Texas, 2024

Wildfire in Texas, February 4, 2024

February 4, 2024 · NWS BRO · 1 event in 1 county or zone

The combination of warm temperatures, cured grasses and brush, strong winds gusting up to 40 mph, and humidity below 15 percent allowed a wildfire to spread rapidly during the mid to late afternoon of Sunday, February 4th, between Garceno and Escobares. The grass fire engulfed one home and threatened others, with short-fused evacuation orders for the neighborhood.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$150,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.

The combination of warm temperatures, cured grasses and brush, strong winds gusting up to 40 mph, and humidity below 15 percent allowed a wildfire to spread rapidly during the mid to late afternoon of Sunday, February 4th, between Garceno and Escobares. The grass fire engulfed one home and threatened others, with short-fused evacuation orders for the neighborhood.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 4, 12:08 PM CST, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 4, 12:08 PM CST, 2 hours 22 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1208 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

Key Messages:

...Elevated Fire Danger Today...
...Wind Gusts 40 to 50 mph Today...
...Marginal Fire Danger Early Monday RGV...

.Short term term(Now through Monday)...500mb low along the Red
River will be strengthening as drops into the NW Gulf today.
Ensemble and deterministic models show a 150+ knot jet streak
crossing over the Middle Texas coast on the south of the mid-level
with subsidence and downsloping winds drying out the atmosphere well
below regional normals. Wind and Fire along with Marine hazards are
in place for today with marine hazards persisting overnight and
Monday.

Short-term guidance shows high probability (80-100%) of wind gusts
over 40mph but 0% of greater than 50 mph.  Above normal temperatures
as much as 10 degrees to allow for 5-6Kft of mechanical mixing and
with winds at these levels near 50kts can not rule out a few gusts
around or just a skosh above the 50 mph mark during peak heating
Noon-4 PM. Mean layered sfc-300mb relative humidity levels plummet
below 20 percent which will combine with the strong surface winds
providing the needed elements for elevated to critical fire danger
for all areas. Wind Advisories are in place for all areas from 9AM-
6PM and the Red Flag Warning has been extended across the coastal
counties with the barrier Island (SPI) now under a Fire Danger
Statement. Otherwise, full sunshine with temperatures climbing into
the mid-upper 70s to lower 80s today.

Tonight and Monday winds abate but don't wane completely especially
near the coast and with the pressure gradient strengthening as
surface low deepens and broadens over the northern Gulf of Mexico.
HREF probabilities for wind gusts over 30 mph are 60-100% east of
the Zapata county from Midnight to at least 9-10 AM Monday. The
northerly winds will continue to maintain low dewpoints overnight
with low temperatures dropping into the upper 40s to lower 50s
degrees. Not expecting any temperatures below 45 degrees even with
clear skies and low dewpoints due to the elevated winds. Another
full sunshine day with slightly cooler high temperatures Monday winds
will be more from the north providing limited cold air advection and
eliminating any downslope subsidence element.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 338 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

The axis of an upper-level ridge will move overhead Tuesday with
strengthening high pressure at the surface. Broad subsidence from
this system will support dry and stable conditions through mid
week. Northerly surface winds Monday night will shift easterly
Tuesday and southeasterly Tuesday night as return flow sets up off
the Gulf. This will allow warmer temperatures and moisture to
return to the area for the later half of the week. By Thursday the
ridge will be moving into the southeastern US as it is replaced
by an upper level trough moving over the Rockies. This trough will
likely support the development of a surface low pressure system
over the Northern Plains on Thursday, with a cold front extending
down into West Texas.

Pressure gradients look to tighten Wednesday, likely producing
some gusty winds through the day. Cloud cover looks to begin
increasing Wednesday in response to the influx of low-level
moisture, becoming more concentrated Thursday and Friday as the
cold front approaches the region. Guidance is still showing the
cold front stalling to our north on Friday, before retreating
further north on Saturday. There may be enough forcing for some
rain to develop over the coastal waters, however rain chances look
to remain below 10% over land.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 PM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

Through 18z Monday....

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the entirety of the
18z TAF cycle. High pressure in place will yield dry and tranquil
weather conditions under SKC skies through the TAF period.

The only area of concern will be the winds. A tightening pressure
gradient developing over the region today will result in strong
northwesterly winds developing this afternoon and persisting into
tonight. Northwest winds will be sustained at 15-25 kts with higher
gusts at times of up to 30-40 kts. Later this evening and especially
tonight between 00z-15z, there is the potential for low level wind
shear (LLWS) as surface winds decrease some and winds 2,000 feet
AGL still remaining strong between 35-45 kts out of the north-
northwest.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 338 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

Today through Monday...Pressure gradient strengthens
today and again tonight as both an mid-level and surface low deepen
over the northern Gulf of Mexico.  Small Craft Advisory winds are
looking like a sure thing through Monday  morning with medium to
high chance (40-80%) of Gale conditions on the Laguna Madre for late
this morning and afternoon. A few gale force gusts are possible over
the Gulf waters. Gradient may slacken over the Laguna this evening
but remain tight through Monday over the Gulf. Can not rule out
another issuance of SCA on the Laguna later tonight and Monday
morning.

Monday night through Saturday...Winds and seas look to decrease
Monday night as the surface low pressure system moves further off
shore. As surface high pressure begin to take over on Tuesday,
winds will shift easterly then southeasterly remaining light to
moderate. Pressure gradients tighten Wednesday into Thursday
triggering stronger winds and building seas. Winds and seas look
to subside slightly through the remainder of the period.

Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed until around midnight
Monday night. Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed
Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 338 AM CST Sun Feb 4 2024

Wind and relative humidity elements are in place for a potential
dangerous mix today with elevated to widespread critical fire
danger today. The sparse and locally moderate rainfall last night
and the absence of drought conditions are the factors keeping
conditions below extreme category. Red Flag Warnings are in place
for all inland areas and have been expanded across the coastal
counties with a fire danger statement now for the barrier island
as well. Winds begin to increase mid to late morning with gusts
over 40 mph with relative humidity to crashing 20% after Noon.
Fire danger conditions may extend beyond 6 PM with medium (40-
70%) probabilities of seeing widespread Red Flag lingering until 8
PM. Limited RH recovery and continued gusty winds tonight and
Monday morning may maintain localized elevated fire danger.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             79  54  70  49 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               80  49  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 82  52  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         81  51  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      73  56  64  56 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     77  51  68  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ248>255-351-
     353>355.

     Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ248>255-351-
     353>355-451-454-455.

GM...Gale Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CST Monday for GMZ150-155-170-
     175.

&&

SHORT TERM...59-GB
LONG TERM....60-BE
AVIATION...23-Evbuoma

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.

Wildfire, Starr

When
February 4, 2:30 PM CST to 8:30 PM CST
Where
Starr forecast zone
Property damage
$150,000
Reported by
Broadcast Media
Coordinates
26.562, -98.738 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A grass/brush fire of unknown causes began during the mid-afternoon February 4th along Old Highway 83 (south of US 83) west of FM 649 on the east side of Escobares, and spread rapidly southeast along Old 83 into Garceno, eventually covering 80 acres before more than 60 firefighters from multiple local, state, and federal agencies contained and controlled the blaze in the early evening. The wildfire destroyed one single-family home, a Utility Terrain Vehicle, and a trailer.

The wildfire occurred on a Red Flag day, with a combination of winds from the northwest gusting over 40 mph, relative humidity falling to or just below 15 percent, freeze-cured grasses and brush, and warm temperatures (around 80 degrees) . It took nearly six hours to control, then contain, the wildfire - but embers continued to burn in dry conditions into February 5th.

What these are

Wildfire
A fire burning in wildland vegetation, with its acreage and damage where known.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Texas in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2024

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1151572.