Heavy Snow and High Wind in Nevada, February 26 to 27, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
738 AM PST Mon Feb 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An incoming low pressure system will impact northern
and central Nevada today into Tuesday, bringing precipitation and
strong gusty winds. Dry conditions expected midweek before
another round of precipitation and winds arrive Friday through the
weekend.

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.UPDATE...Refreshed grids for the morning hours to account for
current trends. No other updates planned.

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.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 403 AM PST Mon Feb 26 2024/

SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday night.

A strong low pressure system with an attendant cold front is
approaching from the Pacific Northwest. The cold front is expected
to move into the forecast area today, spreading rain/snow mix and
snow across northern and central Nevada. Light valley rain and
mountain snow will be present across the state with snow levels
starting above 6500 feet. Snowfall amounts of 5-10 inches above
6500 feet and 1-4 inches below 6500 feet are expected across
Northern Elko County. The Ruby Mountains and East Humboldt Range
could see 12-20 inches of snow. Strong winds with gusts as high
as 60-70 mph will be situated at the higher elevations and
mountain peaks, leading to blowing/drifting snow and reduced
visibility.

Snow levels are expected to drop quickly to valley floors this
evening, allowing some light snow accumulation to occur. The
valley floors for the rest of northern NV and central Nevada are
forecast to receive 2-4 inches. West- southwest winds of 30-40 mph
with gusts up to 60 mph expected across Humboldt, Northern
Lander, and Northern Eureka Counties. Multiple winter weather and
wind headlines have been issued for this significant weather
event.

The storm system exits the forecast region late tonight, but some
lingering snow showers may exist early Tuesday morning in valleys
of Elko, Eureka, and White Pine Counties. Otherwise, dry
conditions for the rest of the day Tuesday along with breezy
northwest winds across the state. Highs today will lower into the
30s to 40s in northern NV and 40s to 50s in central NV. In the
wake of the cold front, highs Tuesday afternoon will be in the
upper 20s to mid 30s. A dry, northwest flow will bring overnight
temperatures into the teens to single digits under mostly clear
skies.

LONG TERM...Wednesday through Next Monday.

Wednesday, a brief break in active weather is forecasted under
zonal flow. This will allow for light winds, dry condtions and
highs in the 40s to low 50s.

The next incoming system will start to impact Nevada Thursday,
with the leading edge of a long-wave trough starting to move into
the area. The leading edge of this system will see strong
southwest winds move into the state during the day. Strongest
winds look to be across HUmboldt, Lander and Northern Elko
counties with 25-30 mph winds and gusts to 45-50 mph. Winnemucca
Airport currently has a 68% chance of seeing wind gusts to 45 mph.
As far as precipitation is concerned, a mix of rain and snow
showers are possible Thursday, with light snow amounts towards the
state boarder. Lows Thursday night dip into the 30s for most.
Friday, Highs are forecasted in the 40s and 50s for most.

An embedded shortwave on Friday will bring a mix or rain and snow
showers as snow levels look to remain elevated through the day.
Winds will be breezy, but lighter than Thursday. As snow levels
lower late Friday evening, snow showers will spread across much of
the area. Mountains will pick up around a foot of snow with
valleys generally seeing 1-3 inches heading overnight into
Saturday. Lows are forecasted in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Saturday the trough axis is forecasted to be over the state,
extending into central and southern Nevada. The trough axis over
the state allows for the coldest air and most persistent
precipitation to occur over the area. Winds will be elevated
across White Pine county, where Ely airport currently has a 86%
chance of seeing winds gusting to 45 mph during the afternoon.
Snow levels will be below 4500 feet for the entirety of the day.
Highs are forecasted in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Snowfall
Saturday could be significant for both valleys and mountains
across the I-80, US-93, US-50 and US-6 corridors. QPF (liquid)
could range from 0.30"-0.50" in some valley locations. With snow
levels below 4500 feet for the day, snowfall may add up. Lows
Saturday night may be chilly in the single digits to low teens for
most.

Sunday, the trough begins to shift east and move out of the area.
There will still be some lingering snow showers across the state,
but only minor accumulations (under a half an inch) expected at
this time in valleys. Highs are forecasted in the upper 20s to
lower 30s for most.

Monday, a brief ridge builds in leading to quiet and dry
condtions. Highs likely in the 30s and 40s.

AVIATION...Southwesterly winds become gusty this morning, then
strengthen through the afternoon hours. Rain showers will be hit
and miss at KWMC, KBAM, and KEKO in the early afternoon hours,
with -SHRA expected at all TAF sites (except KTPH) by the
late afternoon. The cold front associated with the approaching
storm will drop through the northern NV and into central NV this
evening, at which time rain showers will transition over to snow.
VFR conditions are expected through this afternoon with the rain,
however IFR or lower conditions are likely this evening as snow
showers develop. Winds diminish post-frontal this evening, with
snow showers tapering off overnight.

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.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
High Wind Warning until 7 PM PST this evening Humboldt County...
Northern Lander County and Northern Eureka County.

Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening Northern Elko
County.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening Southeastern Elko
County.

Blizzard Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday Ruby Mountains and East
Humboldt Range.

Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST
Tuesday Southern Lander County and Southern Eureka County...
White Pine County.

Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening Southern Lander
County and Southern Eureka County.

Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening South
Central Elko County...Southwest Elko County.

Wind Advisory until 1 AM PST Tuesday Northwestern Nye County.

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