High Wind in Alaska, January 3 to 4, 2024

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
459 AM AKST Wed Jan 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The active weather pattern continues through the weekend and into
next week as a series of strong low pressure systems move into
the Bering Sea. A strong pressure gradient across northern Alaska
is resulting in blizzard conditions across the Arctic Coast,
strong winds across the West Coast, as well as gusty winds across
Interior summits. The weekend will bring another strong storm to
the Eastern Bering Sea, bringing strong winds, and the potential
for snow, and blowing snow from the Bering Strait south.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...
Aloft, at 500 mb, a 540 dam (decameter) ridge is centered over the
Beaufort Sea and stretches southwest to the Yukon Territory,
while a 506 dam low is over the Canadian Archipelago and a 486 dam
low is centered near Unalaska this morning. The low near Unalaska
will push north into the Bering Sea to be between the Pribilofs
and Akutan by Thursday morning and then weaken as it tracks east
towards Bristol Bay through Friday morning, pushing the low over
the Canadian Archipelago east. As this low tracks north and east,
it will push a shortwave trough north northeast across the eastern
Interior Wednesday night into Friday. A piece of energy rotating
westward over the top of the low strengthens Thursday night as it
passes west of St Lawrence Island, developing into a 500 dam low
southeast of the Gulf of Anadyr. The upper level ridge becomes
elongated west to east across the Arctic Ocean Thursday before
taking on a north south orientation once again by the weekend.

At the surface, a 943 mb low is situated near Unalaska, while a
1044 mb high is northwest of Banks Island. The low will weaken as
it moves into the Bering Sea to be a 955 mb low 75 NM southeast
of St George by Thursday morning, continuing to weaken as it moves
east to be a 975 mb low 75 NM north of Cold Bay by Friday morning
and to 1003 mb by Friday evening as it moves onshore near Dillingham.
The high will largely stay in place and weaken through Thursday
to be 1035 mb. By Friday, the weakening high moves southeast
towards Banks Island, while a 1032 mb high moves east out of
Siberia and across the Arctic Ocean. Another strong low moves
northeast over the north Pacific and towards the Aleutians Friday
night into Saturday, however, there is still uncertainty in the
details of this system.

North Slope and Brooks Range...
Blizzard conditions are ongoing across the Arctic Coast this
morning and are expected to continue through the day. Strong east
winds persist due to a very tight pressure gradient across
northern Alaska, with gusts to 60 mph possible along the coast.
Winds diminish this afternoon from Point Lay west and visibility
is expected to improve for this area. Further east, winds may
diminish slightly late this afternoon and evening, allowing
visibility to improve slightly, though there is some uncertainty
in how much the winds diminish. The reprieve is short though, as
winds strengthen once again by Thursday morning. Winds diminish
Friday into Friday night across the region as the pressure
gradient relaxes. Clear to mostly clear skies prevail through
Friday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
Wind remains the name of the game for the West Coast and Western
Interior today as strong and gusty east to northeast winds
prevail, thanks to the low in the Bering. Winds are expected to
peak this morning, with many locations seeing winds gusts in
excess of 40 mph. As the low in the Bering tracks east and
weakens, winds will diminish through Thursday. The blowing snow
forecast was/is tricky due to a lack of falling snow for most of
the West Coast and Western Interior. Visibility has largely
remained above 1 mile despite the strong winds. Opted to cancel
the Winter Weather Advisories for zones 815-819 given the lack of
reduced visibility in current winds. Winds will peak this morning,
but believe that blowing snow will not be an issue for these
locations. Further south, there is a chance of snow, primarily
south of the Seward Peninsula this morning, so opted to continue
the Winter Weather Advisories there. Snow chances linger from the
Seward Peninsula south through Friday. The weekend will bring
another strong storm to the Eastern Bering Sea, potentially
bringing strong winds, and the potential for snow, and blowing
snow from the Bering Strait south.

Central and Eastern Interior...
The strong pressure gradient across northern Alaska will maintain
gusty east to northeast winds across the region, especially over
summits. Summit along the Dalton Highway will gusts as high as 60
mph through Thursday, while further south along the Steese
Highway, wind gusts up to 40 mph are expected. These winds will
reduce visibility in blowing snow and cause drifting snow. The
Tanana Valley Jet is blowing this morning with gusts as high as 55
mph. The Tanana Valley Jet will persist into Friday, but the
strongest winds will be today with winds diminishing below wind
advisory criteria Thursday morning. At lower elevations, east to
northeast winds will be lighter, but gusts up to 20 mph are still
possible through Thursday. Cloud cover increases from the south
late today and tonight, as a shortwave trough and a front moves
north across the Interior. Snow is likely across the Eastern
Interior, along the AlCan border, with 1 to 2 inches of
accumulation expected. Further west, there is a chance of snow,
with snow accumulation of half an inch or less.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
The active weather pattern continues into the weekend as another
strong low moves north out of the northern Pacific and into the
Bering Sea Saturday night into Sunday. This low has the potential
to bring another round of strong winds from the Seward Peninsula
south, as well as snow and blowing snow. Last few model runs have
had the winds over the Y-K Delta taking on a more easterly
direction, which would bring in drier air, limiting precipitation,
and thus blowing snow. There is still uncertainty with the
details of this system. Another low moves towards out of the north
Pacific and into the Bering Sea midweek.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Blizzard Warning for AKZ801.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ802>804-808.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ821.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ831-832.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ834.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ809.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-807-856.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ802.
     Gale Warning for PKZ802-850-851-853.
     Gale Warning for PKZ803-812.
     Gale Warning for PKZ804-808>810-855.
     Gale Warning for PKZ805-813>815-852-858>861.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806.
     Gale Warning for PKZ811-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ854.
&&