A two-fold event impacted eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota late February. The first prong of the event brought mixed precipitation and some snow, the second brought mesoscale forced snow and wind, with some locations getting up to almost a foot of snow and blizzard conditions.
Every event with a place to put it; 12 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FGF wrote it up.
A two-fold event impacted eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota late February. The first prong of the event brought mixed precipitation and some snow, the second brought mesoscale forced snow and wind, with some locations getting up to almost a foot of snow and blizzard conditions.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 26, 3:11 AM CST, 1 hour 49 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
311 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- There is a 40 percent chance for minor travel impacts early
this morning near the international border from light snow
and near the Highway 2 corridor from a light glaze of ice.
This may impact the Monday morning commute, but will quickly
be improved by warming temperatures.
- Winter impacts are expected tonight through at least midday
Tuesday. Moderate to high snowfall rates and wind gusts up to
45 mph are expected. There is at least a 60 percent chance for
blizzard conditions for portions of the Red River Valley into
eastern North Dakota Tuesday.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024
Initial round of precipitation with the warm air advection is
pushing into our counties, with most of the sites along the
international border reporting snow. Returns down by Fargo do
not appear to be reaching the ground. Snow just started at Grand
Forks. Devils Lake airport was reporting UP, but webcams showed
RA (FZRA based on temps). Impacts are unknown given ND DOT has
not updated their webpage since 9:30 PM. That being said,
temperatures behind the precipitation band quickly climb into
the mid 30s. Winter impacts will quickly be mitigated by the
warming temps, especially after sunrise. Given this, will expand
the SPS a bit further south to include portions of the Highway
2 corridor, but at this point think further headlines are not
needed. The precipitation will push quickly east and will be out
of the CWA shortly after 12Z anyway.
Warm tongue remains over the CWA throughout the day and with at
least some sunshine, we should get again to near record highs in
the 50s and even low 60s in the southern RRV. This will quickly
come to an end tonight as a northern branch shortwave approaches
western ND and pushes a cold front down into the Northern
Plains. The strong front will drop temps rapidly down into the
20s behind it, and there will be very strong frontogenesis along
with the synoptic lift from the approaching shortwave. The HRRR
tries to break out some precip a little sooner along the frontal
passage, but seems to be an outlier in the ensemble. Most of the
members bring snow as the mid level baroclinic zone arrives
after midnight. There has been a slight trend to the south with
the HREF, but several of the larger scale ensembles still keep
the heavier snow band north over Grand Forks. And with mesoscale
banding, exact placement is low confidence anyway.
Higher confidence as it always is, is the wind. Strong cold air
advection with the system, northerly direction favorable for the
Red River Valley, along with a good pressure gradient and
pressure fall/rise couplet. The 925mb winds to mix down are not
huge, around 35 kts, but winds around around 40 kts just above
that and could be achievable by Tuesday morning according to
bufkit soundings. Probabilities for blowing snow still look very
high, although again much will depend on how much snow is
falling. Still not super confident on where the heavy band will
set up so will keep the watch going, and extend a bit further
west to include Griggs and Barnes for some high probabilities of
blowing snow in the northeastern portions of those counties.
Wednesday into Sunday...Northwesterly flow gives way to weak
ridging then southwesterly flow by the weekend. Temperatures
will quickly rise back up to above climo values, although will
be tempered by any snow we get. There is some signal for a more
active pattern next weekend with the southwesterly flow and a
deep trough just to our west that will be coming out towards the
beginning of week 2, but confidence is low on any specifics.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1132 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024
MVFR ceilings are beginning to spread into northeast ND and
should impact KDVL, KGFK, and KTVF as a wintry mix moves through
the region during the early morning hours Monday (lower chances
for impacts at other terminals in eastern ND and northwest MN).
VFR conditions eventually prevail Monday morning and last into
the early evening before additional low stratus and eventually
snow and blowing snow develop late Monday evening (increasing
chances for LIFR conditions after the current TAF period).
Low level wind shear develops early this morning form the south
(35-45kt) due to a low level jet in the 8-14Z period. Winds
eventually become gusty from the southeast early in the TAF
period, shifting to the south, southwest, and eventually
northwest as low pressure progresses across the region Monday
followed by a cold front late Monday afternoon in the evening.
&&
.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon
for NDZ027>030-038-039.
MN...Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Tuesday afternoon
for MNZ001>003.
&&
DISCUSSION...JR
AVIATION...DJRHazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1009 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 MNZ004>008-NDZ006>008-014>016-054-270415- Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall-East Marshall- Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson-Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Western Walsh- 1009 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight 20-40% chance for greater than 0.01" of ice accumulation tonight leading to slick roads. Less than an inch of snow with this wintry mix. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Widespread snowfall of 1 to 4 inches and strong winds over 30 mph may lead to areas of blowing snow especially in the Red River Valley where blizzard like conditions are possible Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Reports of snow, ice, visibility, and poor road conditions are appreciated. MNZ001>003-009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ024-026>030-038-039- 049-052-053-270415- West Polk-Norman-Clay-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake- East Polk-North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Mahnomen- South Clearwater-Hubbard-West Becker-East Becker-Wilkin- West Otter Tail-East Otter Tail-Wadena-Grant-Eddy-Nelson- Grand Forks-Griggs-Steele-Traill-Barnes-Cass-Ransom-Sargent- Richland- 1009 PM CST Sun Feb 25 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of eastern North Dakota, west central and northwest Minnesota. .DAY ONE...Tonight The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday Widespread snowfall of 1 to 4 inches and strong winds over 30 mph may lead to areas of blowing snow especially in the Red River Valley where blizzard like conditions are possible Tuesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Reports of snow, ice, visibility, and poor road conditions are appreciated.
Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 326 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 MNZ001-004>009-013>017-NDZ006>008-014>016-026-027-054-261530- West Polk-Kittson-Roseau-Lake Of The Woods-West Marshall- East Marshall-North Beltrami-Pennington-Red Lake-East Polk- North Clearwater-South Beltrami-Towner-Cavalier-Pembina-Benson- Ramsey-Eastern Walsh-Nelson-Grand Forks-Western Walsh- Including the cities of Crookston, East Grand Forks, Hallock, Karlstad, Lancaster, Casperson, Fox, Hayes Lake State Park, Malung, Pencer, Roseau, Salol, Baudette, Radium, Warren, Englund, Florian, Stephen, Argyle, Newfolden, Middle River, Espelie, Gatzke, Grygla, Rosewood, Red Lake, Redby, Ponemah, Dakota Junction, Thief River Falls, Red Lake Falls, Fosston, Fertile, McIntosh, Erskine, Bagley, Clearbrook, Bemidji, Lavinia, Rosby, Cando, Considine, Dresden, Langdon, Maida, Mount Carmel, Vang, Akra, Backoo, Cavalier, Leroy, Walhalla, Bowesmont, Drayton, Fort Totten, Maddock, Leeds, Minnewaukan, Devils Lake, Grafton, Nash, Oakwood, Park River, Lakota, Mcville, Aneta, Tolna, Grand Forks, Adams, Lankin, and Fairdale 326 AM CST Mon Feb 26 2024 ...LIGHT MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY AFFECT AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS MORNING... Light ice accumulations of around 0.01" may lead to slippery roads. Snowfall totals up to an inch are expected. If you plan on traveling early this morning before 8 AM, allow extra time to reach your destination. Don't use cruise control. Be especially careful around stop lights, school bus stops, and intersections. Check road conditions... By Phone: call 511 Website for North Dakota: travel.dot.nd.gov Website for Minnesota: 511mn.org
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
8 heavy snow, 4 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.
Public reports 7 inches of storm total snow in Dorothy.
Public reports 7 inches of storm total snow in Ada.
Public reports 6 inches of storm total snow in Gully.
Warroad 4 W COOP Observer reports 6.7 inches of storm total snowfall.
Public reports 8 inches of storm total snow in Angle Inlet.
Blizzard conditions of 1/4SM visibility or less and wind gusts of 35 MPH or more began around 5:55 AM, ongoing at time of report.
Blizzard conditions of 1/4SM visibility or less and wind gusts of 35 MPH or more began around 6:15 AM, ongoing at time of report.
CoCoRaHS 2.5 SSW of Mentor reports 6 inches of storm total snow.
Public reports 6 inches of storm total snow in Halstad.
Blizzard conditions of 1/4SM visibility or less and wind gusts of 35 MPH or more began around 3AM and persisted until around 5PM at the Donaldson and Warren DOT sites. Peak winds were 45 MPH and 49 MPH.
Public reports 7 inches of storm total snow 2 N Roosevelt.
Blizzard conditions of 1/4SM visibility or less and wind gusts of 35 MPH or more began around 4AM and persisted until around 4PM at the Halstad DOT site. Peak winds were 47mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Minnesota in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Minnesota, February 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1163857, 1163858, 1163859, 1163863, 1163865, 1163854, 1163856, 1163860, 1163862, 1165204, 1163864, 1165202.