and does not have any precipitation associated
with it. However, there is still plenty of time before this front
arrives, so the models could change.
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1018 AM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Issued airport weather warnings for Brownsville and Harlingen
airports due to south winds gusting above 40 mph. The strong winds
will continue through this afternoon. Plains low pressure
interacting with higher Gulf pressure (one of the usual culprits)
is causing a tighter local gradient which is supporting the higher
winds. Winds will decrease this evening and overnight ahead of an
approaching dry cold front due Wednesday afternoon. Model
guidance brings in lower (MVFR) ceilings and even some light fog
early to mid Wednesday morning. Winds will switch to northeast
early Wednesday afternoon with the arrival of the front. Timing
could vary on the order of a couple of hours, however.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Now through Wednesday night...Extended the small craft advisory on
the Gulf through midnight. Winds should decrease below criteria
after midnight, but seas may remain slightly elevated. Small craft
advisory conditions will develop again Wednesday afternoon after a
cold front passage.
Thursday through Next Tuesday...An adverse start for the waters on
Thursday will quickly give way to more favorable conditions by
Thursday afternoon. Chances of showers and isolated thunderstorms
are possible Thursday and Friday. Light to moderate winds and low to
moderate seas are expected Friday through Tuesday as northerly winds
turn back towards the south.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 210 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024
Wednesday...The Wednesday cold front will bring lower relative
humidity values and moderately strong winds for the RGV Plains and
portions of the Upper Valley and northern Ranchlands. A window of
enhanced wildfire growth and spread potential will occur Wednesday
afternoon from noon to around 6 PM.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE 68 83 62 72 / 0 0 20 30
HARLINGEN 65 83 57 68 / 0 0 10 20
MCALLEN 67 85 57 67 / 0 0 10 20
RIO GRANDE CITY 65 87 57 67 / 0 0 10 10
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 67 74 63 69 / 0 10 10 40
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 80 60 71 / 0 0 10 30
&&
.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory until 5 PM CST this afternoon for TXZ254-255-354-
355.
High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ451-454-455.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132-
135.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ150-155-
170-175.
&&
SHORT TERM...54-BHM
LONG TERM....64-Katz
AVIATION...54-BHMThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Brownsville/South Padre Island International Airport (KBRO) clocked a peak wind gust of 63 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1154117.