What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Norman, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 2, 11:20 PM CST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
- Updated at 1213 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024 -Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Monday with the risk for heavy rainfall and flooding -Risk of severe weather tonight through Monday across much of the area, with the highest risk across northern Texas and the southern half of Oklahoma -Cooler and drier weather late Monday through Wednesday, then rain chances increase again
Area forecast discussion, Nov 2, 11:20 PM CST, 1 hour 13 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
1220 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024
...New AVIATION...
.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1213 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024
-Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Monday
with the risk for heavy rainfall and flooding
-Risk of severe weather tonight through Monday across much of the
area, with the highest risk across northern Texas and the
southern half of Oklahoma
-Cooler and drier weather late Monday through Wednesday, then rain
chances increase again
&&
.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of today and tonight)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024
Instability has been partially muted by extensive cloud cover, but
that effect has been offset by continued low level moisture
increase (dewpoints increasing into the mid-upper 60s). Shear will
continue to increase tonight (compared to earlier this morning)
which will yield an increased chance for enhanced wind damage
potential along the potential squall line later this evening and
overnight. With the increasing lower level shear and at least
some nocturnal surface based instability (0-3km) coincident with
pronounced surge in theta-e advection, there could will be a
corresponding increase in the potential for sustained
mesovortices along the leading edge of the squall line. This
potential appears to extend from western north Texas into
southwest and central Oklahoma during the late evening and
overnight. The question is if we can maintain sufficient surface
based instability in order for any damaging winds to be realized.
The threat for hail is minimal.
Of more certainty, there will be a high concern of flash flooding
rains, with prolonged periods of moderate to heavy rain in training
southwest to northeast oriented bands. The primarily area of concern
is covered by the Flood Watch. With the convective lines forecast
to line up close to the deep layer flow, and the deep layer flow
continues to back ahead of incoming trough, relatively slow
eastward progression is expected (as we have seen today), which
will result in excessive rainfall from western north Texas and
southwest Oklahoma, into central Oklahoma this evening and
overnight. Widespread 2 to 4 inch rain totals are expected, and
there will likely be an enhanced band of even higher amounts, on
the order of 4 to 6 inches, most likely within an county or two
of Interstate 44.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024
Still appears to be a relative lull in convection and heavy rain
Sunday morning and the first half of the afternoon, before another
uptick in convective development occurs, mainly across northern
Texas and the southern half of Oklahoma. There will continue to be a
flooding risk, and by this time, we are looking at the potential for
significant flash flooding if we can get convective development over
areas that get excessive rain Saturday/Saturday night.
By Sunday afternoon into the evening, instability should increase,
especially across western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Wind
shear (both lower level and deep layer) should also be more
pronounced. This could lead to more in the way of organized severe
weather, primarily in the form of damaging wind gusts, but QLCS
mesovortices will also be a threat for brief tornadoes. Additional
rainfall will lead to a continued risk for flooding, especially
across areas that see several inches Saturday and Saturday night.
Yet another round of convection will move over the region late
Monday, mainly across the eastern half of the forecast area with a
continued chance for flooding rainfall and severe storms as main
trough lifts through. A cold rain may continue through Monday
night in wrap around region of larger cyclone.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Friday)
Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024
Drier and cool weather for Tuesday and Wednesday, before another
large upper trough approaches and increases the chances of rain by
the end of the week into next weekend. Heavy rain appears likely
again, with the added flavor of a forecasted tropical system in the
northern Gulf. If the pattern comes together, we could be looking at
a PRE (predecessor rain event).
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024
Current synoptic scale weather system will persist through the
entire forecast period resulting in lowering ceilings and
visibilities with thunderstorms and rain affecting all of our
terminals. Expect periods of mostly MVFR conditions to brief
periods of IFR conditions. Terminals KCSM & KWWD in western
Oklahoma could see a lull in the storm activity around 12Z with
convection building back in by 18Z.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 61 70 47 59 / 100 100 20 0
Hobart OK 57 72 43 62 / 90 80 10 0
Wichita Falls TX 63 74 47 64 / 90 90 10 0
Gage OK 50 65 37 62 / 40 80 40 0
Ponca City OK 59 69 47 60 / 90 100 40 0
Durant OK 66 75 53 67 / 100 100 60 10
&&
.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for OKZ007-008-012-013-
017>020-023>032-035>048-050>052.
TX...Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for TXZ083>090.
&&
NEAR TERM...11
SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...68In the hours before
Special weather statement, Nov 2, 10:32 PM CST, 2 hours 1 minute before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1132 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024
OKZ038-039-044-045-TXZ086-090-030500-
Cotton OK-Stephens OK-Comanche OK-Jefferson OK-Clay TX-Wichita TX-
1132 PM CDT Sat Nov 2 2024
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Comanche, northwestern Jefferson, Cotton, southwestern Stephens,
northwestern Clay and east central Wichita Counties through MIDNIGHT
CDT...
At 1132 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles southeast of Randlett, moving northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Burkburnett, Walters, Comanche, Temple, Dean, Randlett, Hastings,
Cookietown, Waurika Lake, Corum, Empire City, Hulen, Taylor, Charlie,
and Cashion.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3392 9839 3408 9858 3458 9827 3438 9792
TIME...MOT...LOC 0432Z 213DEG 46KT 3409 9842
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
WareSpecial weather statement, Nov 2, 11:04 PM CST, 1 hour 29 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1204 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024
OKZ024-025-027-030530-
Grady OK-Oklahoma OK-Canadian OK-
1204 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Grady,
southwestern Oklahoma and eastern Canadian Counties through 1230 AM
CDT...
At 1204 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
southwestern Oklahoma City, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Western Oklahoma City, El Reno, Yukon, Bethany, Mustang, Warr Acres,
The Village, Tuttle, Piedmont, Nichols Hills, Union City, Woodlawn
Park, Richland, Wiley Post Airport, and The Fairgrounds.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3557 9743 3538 9766 3538 9767 3537 9767
3528 9778 3541 9798 3573 9780 3573 9772
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 221DEG 30KT 3538 9778
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SIXSpecial weather statement, Nov 2, 11:18 PM CST, 1 hour 15 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1218 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024
TXZ087-030545-
Knox TX-
1218 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Knox County through
1245 AM CDT...
At 1218 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles southeast of Grow to 5 miles west of
Rochester. Movement was northeast at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Munday, Knox City, Benjamin, Goree, Vera, Truscott, Rhineland, and
Gilliland.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3340 9999 3384 10000 3384 9984 3382 9983
3382 9976 3380 9975 3381 9974 3380 9973
3382 9972 3380 9970 3383 9969 3381 9966
3382 9964 3379 9960 3378 9958 3380 9958
3379 9956 3359 9947 3340 9947
TIME...MOT...LOC 0518Z 245DEG 40KT 3375 10013 3332 9996
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
WareSpecial weather statement, Nov 2, 11:25 PM CST, 1 hour 8 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1225 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024
OKZ018-019-024-025-030600-
Kingfisher OK-Oklahoma OK-Logan OK-Canadian OK-
1225 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Kingfisher, western Oklahoma, southwestern Logan and northeastern
Canadian Counties through 100 AM CDT...
At 1224 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
western Oklahoma City, moving north at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Oklahoma City, western Edmond, Guthrie, Yukon, Bethany,
Warr Acres, The Village, Piedmont, Nichols Hills, Cashion, Woodlawn
Park, Seward, Navina, Wiley Post Airport, The Fairgrounds, Downtown
Edmond, and Will Rogers Airport.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3539 9760 3545 9780 3587 9768 3578 9737
TIME...MOT...LOC 0524Z 199DEG 31KT 3549 9767
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
SIXSpecial weather statement, Nov 2, 11:26 PM CST, 1 hour 7 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
1226 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024
OKZ039-030600-
Stephens OK-
1226 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Stephens
County through 100 AM CDT...
At 1226 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Corum, moving northeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Duncan, Comanche, Bray, Corum, northern Waurika Lake, and Empire
City.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3434 9814 3442 9814 3468 9788 3468 9779
3453 9761 3429 9798 3429 9807
TIME...MOT...LOC 0526Z 225DEG 32KT 3438 9804
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
WareSpecial weather statement, Nov 3, 12:14 AM CST, 19 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Norman OK
114 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024
OKZ027-028-039-040-030645-
Grady OK-Stephens OK-Garvin OK-McClain OK-
114 AM CDT Sun Nov 3 2024
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Garvin,
southeastern Grady, northwestern Stephens and southwestern McClain
Counties through 145 AM CDT...
At 114 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 4
miles southeast of Marlow, moving northeast at 40 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Duncan, Marlow, Lindsay, Bray, Alex, Bradley, Cox City, and Erin
Springs.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3447 9785 3458 9803 3500 9777 3485 9749
TIME...MOT...LOC 0614Z 213DEG 36KT 3460 9790
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
Ware