Strong Wind in Tennessee, February 27, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
631 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 150 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

Another unusually warm day for late February across the midstate
with current temperatures ranging from the mid 60s in our
northeast up to the mid 70s in our southwest. Strong WAA underway
with south to southwest winds gusting up to 40 mph will likely
nudge temperatures up a few more degrees prior to sunset, with
temps only slowly falling this evening due to the continued gusty
winds. In fact, winds will likely increase a bit more as the 925mb
LLJ strengthens to 50-55 knots this evening. A few isolated
showers also remain possible the rest of today, mainly in our
south and east, but CAMs don't indicate anything of note will
develop.

Tonight into tomorrow, a line of showers and a few thunderstorms
is expected to develop along a cold front to our northwest, then
sweep southeastward through the cwa in roughly the 09Z-17Z
timeframe. Forecast soundings show a very strong capping inversion
in place ahead of the boundary, which would require lift from the
boundary itself to overcome. In addition, limited instability is
shown on soundings with 200 J/Kg or less. Therefore, severe
weather threat in our forecast area appears negligible, but a
strong storm or two with small hail and gusty winds could occur.
Main story will be the dramatic temperature drop behind the cold
front. Temperatures that will be in the 60s to low 70s early
Wednesday morning will plummet into the mid to upper 20s by
Wednesday night. Precip looks to move out before temperatures get
cold enough, but there is a low chance for some sleet to mix in on
the back edge of the rain as it moves out. Winds will also have a
sharp shift to northwest and become quite strong post-fropa, and
have extended the Wind Advisory through 18Z on Wednesday to
account for this.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 150 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

After the chilly start in the 20s on Thursday morning, temps will
rebound nicely into the upper 40s and 50s by afternoon. This quick
warmup will be just ahead of a low amplitude shortwave expected to
bring us some scattered showers from Thursday night through Friday
into early Saturday. Due to the limited amount of time prior to
the system for Gulf moisture to return, no thunderstorms are
anticipated and rainfall amounts will generally be less than one
quarter inch. A big warmup is then anticipated over the weekend
into the first week of March as another deep trough develops
across the western and central CONUS. Highs look to soar back into
the 60s on Saturday and 70s on Sunday. 12Z models are in general
agreement that a shortwave ejecting out of the trough into the
Tennessee Valley will bring our next rain chances from Monday
into Tuesday of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 543 PM CST Tue Feb 27 2024

VFR high overcast clouds are expected to stick around throughout
the evening, then drop to MVFR heights once showers and a few
storms develop early Wednesday morning. Showers and storms will
make their way from west to east impacting terminals from 4AM to
around 12PM. Visibilities may briefly fall with the heavier rain.
After precip moves off to the east, clouds should begin to break
up, slowly returning to VFR conditions.

Winds will be gusty throughout the period ,from the southwest
tonight, then out of the northwest on Wednesday. Gusts around 30
knots may be common Wednesday morning. Low level wind shear is
most likely to reach its peak from 09Z to 12Z as the winds aloft
increase.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      57  62  29  51 /  30  90   0   0
Clarksville    48  52  27  50 /  70  70   0   0
Crossville     59  62  24  48 /  20 100   0   0
Columbia       59  64  28  51 /  20  90   0   0
Cookeville     61  62  27  49 /  30 100   0   0
Jamestown      59  60  24  48 /  30 100   0   0
Lawrenceburg   62  64  29  51 /  20  90   0   0
Murfreesboro   61  64  27  52 /  20  90   0   0
Waverly        48  53  29  50 /  60  70   0   0

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for Bedford-Cannon-
Cheatham-Clay-Coffee-Cumberland-Davidson-De Kalb-Dickson-
Fentress-Giles-Grundy-Hickman-Houston-Humphreys-Jackson-Lawrence-
Lewis-Macon-Marshall-Maury-Montgomery-Overton-Perry-Pickett-
Putnam-Robertson-Rutherford-Smith-Stewart-Sumner-Trousdale-Van
Buren-Warren-Wayne-White-Williamson-Wilson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Shamburger
LONG TERM....Shamburger
AVIATION.....Whitehead