A cyclone bombed very close to the central California coast developing widespread damaging wind gusts across Mendocino and Lake counties. Heavy rain also was observed with some of the highest flows on creeks in Lake County in the last several years.
Every event with a place to put it; 7 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EKA wrote it up.
A cyclone bombed very close to the central California coast developing widespread damaging wind gusts across Mendocino and Lake counties. Heavy rain also was observed with some of the highest flows on creeks in Lake County in the last several years. The low then moved north off of the extreme northwestern California coast bringing strong gusts into Humboldt and Del Norte counties as well, though damage was limited.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Eureka, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 3, 3:32 PM PST, 9 hours 28 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
332 PM PST Sat Feb 3 2024
.SYNOPSIS...Another powerful storm will bring strong gusty winds
and moderate to heavy rainfall with high elevation heavy snowfall
to Northwest California on Sunday. Wet and unsettled weather will
continue into Monday, and then ease up by Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Another potent atmospheric river storm system
centered several hundred miles SW of Cape Mendocino outside
130W this afternoon will impact northwestern California with
strong winds and moderate to heavy precipitation late tonight
and into the day on Sunday. A warm front south of 35N and well
inside 130W will advance northeastward tonight. Moderate to
locally heavy overrunning precipitation is forecast to begin late
tonight across southern Mendocino and Lake Counties. High
resolution ensemble guidance continues to indicate mean snow
amounts of 4-6 inches per 6 hours from 10PM Saturday to 10AM
Sunday in southern Lake county, particularly above about 3000
feet. This will impact travel on highway 175 and a winter storm
warning has been hoisted. There are indications that snow
levels, based on the deterministic GFS and NAM (and BUFKIT
profiles) may start out near 2000 feet early Sunday morning in
Lake County as drier low level easterly flow ramps up. NBM snow
levels are usually too high in these overrunning set-ups. How much
snow and how quickly snow levels rise is not certain. BUFKIT
deterministic profiles indicate levels rising by late morning over
Lake county and for now will go with that until observational
data indicates otherwise. The snow will not last long and probably
melt quickly with warm air advection pushing levels up above 4000
feet by late morning.
A very similar set-up will exist in eastern-northeastern Trinty
County where low elevation snowfall (2000-3000ft) will probably
last longer before the warm air eventually mixes down and levels
rise above 3000-3500 feet Sunday afternoon and evening. Once
again, sided with the deterministic guidance for snow levels.
Additional support for deviating from NBM guidance is the high
resolution mesoscale ensemble guidance with 6 hourly means around
8 inches and 25th-75th spreads around 2 inches.
In addition to the heavy snow, strong and potentially damaging
wind gusts (~60 mph) are expected for Mendocino coastal areas as
ESE 925mb winds crank up to 50-60kt around the northern semi-
circle of the surface low which will edge toward Pt Arena by 18Z
Sunday. High resolution ensemble guidance indicates lower
probabilities for gusts to 50 mph for the higher elevations
(ridges) of southern Humbodlt. Strong winds are not completely out
of the question for Humboldt if the barotropic low track
northward. Consensus from the various models is for the low to
fill. A compact mesoscale circulation (per the HRRR) will still be
capable of strong wind gust >40 mph for Humboldt. Considerable
uncertainty remains with large spreads in the guidance and
inconsistencies in the models. Stay to tuned to the latest
forecast for updates, especially if planning to be on the water or
on Humboldt Bay.
Lastly, there is a concern for minor flooding in southern
Mendocino and southern Lake Counties on Sunday with this
latest surge of subtropical moisture (PWATS > 1 inch). The
highest influx of moist air intersecting the coastal terrain is
forecast to be highest south Pt Arena. 12Z global models and high
resolution mesoscale models have trended wetter and a bit further
north with first wave of moderate to heavy rain on Sunday. HREF 6
hourly probabilities for greater than 1 inch in 6 hours is
90-100% for Lake and SE-E Mendocino Counties. 2-4 inches of rain
in 12-18 hours are likely as the warm front lifts northward and
925-850mb winds shift to S-SW (at least on some of the models).
Also, with snow levels initially low (2000-3000 feet) in Lake
County, all the precipitation in the watershed may not fall as
rain. Considering we are in WPC's slight risk (15% chance) for
execessive rain and the CNRFC continues to indicate sharp rises on
rivers, streams and creeks in southern Mendocino and southern
Lake Counties, we will continue with the flood watch. Chances for
flooding are lower compared to the last atmospheric river storm.
For more on this see the hydrology section below.
The upper trough complex will remain over the area on Monday for
continued wet and unsettled weather. Drier conditions are forecast
for Tue with minimal chances (10-20%) for precipitation.
Additional transient shortwave troughs in cooler NW flow will
probably bring episodes of light to moderate precipitation mid to
late week. Potential for a colder system and low elevation snow
increases toward the end of the week. There is considerable
spread and variance with rain and snow amounts at the moment.
Overall it looks cooler and calmer for much of next week. DB
&&
.AVIATION...Aside from dense valley fog this morning along the
Russian River Valley, generally unstable conditions paired with
building offshore flow has allowed for clearing skies and VFR
conditions to prevail. A storm system moving up the coast will
begin to impact Mendocino and Lake COunties early sunday morning.
This system will first bring low level windshear and gusty surface
winds near UKI, followed by rain showers and inconsistent MVFR to
IFR conditions through Sunday. Further north, terminals will
start to experience some gusty offshore wind, but generally VFR
conditions until showers arrive after sunrise. /JHW
&&
.MARINE...A decaying mid period westerly swell around 12 feet has
continued to control the seas state today. Currently gentle winds
have also begun to turn southeast ahead of an approaching storm
system.
Southeast winds will rapidly increase in the southern waters
overnight as the storm zips north along the California Coast. This
storm will bring a narrow but potent band of gale force winds
impacting the southern waters through the day Sunday. A southerly
swell will travel with the storm brining mid period seas in excess
of 12 feet. The northern waters will remain calmer though still
elevated Sunday.
Very significant uncertainty remains in the forecast Sunday into
Monday, especially for the northern waters. Some high resolution
models including the HRRR and CANSAC show the storm continuing
north, brining gale force gusts to the northern waters early Monday.
Most other models, however, do not support this with the low
stalling or weakening off of Cape Mendocino. The possible need for a
Gale Warning will need to watched closely for the northern waters
late Sunday.
In either case, the wake of the storm system will leave an
exceptionally confused sea state early next week with both mid
period northerly and southerly swells crashing together Monday
combined with chaotic short period seas. Surprisingly, there is broad
model agreement on generally calmer conditions by mid next week with
moderate northwest wind and a series of mid period northwest swells.
/JHW
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Rapid rises on rivers, streams and creeks in
response to moderate to heavy rainfall rates are forecast for
southern Mendocino and southern Lake Counties on Sunday. In
particular, Scotts Creek may flood portions of Scotts Valley road
and the Russian River at Hopland may reach flood stage of 15 feet
causing minor flooding of highway 175. The threat for rock falls
and landslides will also increase.
&&
.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
for CAZ107-108.
High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 7 PM PST Sunday for CAZ109.
Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 7 PM PST Sunday for CAZ110>115.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 4 PM PST
Sunday for CAZ111-114.
Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening
for CAZ112-113-115.
Winter Storm Warning from midnight tonight to 10 AM PST
Sunday for CAZ115.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Monday for PZZ450-470.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PST Sunday for PZZ455-475.
Gale Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM PST Monday for PZZ455-
475.
&&
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For forecast zone information
see the forecast zone map online:
https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.pngThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 high wind, 5 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
High Glade Lookout reported wind gusts in excess of warning level for several hours with a peak wind gust of 90 mph.
PG&E weather stations reported gusts between 50 and 70 mph throughout the northern reaches of Clear Lake including in the towns of Nice and Lucerne, the Robinson Rancheria, and south toward Mt. Konocti. Numerous trees were downed and power was out to thousands of people across the region. Additional strong winds combined with snow led to long duration power outages around Cobb.
Wind gusts between 45 and 61 mph occurred along the Mendocino County coast through much of the day on February 4th. The entire Mendocino coast was without power during the height of the storm with highways 1, 20, and 128 all closed at some time because of downed trees.
Wind gusts between 50 and 68 mph were measured in the hills surrounding Hopland to Ukiah and surrounding communities. Numerous power outages were reported caused by downed trees. Ukiah only remained powered because of backup power generators.
Measured wind gust to 67 mph at the Kneeland RAWS and other gusts in excess of 60 mph across southern Humboldt County.
Numerous wind gusts between 60 and 70 mph were experienced in the hills and valley locations near Boonville and Yorkville in Mendocino County. Widespread power outages occurred with many trees downed.
Scott's Valley Road flooded following heavy rain of 3-5 inches across the county. The road may have flooded longer than described here due to poor drainage.
PG&E and RAWS stations in southwestern Humboldt reported wind gusts between 60 and 82 mph overnight.
The Russian River at Hopland exceeded flood stage and flooded Highway 175 near Hopland causing the road to be closed.
PG&E weather station on Cahto Peak reported a peak wind gust of 76 mph. Numerous other stations reported wind gusts between 40 and 50 mph with widespread power outages occurring across the region.
The Navarro River exceeded flood stage and closed Highway 128.
Highway 36 closed due to flooding near Carlotta.
Hookton Slough offramp of Highway 101 closed due to flooding. Up to 2 feet of water reported on the roadway.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in California in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in California, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1151161, 1151162, 1151167, 1151168, 1151453, 1151166, 1151164, 1151452, 1151456, 1151169, 1151468, 1151458, 1151461.