Hawaii, 2024High Surf in Hawaii, December 18, 2024
December 18, 2024 · NWS HFO · 1 event in 1 county or zone
A drowning occurred at Shark's Cove as 18 to 20 foot surf rolled in. A High Surf Warning was in effect for Oahu's North Shore.
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- 1
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
A drowning occurred at Shark's Cove as 18 to 20 foot surf rolled in. A High Surf Warning was in effect for Oahu's North Shore.
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Honolulu, HI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 18, 3:31 PM HST, 1 hour 29 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 18, 3:31 PM HST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
331 PM HST Wed Dec 18 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
Stable and relatively dry conditions will persist through most of
the forecast period, with the possible exception of a brief
uptick in windward showers tomorrow and again on Sunday night into
Monday as two successive fronts approach the area. Light winds in
advance of both of these fronts will result in a land and sea
breeze regime today and again this weekend, with afternoon clouds
and a potentially a few brief showers over interior and leeward
areas. Then trade winds will strengthen early next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Current radar and satellite imagery show clouds and a few showers
building up over island interiors due to sea breeze activity this
afternoon. Additional showers can be seen streaming across the
western end of the state due to increased moisture and low level
convergence ahead of an approaching cold front. Winds will remain
light across most of the island chain through tomorrow afternoon
as the front continues to slowly approach from the northwest,
disrupting the trade wind flow. This pattern will allow for the
development of land breezes overnight that will help to clear out
clouds and showers across land areas by morning, and sea breezes
during the day that will bring low clouds and a few showers to
island interiors by the afternoon.
Fairly dry and stable conditions will persist through the week
with minimal rainfall expected, despite a couple of fronts that
are expected to approach the area. The first front will dissipate
as it sags across the western end of the island chain tomorrow and
model guidance continues to keep this a rather dry front, with
only a slight uptick in showers expected across windward Kauai
and Oahu. Gentle to breezy northeast winds will briefly fill in
behind the dissipating front before winds weaken in response to the
next approaching front. As such light winds are expected across
the island chain through most of the weekend, allowing for a land
and sea breeze regime to redevelop. This second front will
approach the state Sunday night into Monday and possibly dissipate
over or just north of the area. Easterly trades winds will fill
in behind the front and strengthen through Tuesday as high
pressure builds to the north of the state and slides eastward.
Pockets of moisture will move in on the trades, but generally dry
and stable conditions will persist as ridging aloft dominates.
&&
.AVIATION...
Afternoon sea breezes give way to stable offshore land breezes
this evening through tonight. Deeper moisture approaching Kauai
will bring a modest uptick in shower coverage to western portions
of the state, but land areas are forecast to remain dry owing to
the established land breeze. The light gradient once again gives
way to sea breezes late Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon.
VFR prevails through the period.
No AIRMETs in effect.
&&
.MARINE...
A surface ridge will remain over or near the islands into Sunday,
maintaining mainly gentle and variable winds. The ridge will
remain parked over the central portion of the island chain into
Thursday morning, leading to gentle westerly winds around Kauai,
light and variables across Oahu and Maui County waters, and gentle
southeasterlies around the Big Island. A fast-moving and weak
surface high approaching from the northwest will produce gentle
north to northeast winds by tomorrow afternoon and will push a
shallow dissipating front near Kauai Thursday night. The high will
generate a very brief period of trade winds Friday, followed by
mainly gentle and variable winds as a trailing surface ridge moves
back over the islands Friday night through Sunday. Fresh trades
may redevelop Sunday night or Monday.
A series of large to extra large northwest to north-northwest
swells will continue through the weekend, peaking on Sunday. The
first swell has been holding around 12 ft at 17 seconds since
last night at NOAA buoy 51001 and has been at 9 to 10 ft at 17
seconds through much of the day at the Hanalei and Waimea Bay
PacIOOS buoys. A High Surf Warning (HSW) remains in place for
most north and west facing shores from Kauai to Maui and has been
extended through Friday. Given the direction of the swell (315 to
325 degrees) elevated surf is not expected along leeward portions
of the Big Island through tonight, though a High Surf Advisory
there will be needed as early as Thursday afternoon when a
potentially larger pulse arrives. A series of storm lows passing
northwest of Hawaii will send additional overlapping northwest
(320 to 330 degrees) swells that should keep surf near or above
HSW levels most of the time through the weekend, and the HSW will
likely be extended beyond its current expiration on Friday
afternoon. The latest guidance continues to show the largest swell
arriving on Sunday, with the ECMWF model advertising in excess of
18 feet. While winds will remain rather light through the
weekend, seas will be above the 10 foot Small Craft Advisory
threshold for waters exposed to the large swells.
Aside from areas exposed to wrapping northwest swell, surf along
east and south facing shores will remain small through much of the
week. The best chance for a small rise in southwest swell will be
on Thursday and Friday.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated through the
rest of the week due to a combination of light winds and relative
humidity (RH) values above 45 percent. Trades will strengthen
early next week, but RH will remain above critical levels to
continue to preclude critical fire weather conditions.
&&
.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Friday for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-
Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Maui Windward West-Kauai North-
Molokai Windward-Molokai North-Molokai West-Maui Central Valley
North-Windward Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Kauai Northwest
Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Channel-
Oahu Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-
Big Island Windward Waters.
&&
DISCUSSION...Farris
AVIATION...JVC
MARINE...Wroe
FIRE WEATHER...Farris
High Surf, Oahu North Shore
- When
- December 18, 5:00 PM HST
- Where
- Oahu North Shore forecast zone
- Deaths
- 1 direct, 0 indirect
- Reported by
- Broadcast Media
- Coordinates
- 21.455, -157.961 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)
A drowning occurred at Shark's Cove on the North Shore of Oahu as 18 to 20 foot surf rolled in. A High Surf Warning was in effect.
- High Surf
- Large waves breaking on the shore that caused damage, erosion or casualties.
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