Heavy Snow and High Wind in Nevada, February 4 to 6, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
202 PM PST Sat Feb 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated showers in northern Nevada are expected to
diminish during the overnight with partial clearing. This could
lead to patchy freezing fog in the valleys. By Sunday, the next
in a series of systems will begin to spread light rain and snow
showers into western and central Nevada. Showers reach across all
of northern and central NV by Sunday afternoon and evening, with
heaviest snow across the higher terrain of Northern Nye county.
Periods of snow continue well into next week.

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.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night. Radar this afternoon
continues to show mainly isolated showers across northern Nevada.
These are expected to diminish later this evening. Partial
clearing will occur over the region and patchy freezing fog is
possible in the valleys. Overnight lows will be in the teens and
20s.

The weather turns interesting Sunday. A large and moist upper low
pressure system currently sits over the eastern Pacific. A strong
upper jet and deep moisture is expected to round the base of the
trough and spillover into central Nevada Sunday night. Before
that, clouds will increase during Sunday with increasing chances
for light precipitation in central Nevada. Winds will also be on
the increase during the afternoon with south winds of 20 to 30 mph
with gusts to 50 mph. Highs will be in the 30s and 40s. By late
Sunday afternoon and evening, snow levels are expected to be
around 6000 to 6500 feet in central Nevada. As such, winter
weather advisories have been issued below 6500 feet (northern Nye
and White Pine counties), below 6000 (southern Lander/Eureka
county) and winter storm warnings above 6000 to 6500 feet
(differing on location). In addition, northern Elko county (winter
weather advisory) and the Ruby Mountains (winter storm warning)
have been issued. In addition to the inclement weather, winds will
remain strong with speeds of 25 to 35 mph. The inclement weather
will spread east and north during the overnight with lows in the
20s and 30s. There exists some uncertainty with respect to the
snow level forecast for Sunday and Sunday night that will have
implications on the snow amount forecast. One degree of
temperature change aloft could result in a change of 500 to 1000
feet in snow level.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday

Active pattern continues with another strong upper low and
associated atmospheric river will push onshore over California.
Ample moisture and storm track favor decent spillover of moisture
over the Sierra’s with showers moving into central Nevada Monday
morning then spreading across the rest of northern Nevada Monday
afternoon and evening. Snow levels will remain tricky as
southwesterly flow ahead of the main trough draws warmer mid level
air. Models show that precipitation will start as snow during the
morning Monday before changing to rain for elevations below 6500
feet with the warm air advection. Rain and snow showers will
continue Tuesday, as the upper trough will slide closer to NV
allowing for snow levels to fall to around 5500 feet, once again
as cold air aloft filters into the region. Trough axis moves
overhead Wednesday morning and snow levels fall to the valley
floors, but by this time available moisture will be lacking
supporting only light flurries to the isolated shower.
Accumulations range generally from under an inch for the western
I-80 corridor with 1 to 6 inches for eastern half of the I-80
corridor. 1 to 10+ inches across the US-50 corridor will be
possible, with the summits seeing the highest totals. Much like
this last system, snow levels will be key, and elevations above
6500 feet, and the mountains could see up to 2 feet of snow.
Rainfall amounts for the lower elevations could see around
0.25"-0.75" QPF through Wednesday. It need to be noted that a
slight change in the timing and track of this system could change
the thermal profile by either cooling temperatures aloft quicker,
or keeping the warmer air around longer. Both possibilities would
have a significant impact on potential rain/snow accumulations
with this system. As if on cue, another upper system dropping
south out of the gulf of Alaska will be right on the heels of
Monday’s storm. This trough will approach the Silver state
Wednesday evening with the first showers affecting NV Thursday
morning. This system as of now doesn’t look as strong as the prior
system, but model uncertainty is much greater with this system
then the prior. A mix of lower elevation rain and mountain snow
will be possible beginning Thursday,and possibly lasting through
Saturday. Models agree that this will be a northern stream system,
and move it on shore over the Pacific NW Friday morning. After
that models disagree on the location track and strength of the
trough, with the GFS farther south and stronger and the EC weaker
and farther north leading to sizable differences in impacts.
Temperatures and Winds: Highs start warm in upper 30s to upper 40s
Monday cooling into the upper 20s to upper 30s Saturday. Lows
will also start warm for this time of the year, in the upper 20s
to upper 30s Monday morning cooling into the mid teens to mid 20s
by Saturday morning. Winds will be breezy to strong Monday and
Tuesday as the upper system moves through, with S to SW winds at
15 to 30 MPH with gusts up to 55 MPH possible. Winds weaken
Wednesday as the trough axis moves overhead with variable winds up
to 5 to 10 MPH. Thursday through Saturday winds will be out if
the West to southwest at speeds of 5 to 15 MPH with gusts up to 25
MPH possible.

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.AVIATION...VFR conditions will be the primary flight conditions
through Sunday. Unstable NW flow aloft will continue to bring a
20% to 40% probability of convective snow showers for KBAM, and
KEKO through this evening. Terminals may drop to MVFR to even IFR
levels for a short period should a shower impact a terminal.
Showers will dissipate quickly after sunset with the loss of
daytime heating. KWMC, KTPH and KELY look to remain dry today into
Sunday afternoon, but conditions will deteriorate for KTPH and
KWMC Sunday evening as the next upper system moves in from
California. Winds through Sunday will be light to breezy out of
the W to NW at speeds of 5 KT to 15 KT with gusts up to 25 KT
possible.

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.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 4 PM PST Tuesday
Northern Elko County.

Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM Sunday to 4 PM PST Tuesday Ruby
Mountains and East Humboldt Range.

Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 4 PM PST Tuesday above
6500 feet in Northeastern Nye County...Northwestern Nye County...
White Pine County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 4 PM PST Tuesday
below 6500 feet in Northeastern Nye County...Northwestern Nye
County...White Pine County.

Winter Storm Warning from 1 AM Sunday to 4 PM PST Tuesday above
6000 feet in Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM Sunday to 4 PM PST Tuesday
below 6000 feet in Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka
County.

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86/98/98