High Wind in New Mexico, December 18, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1040 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1038 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

 - A cold front will bring strong northeasterly winds through
   Guadalupe Pass late tonight through Wednesday morning, where a High
   Wind Warning is in effect.

 - Cooler temperatures and gusty northeast winds are to be
   expected for all on Wednesday.

 - Above normal temperatures and continued dry weather are expected
   through this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 226 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

Visible satellite imagery shows clear skies with a few high clouds
approaching the area. Sunny skies and southerly return flow allow
for high temperatures to climb 10-15 degrees above normal today,
where highs reach the low 70s for many locations and mid to upper
70s near the Rio Grande.

Tonight an upper-level trough will be passing just to the north of
the region, bringing a cold front with it between 07Z and 10Z.
Despite overnight lows holding in the upper 30s to low 40s,
northeasterly winds behind the front pick up and will make it feel
closer to freezing for many. Gap winds in the Guadalupe Pass are
anticipated behind this cold front, prompting an upgrade to a High
Wind Warning from a High Wind Watch which remains in effect until
Wednesday morning. Sustained winds are forecast to be 35-45 mph,
with gusts up to 65 mph. Post-frontal northeasterly winds bring
temperatures down to normal on Wednesday, with highs in the mid to
upper 50s for most. Normal temperatures stick around Wednesday
night as well, with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s for much
of the region. However, locations near the Rio Grande and the
Lower Trans-Pecos see lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Ridging
behind the aforementioned upper-level trough will keep skies clear
and conditions dry throughout the short term.

-Greening

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 226 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

A dry westerly to northwesterly flow pattern aloft will generally
prevail across the region late this week and into the upcoming
weekend. Surface high pressure will shift into eastern portions of
Texas Thursday afternoon while another weak surface cold front
pushes southward across east central New Mexico and the Texas
Panhandle/South Plains. This cold front should push southward
through our forecast area Thursday evening into late Thursday
night. Highs on Thursday should warm into the mid 60s to around 70
degrees over most of the region, except around 60 in the mountains
and in the lower to mid 70s along the Rio Grande. Lows Thursday
night should range in the 30s over most locations, except lower to
mid 40s along the Rio Grande/Big Bend/Lower Trans Pecos. Highs
behind the front on Friday should drop back down into the upper
50s to lower 60s across most of the region, except lower to mid
70s along the Rio Grande.

Another weak front should push into our region Saturday afternoon
into Saturday night. A southerly flow pattern should return for
Sunday and Monday as lee troughing takes shape across eastern New
Mexico and West Texas. High temperatures should continue to
average above normal this weekend into early next week with
continued dry weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1038 PM CST Tue Dec 17 2024

VFR continues as a cold front approaches from the north. Winds
will switch to the north behind the front (~08Z) with gusts
around 25 kts through the morning hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               41  57  31  67 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 38  57  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   50  64  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            41  59  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           38  51  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    36  56  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    38  57  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     42  58  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   43  58  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                     38  60  32  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 3 AM CST /2 AM MST/ to noon CST /11 AM
     MST/ Wednesday for Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains.

NM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...29