Strong Wind in California, November 3, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
305 AM PST Sun Nov 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and windy weather through midweek. Strong, gusty northerly
winds develop on Sunday continuing into Monday. Elevated fire
weather conditions on Wednesday as gusty north winds return
alongside lowered humidity.

.DISCUSSION...

Key Points:
- Strong, gusty northerly winds develop this morning continuing
  into Monday. Strongest gusts will occur during the morning hours
  roughly between 8 AM-12 PM PST.
- A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Delta and adjacent western
  side of the Central Valley from 7 AM PST today until 10 AM PST
  Monday.
- Elevated fire weather conditions on Wednesday as gusty north
  winds return alongside drier fuels and lowered relative
  humidity.

High pressure ridging over the Pacific Northwest and a low
pressure system over the Great Basin will generate gusty northerly
flow across the Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valley I-5
corridor and the Delta today and tomorrow. Valley wind gusts are
forecasted to be 25-40 mph, with gusts up to 45 mph in the Delta.
NBM probabilities have a 50-90% chance of gusts exceeding 40 MPH
for the far western Central Valley through the Delta on Sunday,
with probabilities around 30-60% on Monday for the same locations.
Winds will peak in intensity during the morning hours today and
Monday (roughly between 8 AM-12 PM), but will still be breezy in
between these periods. As a result, a Wind Advisory will be in
effect from 7 AM PST today until 10 AM PST on Monday. The strong
north-to-south pressure gradient created by this upper- level
pattern, will additionally bring 20 to 35 mph downslope gusts to
the Sierra. Valley north winds will still be gusty on Tuesday,
although not as strong as before, with 15 to 25 mph gusts. No
elevated fire weather conditions are expected to accompany these
early week winds (today-Tues). This is principally due to recent
precipitation and cooler temperatures which have allowed for
higher daytime and overnight recoveries.

The same cannot be said for Wednesday when another round of
northerly winds develops Tuesday evening and into Wednesday as
another low drops down from Montana/Idaho and retrogrades over the
Great Basin. Ridging over the Pacific Northwest will generate
another north-to-south pressure gradient. These winds will be of
a similar intensity as the previous round, except with a 55 to 90%
chance of gusts greater than 40 mph for the Delta and Valley
locations along the I-5 corridor. Strongest gusts will once again
be focused around the Delta, where there is a 40 to 70% chance of
gusts greater than 50 mph. Minimum daytime humidities will be in
the mid teens to mid 20s across the Valley. Overnight values will
similarly be low, with maximum relative humidities in the mid 30s
to mid 40s. The lowest values will be located around the Delta
and Sacramento Valley locations west of I-5, where the strongest
winds will be present. These conditions will result in elevated
fire weather concerns for Wednesday. The question remains however,
whether or not available fuels will be dry enough in combination
with the forecasted conditions as they may mitigate fire weather
concerns.

Stay tuned to the forecast and follow us on social media for more
updates about these midweek winds and elevated fire weather
conditions.

&&

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Thursday THROUGH Sunday)...

EPAC upper ridging extends inland over NorCal Thursday into
Friday. Areas of gusty north to east wind possible early Thursday,
otherwise pressure gradient decreases with lighter wind into
Friday. Models begin to diverge over the weekend with EC
maintaining more ridging, while GFS advertising short wave trough
moving thru Sat, with deeper system approaching the West Coast
Sunday. Cluster analysis showing varied solutions between the
EC/GFS over the weekend. NBM leans towards troughing, but POPs
look overdone as wave Sat doesn't look strong enough for much
precip at this time. High temperatures expected to be near to
slightly below normal through the extended forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions over interior NorCal next 24 hrs except isold
MVFR/IFR/LIFR in BR/FG possible in Central Vly til 16z Sun. In
Central Vly/Delta, areas Nly sfc wind 15-25 kts with gusts to 30-40
kts btwn 16z-03z. In foothills/mtns, areas N-E sfc wind gusts 30-40
kts aft 18z.

&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Monday for
Carquinez Strait and Delta-Northern San Joaquin Valley-Southern
Sacramento Valley.

&&