Tornado and Hail in Michigan, February 27 to 28, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
747 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe Weather Potential Remains This Evening and Tonight

- Powerful Cold Front Brings Snow, Wind and Slick Roads Wednesday

- Dry and Warming Trend Into The Weekend

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 733 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

Adjusted POPs and Weather for tonight to match up with radar
trends and generally followed the HRRR with a line of storms
expanding eastward from the cluster of convection across northern
Illinois in an area of stronger theta-e advection. Still expect
the main threat to be large hail, but a wind threat and chance for
at least a brief QLCS-type tornado exists across the southern CWA
border.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

- Severe Weather Potential Remains This Evening and Tonight

Our thinking has not changed much over the course of the last few
days and even as the event approaches we continue to believe we
will see some severe weather in the 700pm to 300am time frame
tonight. The parameter space is at levels we thought it would be
if not even a bit better. Surface based CAPE values are 2,000 j/kg
in our Southern CWA. The SPC mesoanalysis page along with current
RAP soundings in Southern Kalamazoo County show the cap has
eroded. MUCAPE values in the same 19z RAP sounding show MUCAPE
values of 2300 j/kg and 0-6km deep layer shear of 33 knots. The
shear values should increase as the low level jet moves in this
evening as does the upper level jet from the plains. Plenty of
shear will be available. Therefore, organized storms are expected
with rotating updrafts. Severe wind and hail are distinct
possibilities as are isolated tornadoes.

Regarding the tornado threat a secondary surface low looks to be
developing in the Northeast Missouri vicinity. This low is
forecast to lift northeast across Lake Michigan this evening which
may tend to lift a warm front into the southern CWA near I-94. The
warm front may become a focus for convection and the possibility
of acquiring stronger low level shear. Storm modes will be mixed
with lines and bows with a few embedded supercells as well. The
radar is expected to become active later this evening with the
most concerning time frame likely between 700pm and midnight.
Storms will continue after midnight but the may tend to be outflow
dominant by then. Bottom line...all hazards remain in play.
Watches and warnings are certainly possible this evening and
overnight.

- Powerful Cold Front Brings Snow, Wind and Slick Roads Wednesday

A very strong cold front will plow through the area late tonight
and Wednesday morning. Temperatures around daybreak across it will
range from the 50s in Detroit to the single digits in Wisconsin.
Rain water on area roads and sidewalks may flash freeze in the
400am to 1000am time frame as the cold front surges through the
area. We have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for our western two
rows of counties as this is where more snow will occur. We think a
half inch is likely in many areas with local amounts up to 1-2
inches. The rapid drop in temperatures and burst of snow will
likely result in some travel problems Wednesday morning.

To the east, a Wind Advisory will be issued for the eastern 2 rows
of counties. There will be a little bit of snow there as well, but
much less. Most locations will see a trace. A few spots may see a
half inch. The flash freeze is a possibility as well, but given
less snow we went with the bigger threat and that is the wind.
Wind gusts on Wednesday will be 40-45 mph in the west and 45 to 50
mph in the east. Some power outages are likely on Wednesday in
spots.

- Dry and Warming Trend Into The Weekend

Upper level ridging and high pressure build in through the weekend.
We'll have to watch a brief shortwave trough that moves through
Friday. At this time this system looks to track just south of our
area. Under the ridge temperatures are expected to warm each day
with pretty good agreement in the ensembles of highs in the 30s on
Thursday warming into the 60s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 648 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

VFR conditions early this evening with south winds gusting to 20
to 25 knots at times along with some LLWS. A line of strong to
severe thunderstorms storms will bring IFR conditions around 03Z
to 04Z near AZO and BTL. These storms could bring wind gusts to
50 knots and hail more than one inch in diameter. The storms will
be moving through central Lower Michigan, including MKG, GRR and
LAN, as well as JXN between 04Z to 05Z. There will be scattered
showers and thunderstorms behind the line of storms through about
08Z.

A strong cold front moves through Lower Michigan around 12Z and
this is followed by strong northwest winds gusting to 40 knots at
times as well as snow showers that will bring areas of IFR
conditions across western Lower Michigan through Wednesday
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

Multiple hazards ongoing and expected over Lake Michigan over the
next 24 to 36 hours. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory was issued early
today for the fog bank over Lake Michigan north of Holland. This
area of fog is somewhat ephemeral in that it is currently
shrinking in size after being somewhat widespread earlier this
afternoon. It is occuring due to high dew point air riding over
cold Lake Michigan waters. This will continue to be the case until
the cold front sweeps through overnight. So, the fog may be
somewhat in and out this evening but the threat remains so we will
continue the advisory.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect now and continues into the
overnight. The SCA transitions into a Gale Warning at 100am. Winds
in the mixed layer are 40 knots over Lake Michigan so gales to
that level are expected given the well mixed air behind the cold
front. Winds should drop below Gale Force Wednesday evening, but
it will stay windy through Wednesday night.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Wednesday for
     MIZ037-038-043-044-050-056-057-064-065-071-072.
     Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for MIZ039-040-045-
     046-051-052-058-059-066-067-073-074.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.
     Gale Warning from 1 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for LMZ844>849.

&&

UPDATE...Ostuno
DISCUSSION...Duke/RAH
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Duke

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1201 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074-280830-
Mason-Lake-Osceola-Clare-Oceana-Newaygo-Mecosta-Isabella-Muskegon-
Montcalm-Gratiot-Ottawa-Kent-Ionia-Clinton-Allegan-Barry-Eaton-
Ingham-Van Buren-Kalamazoo-Calhoun-Jackson-
1201 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are likely this evening and tonight. Some of these
storms could become severe. The best chance for severe weather will
be near and south of Interstate 96 between 700 pm and 200 am. Large
hail, damaging winds and an isolated tornado are all possible.

Rain showers will change over to snow showers late tonight and
Wednesday morning. Temperatures will plummet behind a strong cold
front to below freezing, causing wet roads to flash freeze for the
Wednesday morning commute. Some light snow accumulations will be
likely west of U.S. Highway 131.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Snow showers will wind down through Wednesday. Wind gusts to 40
mph will be likely as the strong storm system pulls away.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be possible late this evening and during
the early overnight hours.

LMZ844>849-280830-
St Joseph to South Haven MI-South Haven to Holland MI-
Holland to Grand Haven MI-Grand Haven to Whitehall MI-
Whitehall to Pentwater MI-Pentwater to Manistee MI-
1201 PM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest Lower
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Conditions will be hazardous for Small Craft for today through this
evening. Gales will develop after midnight creating hazardous
conditions for all mariners.

Thunderstorms will pose a hazard to mariners on Lake Michigan
tonight, especially south of Whitehall. Strong winds, large hail and
an isolated waterspout are all possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Gales on Wednesday will gradually taper off through the day on
Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be possible late this evening and during
the early overnight hours.

NJJ/DUKE