Drought carried over into November from October due to continued precipitation deficits.
Every event with a place to put it; 10 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EAX wrote it up.
Drought carried over into November from October due to continued precipitation deficits.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 31, 9:46 PM CST, 2 hours 14 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 1046 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 ...Updated 06z Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - A quiet but chilly evening is in store for those trick-or- treating. - Multiple rounds of showers and storms are expected Saturday through Monday. By Monday night, a widespread 2 to 5 inches of rainfall is forecast across the region, with locally higher amounts possible for areas south of Interstate 70. - Locally excessive rainfall and flooding are possible by Sunday and Sunday night, with the WPC issuing a slight risk for much of the area for this period. The severe weather risk increases by Monday, especially for southern parts of the forecast area. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 After a stormy night, conditions are a lot quieter this afternoon, but considerably colder than we have seen in quite some time. We will end up with highs below average for a change (rather than having lows above our average high)! Tonight will be chilly, with lows in the 30s and low 40s. Make sure the trick-or-treaters have some jackets or coats available, as temperatures this evening will be falling through the 40s. Fortunately, winds will be light. The upper-air pattern will feature predominant west-southwest flow with multiple perturbations ejecting from the western U.S. Eventually, a deeper trough will dig into the Desert Southwest this weekend, amplifying ridging downstream in the Southeast. This is a very favorable setup for a wet pattern in the central U.S., and with the wide-open Gulf and multiple perturbations continuing to eject northeastward to the lee of the Rockies, we will encounter an abrupt end to the very long dry period we have seen early this fall. In general, the models are consistent in showing a frequency of shortwave progression through the central U.S. of about one per day. The timing of these vorticity maxima vary model to model (and even ensemble to ensemble), but the end result is a wet period no matter how you prognose it. After a quiet Friday, the first in the series of perturbations approaches the region on Saturday. PoPs steadily increase late Friday night into Saturday from southwest to northeast. Would not be surprising to see areas near Kirksville mostly dry for a good chunk of the day, but everyone should receive precipitation by Saturday evening. This precipitation will largely be driven by isentropic ascent, though meager (elevated) instability will exist. The end result should be mostly beneficial rainfall with local/embedded heavier precipitation with any stronger convective cores. Models have trended farther south with the heaviest totals, in closer proximity to the track of the vort max and increased instability (i.e., far southeast Kansas and central/eastern Oklahoma). The next vort max approaches the region on Sunday. The evolving pattern is a little more favorable for impactful rainfall, as the upstream trough becomes highly amplified. The south-to-north downstream flow will provide increasing instability to the region with time (via favorable warm/moist advection and cooling from large-scale lift aloft). Additionally, initiating convection will develop largely parallel to the upper flow, suggesting precipitation may linger in the same areas for long durations. With potential for training convection amid strong synoptic forcing in a favorably/unseasonably moist environment (e.g., PWs 1.5+ in.), the excessive rainfall threat does seem higher for Sunday/Sunday night, especially in our far southern CWA (which is, again, closer to the currently-projected track of the vort max). The WPC has a slight risk for the Sunday/Sunday night period. Fortunately, the antecedent drought means that our area can withstand more rainfall than usual for flooding to become problematic. It will bear watching, however, to see how rainfall transpires Saturday/Saturday night, as that will likely dictate how soils will respond Sunday and Monday. Depending on how far the trough progresses downstream on Monday, the region could face a third round of widespread rainfall. By this point, however, increased progression of the trough (and closer proximity to its forcing) may lead to a day with an increased threat of severe weather versus heavy rainfall. Ensemble guidance exhibits high probabilities (> 50 percent) of favorable CAPE/shear overlap on Monday afternoon in our southern CWA especially, with pattern recognition suggesting a synoptically evident setup for widespread severe-weather potential in the central/southern Plains. By Tuesday, the deep trough approaching the region pivots rapidly northeastward into the Great Lakes region. This should lead to drier weather for the midweek period (and also considerably cooler). By that time, we will probably be hoping for dry weather, which seems hard to believe given what we have seen the past couple of months. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 Mostly clear skies expected overnight and into Friday afternoon. Winds generally less than 10 kts Friday afternoon. STJ may see some visibility reduction with calm winds and clear skies, though current models still do not show a signal for it. For now, will place MVFR visibility in there, and will monitor any potential fog trends on satellite imagery. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && DISCUSSION...CMS AVIATION...Krull
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 409 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040- 043>046-053-054-010915- Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS- Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler- Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton- Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton- Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis- Cooper-Bates-Henry- 409 AM CDT Thu Oct 31 2024 This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Several rounds of rainfall are expected Saturday through Tuesday. While severe weather is not anticipated, heavy rainfall is possible. More detailed information can be accessed at... https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
10 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
D2 drought carried over from October in Buchanan County, but drought improved to better than D2 with the Nov 5th issuance of the drought monitor.
D2 drought carried over from October in Atchison County, but drought improved to better than D2 with the Nov 5th issuance of the drought monitor.
D2 drought carried over from October in Platte County, but drought improved to better than D2 with the Nov 5th issuance of the drought monitor.
D2 drought carried over from October in Clay County, but drought improved to better than D2 with the Nov 5th issuance of the drought monitor.
D2 drought carried over from October in Jackson County, but drought improved to better than D2 with the Nov 5th issuance of the drought monitor.
D2 drought carried over from October in Pettis County, but drought improved to better than D2 with the Nov 5th issuance of the drought monitor.
D2 drought carried over from October in Pettis County, but drought improved to better than D2 with the Nov 5th issuance of the drought monitor.
D2 drought carried over from October in Pettis County, but drought improved to better than D2 with the Nov 5th issuance of the drought monitor.
D2 drought carried over from October in Pettis County, but drought improved to better than D2 with the Nov 5th issuance of the drought monitor.
D2 drought carried over from October in Pettis County, but drought improved to better than D2 with the Nov 5th issuance of the drought monitor.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Missouri in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Missouri, November 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1225010, 1225011, 1225014, 1225015, 1225016, 1225017, 1225018, 1225019, 1225020, 1225021.