New Mexico, 2024High Wind in New Mexico, January 11, 2024
January 11, 2024 · NWS ABQ · 4 events in 3 counties and zones
A strong section of the jetstream brought high winds translating to the surface over parts of south-central and southeastern NM stretching from the Upper Tularosa Valley to Roswell. Peak gusts of 60 to 86 mph were measured by various mesonet and ASOS sites.
Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
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- Deaths
- 0
- Injuries
- 0
- Property damage
- None recorded
- Crop damage
- None recorded
- Events
- 4
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A strong section of the jetstream brought high winds translating to the surface over parts of south-central and southeastern NM stretching from the Upper Tularosa Valley to Roswell. Peak gusts of 60 to 86 mph were measured by various mesonet and ASOS sites. No damage or injuries were reported.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 11, 4:58 AM MST, 5 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jan 11, 4:58 AM MST, 5 hours 17 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
458 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 322 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
Cold temperatures are generally forecast for the next seven days
with many locations remaining a few to several degrees below
1991 to 2020 averages daily. A storm system will produce a few to
several inches of snow accumulation across western and north
central areas this morning through this evening, as well as over
the central and south central mountains. In addition, strong winds
are forecast today through Saturday, with the strongest gusts
reaching over 60 mph along and just east of the south central
mountains today, and potentially up to 70 mph along the east
slopes of the central mountain chain Friday night into Saturday. Another
disturbance could bring more snow to the northern mountains
westward Saturday night through Sunday evening, as well as an
Arctic airmass to northeast and east central New Mexico. The
potential exists for subfreezing temperatures across northeast and
east central areas Saturday through Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 322 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
An upper level trough is moving over the intermountain west with a
couple of distinct embedded shortwave perturbations that are
currently moving over CA and poised to quickly swing through AZ
through the late morning before crossing NM in a more neutrally (but
still positive) tilted fashion through the afternoon and evening.
Stronger winds aloft are already feeding into NM and will continue
to through the morning with the strongest mid level jet orienting
itself over southern NM and Chihuahua by mid to late day. Inherited
short term wind forecast looked to be in great order, so only minor
tweaks were made through today and tonight with the speeds ramping
up from the southwest this morning and then veering more westerly
while increasing more this afternoon. Speeds then are expected to
increase a bit more immediately along and behind the Pacific front
as they turn more northwesterly through this evening. With this in
mind, we will be expanding Wind Advisories to some central areas for
late this afternoon and in surrounding southwestern and central
mountain zones this evening.
The inherited Winter Weather Advisories look on track, and do not
plan any amendments with this package. As was expected, snow is
starting in the northern mountains and will expand over the
northwestern areas of the forecast area around and just after dawn.
West central areas get their turn toward mid day and central areas
by late afternoon as the trough axis overtakes NM. Cold temperatures
aloft, generally ranging from -7 to -10 C at 700 mb ahead of the
main baroclinic zone will raise snow-to-liquid ratios and of course
temperatures will drop further as the front passes and precipitation
tapers and wanes. While it will be a short-lived window, QPF will
generally range between 0.1 to 0.3 inch with higher amounts reaching
close to 0.5 inch over some of the northern and high southwest
mountains. The trough axis should overtake the eastern border of NM
by midnight tonight with no appreciable precipitation thereafter,
and a very cold night will be on hand as cold (and very dry) air
advection ensues. Frigid wind chills ranging from sub-zero to single
digit readings will be widespread late tonight into early Friday
morning.
For the remainder of Friday, northwest flow aloft will stay brisk
out of the northwest with 700 mb speeds of 40 to 60 kt over much of
northern and central NM. Surface high pressure will still be
building into the forecast area in the wake of today’s front, and
while the surface gradient may not initially appear to be optimal
for windy conditions, the stout flow aloft will likely create
mountain wave activity on Friday that will buffet much of the
central mountain chain and highlands/high plains immediately to the
east, so another High Wind Watch will be issued. Wind speeds would
fall off quickly working eastward from the central mountain chain.
Single digit to sub-zero dewpoints early Friday morning will
gradually increase through the day and some cold stratocumulus over
the northern mountains may be able to yield a few flurries, but
otherwise dry conditions are forecast on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
The tail end of a northwesterly speed maximum in the polar jet will
linger over the forecast area Friday night and Saturday with a
mountain wave likely developing and a risk of damaging surface
winds. Wind speeds at 700 mb are progged to peak around 55-70 KT
along the east slopes of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and
southward along the Torrance and Guadalupe County line. Dangerous
crosswinds will be possible on north-to-south oriented roads like I-
25.
Models remain in fair agreement on a cold upper level trough
tracking southeastward across the forecast area Saturday night
through Sunday evening with a few to several inches of snow along
and west of the northern mountains. The storm system, a
disturbance clipping northeast NM the day before it, and another
disturbance that will clip northeast NM in northwest flow aloft
Monday, will send a series of shallow backdoor cold fronts into
the eastern plains bolstered by a 1040 mb surface high pressure
system sinking southward over the western Great Plains out of
Canada. A shallow Arctic air mass looks to penetrate northeast NM
Saturday, when Clayton may struggle to reach a high temperature in
the teens. The Arctic air mass will then sag over east central
areas as well on Sunday and Monday with highs along NM's eastern
border varying from the single digits to mid 20s. Models are
notorious for poorly handling these shallow air masses with
bitterly cold temperatures, so it is possible for the cold air to
arrive sooner and push farther west than currently forecast. There
is a risk that all lower elevation locations east of the central
will struggle to reach freezing Sunday and Monday. At this time,
models differ on how much moisture they bring into the area with
the backdoor cold fronts. If enough moisture arrives we could have
a freezing fog and freezing drizzle concerns across the east. The
Arctic air mass is forecast to retreat Tuesday and Wednesday with
warming temperatures. After falling below freezing Friday night,
Clayton may finally rise above freezing again on Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 451 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
Weather conditions will deteriorate through morning and into the
afternoon as a winter storm approaches northern and central New
Mexico. Winds aloft are already increasing and will mix down to
the surface through the late morning and early afternoon,
initially from the southwest, but veering westerly and then
northwesterly going into the evening. Gusts of 30 to 50 kt will be
possible with the strongest gusts over the Sacramento mountains
near KSRR. Winds will remain strong and gusty into the early
morning hours Friday. Snow will lower visibility with IFR to LIFR
ceilings, first in northwestern areas, spreading to central areas
of New Mexico by the afternoon. Snow will decrease in intensity as
it shifts into eastern New Mexico this evening with VFR
conditions returning to most areas after midnight tonight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 322 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
A winter storm will bring colder temperatures, blustery winds and
light to moderate snow to northern and central NM today through the
evening. Snow accumulations of a couple to a few inches are expected
in the western and central zones with higher amounts of several (8
to 12) inches on the high peaks above 9,000 ft. While less, if any,
snow is expected in the eastern plains, the colder temperatures
should help offset any concern for critical fire weather from the
gusty winds. After a frigid start on Friday, mostly drier conditions
are forecast through the rest of the day, and areas immediately
along the central mountain chain will be inundated by strong winds
again which will likely last well through the overnight and into
Saturday and Saturday evening. Temperatures are expected to be too
cool and humidity too high for any critical concerns during these
days, but the winds will pose significant impact on their own. It
should also be noted that an Arctic front will be nosing into far
northeastern NM Saturday before advancing over the majority of the
eastern half of the state by Sunday. While temperatures across
almost all of northern and central NM will be below average on
Sunday, the Arctic front will make these departures much more
significant in the eastern zones where a long multi-day duration of
sub-freezing temperatures is expected, especially in the northeast.
In addition, a modest upper level disturbance will cross northern NM
Sunday, helping to spread light snow over the layer of Arctic air.
The harsh, subnormal temperatures will linger into Monday and will
be slow to temper into the middle of next week as dry northwest flow
relaxes. However, breezy conditions would still impact the central
highlands where gusts to 30 mph cannot be ruled out Tuesday and
Wednesday.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington...................... 31 5 28 10 / 90 0 0 0
Dulce........................... 30 -10 23 3 / 90 20 10 5
Cuba............................ 30 2 27 10 / 90 10 0 0
Gallup.......................... 29 0 33 11 / 90 5 0 0
El Morro........................ 29 -2 29 12 / 90 10 0 0
Grants.......................... 33 4 34 14 / 80 10 0 0
Quemado......................... 33 4 33 14 / 90 30 0 0
Magdalena....................... 37 14 37 23 / 70 10 0 0
Datil........................... 31 9 33 20 / 90 20 0 0
Reserve......................... 36 5 42 12 / 90 30 0 0
Glenwood........................ 38 12 40 22 / 90 30 0 0
Chama........................... 26 -11 17 4 / 90 50 10 5
Los Alamos...................... 31 7 28 17 / 90 20 0 0
Pecos........................... 30 4 27 15 / 80 40 0 0
Cerro/Questa.................... 28 -6 22 11 / 80 80 0 0
Red River....................... 23 -10 16 4 / 90 80 0 0
Angel Fire...................... 25 -18 18 0 / 80 80 5 0
Taos............................ 29 -6 23 3 / 80 60 0 0
Mora............................ 32 2 26 14 / 60 50 0 0
Espanola........................ 36 5 31 12 / 90 30 0 0
Santa Fe........................ 31 7 27 14 / 90 30 0 0
Santa Fe Airport................ 35 6 32 13 / 80 30 0 0
Albuquerque Foothills........... 39 14 35 22 / 80 20 0 0
Albuquerque Heights............. 41 16 37 21 / 70 20 0 0
Albuquerque Valley.............. 43 8 39 19 / 70 10 0 0
Albuquerque West Mesa........... 41 15 37 21 / 70 10 0 0
Belen........................... 46 12 43 17 / 60 10 0 0
Bernalillo...................... 41 14 37 20 / 80 10 0 0
Bosque Farms.................... 44 8 40 17 / 70 10 0 0
Corrales........................ 41 14 37 20 / 70 10 0 0
Los Lunas....................... 45 9 41 18 / 70 10 0 0
Placitas........................ 38 14 34 21 / 80 20 0 0
Rio Rancho...................... 40 15 36 21 / 70 10 0 0
Socorro......................... 47 20 46 24 / 70 10 0 0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 33 11 30 20 / 80 20 0 0
Tijeras......................... 35 13 31 20 / 80 20 0 0
Edgewood........................ 34 12 31 18 / 80 20 0 0
Moriarty/Estancia............... 36 11 33 16 / 70 20 0 0
Clines Corners.................. 31 7 28 17 / 60 20 0 0
Mountainair..................... 37 12 34 21 / 70 20 0 0
Gran Quivira.................... 38 14 36 20 / 70 30 0 0
Carrizozo....................... 45 19 42 25 / 70 40 0 0
Ruidoso......................... 37 15 36 25 / 70 60 0 0
Capulin......................... 32 -4 28 7 / 30 40 0 0
Raton........................... 35 1 31 10 / 40 50 0 0
Springer........................ 39 1 32 10 / 20 40 0 0
Las Vegas....................... 34 6 32 18 / 40 30 0 0
Clayton......................... 40 6 35 7 / 20 30 0 0
Roy............................. 39 9 34 17 / 10 40 0 0
Conchas......................... 46 15 41 21 / 10 40 0 0
Santa Rosa...................... 44 18 38 26 / 20 40 0 0
Tucumcari....................... 47 13 41 21 / 10 60 0 0
Clovis.......................... 51 18 43 26 / 10 40 0 0
Portales........................ 55 18 46 27 / 5 30 0 0
Fort Sumner..................... 50 19 45 26 / 30 30 0 0
Roswell......................... 57 22 52 27 / 0 5 0 0
Picacho......................... 49 21 48 30 / 30 30 0 0
Elk............................. 46 19 47 27 / 40 40 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ201-
202-204>206-208-209-241.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM MST Friday for
NMZ207-219-220.
Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM MST Friday for
NMZ206-208-221>223-241.
Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ203-
210-211-213>216.
High Wind Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening for
NMZ213>215-221-223-226>229-233-239.
Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 11 PM MST this evening
for NMZ224-225-236-238.
High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Friday for NMZ226-239-240.
&&
SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....44
AVIATION...52
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jan 11, 9:01 AM MST, 1 hour 14 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
901 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0700 AM Snow 1 WSW Farmington 36.74N 108.21W
01/11/2024 M1.6 inch San Juan NM Cocorahs
Cocorahs station NM-SJ-25 Farmington 1.4
WSW.
&&Local storm report, Jan 11, 9:36 AM MST, 39 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
936 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0801 AM Snow 1 ESE Cedar Hill 36.93N 107.88W
01/11/2024 M1.0 inch San Juan NM Cocorahs
Cocorahs station NM-SJ-38 Aztec 9.9 NE.
&&Local storm report, Jan 11, 9:38 AM MST, 37 minutes before
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
938 AM MST Thu Jan 11 2024
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1120 AM Non-Tstm Wnd Gst 2 ESE Fort Sumner 34.47N 104.21W
01/10/2024 M62 MPH De Baca NM Mesonet
Mesonet station FTSN5 East Fort Sumner.
&&High Wind, Chaves County Plains
- When
- January 11, 10:15 AM MST to 11:15 AM MST
- Where
- Chaves County Plains forecast zone
- Measured
- 35 kt (40 mph) measured sustained
- Reported by
- ASOS
- Coordinates
- 33.363, -104.467 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The Roswell Airport measured high sustained winds of 40 mph over the course of one hour alongside a peak wind gust of 60 mph.
High Wind, Upper Tularosa Valley
- When
- January 11, 4:39 PM MST to 5:39 PM MST
- Where
- Upper Tularosa Valley forecast zone
- Measured
- 75 kt (86 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- RAWS
- Coordinates
- 33.876, -106.194 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The Chupadera RAWS measured peak gusts of 86 and 74 mph over the course of one hour.
High Wind, South Central Mountains
- When
- January 11, 10:05 PM MST to 10:10 PM MST
- Where
- South Central Mountains forecast zone
- Measured
- 52 kt (60 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- Mesonet
- Coordinates
- 33.745, -105.459 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
A mesonet station near Nogal measured a peak wind gust of 60 mph.
High Wind, Chaves County Plains
- When
- January 11, 10:29 PM MST to 10:31 PM MST
- Where
- Chaves County Plains forecast zone
- Measured
- 52 kt (60 mph) measured gust
- Reported by
- ASOS
- Coordinates
- 33.363, -104.467 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
The Roswell Airport measured a high wind gust of 60 mph during the evening of January 11th.
- High Wind
- Sustained non-thunderstorm winds of 40 mph or more for an hour, or gusts of 58 mph or more.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
- Blizzard and Ice Storm in Oregon, January 11 to 13, 20249 deaths · 16 injured · $48 million · 16 events
- Ice Storm and Heavy Snow in Washington, January 11 to 17, 20245 deaths · 56 kt wind · 18 events
- Avalanche and Heavy Snow in Idaho, January 11, 20241 death · 1 injured · 3 events
- Strong Wind in Arizona, January 11, 20241 death · $500 · 1 event
- Blizzard and Winter Storm in Iowa, January 11 to 13, 2024102 events
- Winter Weather in Idaho, January 11 to 16, 2024$800,000 · 2 events
- High Wind in Texas, January 11, 2024$250,000 · 62 kt wind · 3 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Arkansas, January 11, 2024$187,000 · 1 in hail · 9 events
- Winter Weather in Washington, January 11 to 16, 2024$200,000 · 1 event
- Blizzard and Winter Storm in South Dakota, January 11 to 16, 202447 events
- Blizzard and Winter Storm in Washington, January 11 to 13, 2024$70,000 · 5 events
- Hail and Damaging Winds in Missouri, January 11 to 12, 2024$60,000 · 1 in hail · 8 events
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1147498, 1147496, 1147497, 1147499.