Pulses of northerly swells moving across the local waters, along with fresh to locally strong easterly winds, promoted hazardous coastal conditions for the local islands. Exposed coastal areas, including Culebra, had a High Risk of Rip Currents due to breaking waves between 6 to 8 feet.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Pulses of northerly swells moving across the local waters, along with fresh to locally strong easterly winds, promoted hazardous coastal conditions for the local islands. Exposed coastal areas, including Culebra, had a High Risk of Rip Currents due to breaking waves between 6 to 8 feet. A rip current related death occurred in Culebra.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Dec 18, 4:40 AM AST, 10 hours 20 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
440 AM AST Wed Dec 18 2024
.KEY MESSAGES FOR TODAY...
- Small craft operators must stay alert for hazardous seas from
northeasterly swells and increasing winds.
- Beachgoers should avoid risky waters, particularly along
northern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands,
where rip currents will be especially dangerous.
- Flooding is possible, with localized impacts due to heavy
rain.
- Isolated thunderstorms may trigger lightning and gusty winds
today, creating hazardous conditions.
- Breezy to windy conditions will continue to affect coastal
areas and local islands, disrupting outdoor activities and
operations.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Over the next few days, the primary hazards will be focused on
life-threatening rip currents and hazardous marine conditions for
small craft, driven by northeasterly swells and strengthening
winds. These winds will bring breezy to locally windy conditions
to land areas. Elevated moisture levels and favorable conditions
will continue to support the risk of heavy rainfall and potential
flooding, with isolated thunderstorms also possible. As we move
into the weekend, wet and unstable conditions will return. This
unsettled weather is expected to last into early next week, with
Christmas Eve and Christmas Day likely to be especially rainy.
Stay informed on the latest updates for flooding, rip currents,
and other hazards through our social media channels and the
Experimental Graphical Hazard Weather Outlook:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=sju.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...
Overnight radar and satellite analysis showed rainy weather
conditions, with persistent showers and isolated thunderstorms
affecting northeastern Puerto Rico and less frequent showers
affecting other sections of eastern Puerto Rico and the local
islands. Surface observations recorded rainfall totals up to
three-quarters of an inch over the San Juan metropolitan area. At
the same time, radar estimates showed around two inches of rain
over portions of northern Carolina. Temperatures ranged from the
mid-60s in higher elevations to around 78 degrees across eastern
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Winds were generally
easterly at 10-15 knots along coastal areas and light and variable
further inland, with stronger gusts near showers.
A strengthening surface high pressure over the western Atlantic
tightens the local pressure gradient, resulting in breezy to
locally windy east-northeast winds of 15-25 knots across the
region. These winds will steer moisture associated with the
remnants of an old frontal boundary, with precipitable water
(PWAT) values peaking at 2.1 inches this morning. This setup will
sustain scattered to numerous showers across eastern Puerto Rico,
Vieques, Culebra, and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with periods of
moderate to heavy rainfall likely. Some showers will progress or
develop inland, affecting interior and southern Puerto Rico
throughout the day. Enhanced instability from the subequatorial
jet, positioned just north-northeast of the area, will support
isolated thunderstorms, particularly during peak moisture. While
the primary hazards include localized excessive rainfall, minor
flooding, and gusty winds, non-thunderstorm winds are also a
concern.
Breezy east-northeast winds will persist on Thursday as the high-
pressure system remains over the western Atlantic, with PWAT
values dipping to 1.8 inches early in the morning before
rebounding to 1.9 inches later in the day. Showers will remain
frequent, especially over eastern and northern areas, and isolated
thunderstorms may develop with support from lingering marginal
instability from the subequatorial jet. Thursday is expected to
have the highest rainfall impacts of the short-term period due to
sustained moisture convergence, with elevated risks for localized
flooding over eastern Puerto Rico. By Friday, the high will shift
eastward into the central Atlantic, weakening the pressure
gradient and reducing wind speeds to 10-15 knots while veering
from the east, while a weak ridge pattern develops aloft. A col
developing northwest of the region will result in a less organized
wind pattern. However, scattered showers will persist across
windward areas during the morning, with limited activity over
interior/western Puerto Rico in the afternoon. Although marginal
instability will persist, impacts will likely be less widespread
than Thursday.
Temperatures will gradually cool over the next few days, returning
to more seasonal levels in alignment with the prevailing wind and
rainfall patterns. For updates on excessive rainfall, winds, and
any other hazard risk in the coming days, please visit the
Experimental Graphical Hazard Weather Outlook at
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=sju.
.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...
The interaction of a surface low moving from the Western to
Northwestern Atlantic and a surface low developing across the
Central Atlantic will relax the local pressure gradient, weakening
the trade winds from Saturday through at least Monday. A frontal
boundary that model guidance shows moving eastward across the
western Atlantic will stall off to the northwest of the region,
which will induce a pre-frontal trough and pool of abundant
moisture over the Northeast Caribbean. Meanwhile, a polar trough
moving eastward from the Western to Central Atlantic at the upper
levels will weaken the ridge pattern aloft, promoting deep
moisture across the region. Under this weather pattern, we can
anticipate moderate to locally heavy rain each day, especially
across the windward locations early in the morning and overnight.
Global models indicate a moderate chance of observing a wet and
unstable weather pattern as additional moisture pools over the
region as the Nor'easter moves near Nova Scotia and Newfoundland
from Saturday to Monday. There is a slight to moderate chance of
thunderstorms developing during this period. The remnants of the
frontal boundary will then linger north of the region, increasing
the chance to observe a wet Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
SHRA/TSRA will likely bring brief periods of MVFR conditions
across most terminals over the next 24 hours, potentially
impacting operations. This will affect TJSJ and USVI terminals
throughout the entire period, while TJPS and TJBQ will see these
impacts mainly between 18/14-22Z. Winds will remain from the east
at 10-15 knots, with occasional higher gusts near SHRA/TSRA
activity.
&&
.MARINE...
A surface high pressure strengthening over the North Atlantic will
maintain fresh to locally strong easterly winds for the rest of
the workweek. Pulses of northeasterly swell will reach the local
Atlantic waters, extending the hazardous conditions for small
craft in the Atlantic waters and local Caribbean passages through
at least Friday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms will also
contribute to worsening marine conditions.
&&
.BEACH FORECAST...
Rough and hazardous seas, driven by northeasterly swells and fresh
to locally strong winds, will create life-threatening rip current
conditions for beachgoers along the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto
Rico's northern and northeastern-facing beaches. As additional
pulses of northeasterly swells move through the region, these
dangerous conditions persist through at least late Thursday and
may spread to other surf zone areas. For more details, please
consult the Coastal Hazard Message (CWFSJU) and the Surf Zone
Forecast (SRFSJU).
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for PRZ001-002-
005-008-012.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for VIZ001-002.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Friday for AMZ711-712-716-
723-741-742.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM AST Friday for AMZ726-733.
&&
SHORT TERM/AVIATION...ICP
LONG TERM....CAM/ICPPerspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorología San Juan PR 435 AM AST miércoles 18 de diciembre de 2024 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-191000- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior- Norte Central-Central Interior-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste- Oeste Interior-Mayagüez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques- Las aguas cercanas y fuera de la costa del Atlántico y del Caribe- 435 AM AST miércoles 18 de diciembre de 2024 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para sectores de Puerto Rico. .DÍA UNO...Hoy y Esta Noche .Rayos...Tormentas eléctricas aisladas son posibles. Esté atento a las tormentas eléctricas en su área y esté preparado para buscar refugio. .Lluvia Excesiva...Acumulación de agua en carreteras y áreas de pobre drenaje, particularmente en los sectores este y extremo oeste de Puerto Rico. Las inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos son posibles. .Viento...Condiciones de brisa fuerte a ventosas. Los artículos no asegurados o al aire libre podrían volar alrededor o dañarse. .Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 7 pies y vientos de vigorosos a localmente fuertes del este noreste a través de la mayoría de las aguas locales. Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequeñas. .Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables en la zona de olas rompientes, particularmente a través de la costa norte de Puerto Rico, desde Aguadilla hasta Fajardo, así como para Culebra. .DÍAS DOS A SIETE...jueves a martes Condiciones de brisa fuerte a ventosa y pulsos de marejadas del noreste mantendrán condiciones marítimas peligrosas durante los próximos días, con oleaje variando de 7 a 10 pies hasta el viernes. En consecuencia, las condiciones de corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida persistirán, con olas rompientes alcanzando de 6 a 8 pies. Inestabilidad marginal y los niveles de humedad sobre lo normal probablemente produzcan períodos de lluvias moderadas a fuertes, sosteniendo un riesgo de inundaciones de limitado a elevado hasta el final de la semana laboral. Un patrón de tiempo húmedo e inestable es también anticipado tarde este fin de semana hasta principios de la semana próxima. .COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN DE OBSERVADORES... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-191000- San Thomas San John e islas adyacentes-Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlántico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 435 AM AST miércoles 18 de diciembre de 2024 Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para sectores de las Islas Vírgenes Americanas. .DÍA UNO...Hoy y Esta Noche .Rayos...Tormentas eléctricas aisladas son posibles. Esté atento a las tormentas eléctricas en su área y esté preparado para buscar refugio. .Lluvia Excesiva...Acumulación de agua en carreteras y áreas pobremente drenadas. Las inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos son posibles. .Viento...Condiciones de brisa fuerte a ventosas. Los artículos no asegurados o al aire libre podrían volar alrededor o dañarse. .Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 7 pies y vientos de vigorosos a localmente fuertes del este noreste a través de la mayoría de las aguas locales. Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequeñas. .Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables en la zona de olas rompientes a través de todas las Islas Vírgenes Americanas. .DÍAS DOS A SIETE...jueves a martes Condiciones de brisa fuerte a ventosa y pulsos de marejadas del noreste mantendrán condiciones marítimas peligrosas durante los próximos días, con oleaje variando de 7 a 10 pies hasta el viernes. En consecuencia, las condiciones de corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida persistirán, con olas rompientes alcanzando de 6 a 8 pies. Inestabilidad marginal y los niveles de humedad sobre lo normal probablemente produzcan períodos de lluvias moderadas a fuertes, sosteniendo un riesgo de inundaciones de limitado a elevado hasta el final de la semana laboral. Un patrón de tiempo húmedo e inestable es también anticipado tarde este fin de semana hasta principios de la semana próxima. .COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN DE OBSERVADORES... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A 68-year-old man from Connecticut, a resident of Culebra, was last seen being dragged by a rip current at Flamenco Beach, Culebra. His body was found after two days.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Culebra | 2024-12-18 | 68 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, December 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1221988.