Despite a slow-moving strong winter storm impacting the state in the beginning of the month along with some beneficial rain and mountain snow across southern and eastern NM in the middle of the month, severe drought conditions across far southeast Lincoln County and southwest Chaves County persisted.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
Despite a slow-moving strong winter storm impacting the state in the beginning of the month along with some beneficial rain and mountain snow across southern and eastern NM in the middle of the month, severe drought conditions across far southeast Lincoln County and southwest Chaves County persisted.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 10:58 PM MST, 1 hour 2 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 1158 PM MDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1158 PM MDT Thu Oct 31 2024 - Locally heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and strong to severe storms are possible in eastern and southeastern NM late Friday through mid-day Saturday. - Confidence is increasing that a cold fall storm system will bring the first noteworthy snow of the season to the northern and western high terrain Sunday night through Monday night. && .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 134 PM MDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Tranquil and cool weather conditions today will trend warmer Friday and Saturday with increasing south to southwest winds. Meanwhile, moisture will surge northward into southeast NM Friday with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. Some of these storms may become strong to severe with heavy rainfall, hail, and gusty winds. Rainfall amounts are expected to average 1 to 2 inches across Chaves, Roosevelt, and Curry counties. Locally higher amounts and flash flooding may occur in areas that receive several rounds of heavy rainfall. The focus will then shift to winter weather as the next storm approaches from the west. Rain and high terrain snow showers will develop over northern and western NM Sunday evening then spread eastward into northern, central, and northeastern NM Monday. Much colder air with this system will allow snow levels to fall to near 6,000 feet Monday. Greater than 6 inches of snow is possible across the northern mountains above 8,000 feet while lower terrain areas down to 6,000 feet pick up a couple inches. Gusty winds and blowing snow may lead to low visibility and hazardous travel through the high terrain. Tuesday and Wednesday will feature a gradual warmup && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 134 PM MDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Benign, yet still cool, weather following a widespread freeze this morning rules across New Mexico this Halloween afternoon, courtesy of a dry troposphere and quasi-zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will be falling into the upper 40s to upper 50s F range across most areas during prime trick-or-treating hours as gentle daytime breezes subside after sunset. Overnight low temperatures generally recover 5-10 deg F from this morning's values, with valleys still dipping a couple of degrees below normal for the 1st of November. Subtle changes will begin occurring aloft, however, as flow at H25 backs slightly to the WSW and precipitable water values begin creeping up over SE NM, toward 0.5" in Chaves and Roosevelt Counties by 12Z. Most of daytime Friday should be fairly pleasant, as a long fetch of SW flow at H5 sets up and adds moisture to mid levels, while a moist SSE flow pumps up surface dewpoints over SE/East Central NM into the mid-50s by 00Z/Sat. Consequently, PW values reach 0.8-1.0 inches in this area. A few light showers may break out late in the afternoon, but by evening, large-scale ascent increases as a broad area of H25 divergence, associated with broad jet coupling, overspreads SE NM. This lift and increasing instability is forecast to produce several rounds (per HRRR/HREF runs) of fast-moving showers and thunderstorms from Friday evening into Saturday morning. Training storms are a cause for concern with regard to potential flash-flooding, particularly in sensitive ares such as Roswell and more flood-prone localities like Clovis. Latest deterministic QPF from WPC has 1.0-1.2" total falling around Roswell through Saturday morning, with totals approaching 2 inches in SE Chaves County. Localized amounts of up 3 inches are certainly within the realm of possibility, consistent with HREF probability-matched mean amounts. Given all of this, and keeping in mind the sensitivity of the Roswell area after the historic flooding of only 12 days ago, opted to issue a Flash Flood Watch for Chaves, Curry, and Roosevelt Counties from 6 PM Friday through 9 AM Saturday. Also coordinated with WPC to add a targeted Slight Risk area to the Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Day 2, which covers this timeframe. Apart from that, much of the state, especially west of I-25, will stay dry. There is also a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms, per the Storm Prediction Center, for this same general area in east- central/SE NM, which straddles Day 2/Day 3 due to the overnight nature of the event. Main threats would be large hail (1+ inch) and perhaps some marginally severe gusts. Large-scale forcing and moisture will be sufficient, but less confident on the severe threat overall vs. flash flooding. Storms likely to remain elevated overnight. H5 wind speeds of 30-40 knots, above surface flow around 10 knots, keep 0-6 km shear a bit marginal for supercellular structures, with multicells being favored. Latest deterministic runs shading a little quicker with moving the precip shield out of the area stage right during the day on Saturday. NBM holding onto 30-40% PoPs near the Texas border through the afternoon in lingering showers (though light), but could see these numbers coming down with future runs. Otherwise, temperatures continue recovering to 2-5 degrees above normal Saturday afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through Wednesday) Issued at 134 PM MDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Any showers and storms lingering over far eastern NM Saturday night will exit the region as the associated subtropical jet shifts east into the southern plains states. A ~110kt speed max progged to cross the Sierras will be carving out an H5 trough axis over the Great Basin by 12Z Sunday. Forecast models are in very good agreement with the trough axis stretching from near Salt Lake to Flagstaff Sunday morning. The main differences are associated with the sharpness of the trough axis with the bulk of guidance favoring a broader, longer wavelength. The 00Z cluster analysis favored this broader solution with the Canadian ensemble members on top. Deterministic model agreement remains tight at 00Z Monday with an H5 low deepening to near 552dm somewhere over northern AZ as the upper level speed max rounds the trough into northern Chihuahua. This agreement continues thru 12Z Monday with the H5 low sliding east along the I-40 corridor into central NM. The main cluster differences Sunday night and Monday are with regard to a potentially slower and deeper H5 low as it kicks across west-central NM. Meanwhile, moist cold air advection associated with the trough will be moving east with fast top-down moistening of the column. Large-scale ascent over NM will allow rain and high terrain snow showers to develop from west to east with orographics favoring the Tusas, San Juans, Chuskas, and Mogollon Rim Sunday night. PWATs are not overly impressive, but there will be plenty of lift while 700mb temps fall to between -2 and -5C by Monday morning over northern and western NM. These readings drop to between -4 and -8C Monday as the H5 low crosses central NM. A stronger backdoor cold front is now lining up with this system Monday which will enhance surface convergence and lift along the Sangre de Cristo Mts and potentially as far southwest as the Sandia/Manzano Mts. The 13Z NBM has trended higher with snowfall amounts and the probabilities for >6” are creeping above 50% for the northern mountains above 8,000’. This is solidly within Winter Wx Advisory parameters and given it is the first noteworthy event of the season, folks will need to be prepared for winter travel conditions and possible delays or closures on Monday. Locations from 6,000’ to 8,000’ are also expected to pick up a dusting to a few inches of snow. There is wind to contend with as the trough passes over the area so blowing snow and low visibility in the high terrain may lead to worsening impacts. This may be especially true for northeast NM where the backdoor cold front will bring significantly colder temps Monday with snow possibly as far south as the I-40 corridor of eastern NM. Monday night will be very cold again with many areas falling into the teens and 20s. Snowpack over northern and western valleys may allow some single digits as well. Roswell did not see a freeze last night while everyone else did. Monday night will be the night to watch for readings below 32F even in the city. Quieter weather and gradual warming is in store Tuesday before winds increase Wednesday ahead of the next storm system approaching from the Great Basin. There is significantly more model disagreement with this system into Thursday however there is potential for another round of snow for much of the higher terrain with below normal temps areawide. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 PM MDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Patches of high clouds developing across southern TAF sites just before sunrise expanding in coverage and spreading north across the rest of the airspace during the day. Developing southeast return flow in southeast NM during the day will result in increasing low clouds along with the development of showers and thunderstorms after sunset in the last few hours of the TAF period. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 134 PM MDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Critical fire weather conditions are not expected for the next seven days. Locally elevated conditions could occur, mainly to the west of I-25, on Friday and more so on Saturday, as minimum RH values fall below 20% and 20-foot winds from the southwest reach 10-15 mph for a few hours during the afternoons. Thereafter, increasing moisture from the next Pacific storm system brings widespread wetting rain and accumulating snow generally above 6,500 ft. MSL for Sunday into Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 58 29 63 34 / 0 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 54 16 61 21 / 0 0 0 0 Cuba............................ 57 26 60 32 / 0 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 62 21 64 24 / 0 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 58 28 62 33 / 0 0 0 0 Grants.......................... 61 22 63 25 / 0 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 63 26 65 30 / 0 0 0 0 Magdalena....................... 61 34 65 40 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 62 30 64 34 / 0 0 0 0 Reserve......................... 65 26 70 27 / 0 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 70 39 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 47 20 55 26 / 0 0 0 0 Los Alamos...................... 51 34 57 39 / 0 0 0 5 Pecos........................... 55 33 60 37 / 0 0 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 49 29 56 34 / 0 0 0 5 Red River....................... 40 24 49 28 / 0 0 0 5 Angel Fire...................... 49 16 55 16 / 0 0 0 5 Taos............................ 53 22 59 28 / 0 0 0 5 Mora............................ 58 27 61 31 / 0 0 0 10 Espanola........................ 58 25 65 30 / 0 0 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 54 35 60 41 / 0 0 0 10 Santa Fe Airport................ 56 29 62 37 / 0 0 0 10 Albuquerque Foothills........... 56 39 66 44 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Heights............. 60 34 67 40 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 61 32 68 38 / 0 0 0 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 59 35 66 41 / 0 0 0 5 Belen........................... 62 28 67 33 / 0 0 0 5 Bernalillo...................... 59 32 67 38 / 0 0 0 5 Bosque Farms.................... 61 27 67 32 / 0 0 0 5 Corrales........................ 59 32 67 38 / 0 0 0 5 Los Lunas....................... 60 30 67 35 / 0 0 0 5 Placitas........................ 57 36 65 43 / 0 0 0 5 Rio Rancho...................... 57 34 66 39 / 0 0 0 5 Socorro......................... 66 36 73 41 / 0 0 0 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 56 34 61 38 / 0 0 0 10 Tijeras......................... 56 34 63 41 / 0 0 0 10 Edgewood........................ 58 27 65 34 / 0 0 0 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 61 21 67 28 / 0 0 0 10 Clines Corners.................. 56 31 63 37 / 0 0 0 10 Mountainair..................... 60 31 66 37 / 0 0 0 10 Gran Quivira.................... 58 32 66 37 / 0 0 0 10 Carrizozo....................... 63 39 70 44 / 0 0 5 30 Ruidoso......................... 59 39 67 43 / 0 0 5 50 Capulin......................... 53 30 60 37 / 0 0 0 10 Raton........................... 58 25 63 31 / 0 0 0 5 Springer........................ 59 25 66 32 / 0 0 0 10 Las Vegas....................... 61 29 62 35 / 0 0 0 20 Clayton......................... 57 39 67 46 / 0 0 0 30 Roy............................. 56 32 62 41 / 0 0 0 30 Conchas......................... 68 34 70 46 / 0 0 0 50 Santa Rosa...................... 65 33 67 45 / 0 0 0 50 Tucumcari....................... 64 37 70 48 / 0 0 0 70 Clovis.......................... 67 41 70 53 / 0 0 5 90 Portales........................ 68 40 71 53 / 0 0 10 90 Fort Sumner..................... 63 35 68 50 / 0 0 5 70 Roswell......................... 69 44 73 56 / 0 0 5 80 Picacho......................... 66 39 71 47 / 0 0 5 60 Elk............................. 68 38 74 44 / 0 0 5 70 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday morning for NMZ235-236-238. && SHORT TERM...53 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...71
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
4 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Localized severe drought conditions persisted across the far southeast portion of the zone, mainly southeast of U.S Highway 70.
Severe drought conditions persisted across the far southern border of the zone around Lake Arthur.
Severe drought conditions persisted in the southern portion of the zone, mainly south of U.S. Highway 70.
Severe drought conditions persisted across a majority of the zone.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, November 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1219538, 1219539, 1219540, 1219541.