High Wind in California, January 3 to 4, 2024

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
319 AM PST Wed Jan 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...03/120 AM.

A cold storm system will bring periods of gusty northwest winds,
light to moderate rain, and mountain snow today. Thursday and
Friday and most likely Saturday will be dry. Another cold storm
will bring a chance of rain and more mountain snow to the region
over the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures will remain below
normal through the period.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...03/306 AM.

A cold front is currently just exiting SBA county and entering VTA
county. The front will continue to the east and will be over LA
county in time to affect rush hour. It will then exit LA county
slightly after mid morning. Rainfall rates across the flatter
portions are around a quarter inch per hour. There is decent south
flow with the front and this has added some upslope enhancement to
the rain across the coastal slopes where rainfall rates have
approached a half inch per hour. Rainfall amounts with the front
will range form a quarter inch to three quarters of an inch.

The cold core of the low along with a post frontal trof will
move over the area. The instability generated from the cold core
and the weak PVA from the trof will bring a 10-20% chance of
TSTMs will start out across the Central Coast later this morning
and will spread into VTA/LA Counties later this morning and early
afternoon.

This cold storm will bring the lowest snow levels of the season.
Snow levels will likely start out around 4500-5000 ft this morning,
but will lower later in the afternoon and overnight. Snow levels
could fall to around 4000 feet. The front is moving a little
quicker than previously thought and the winter weather advisory
end time has been shortened to 600 pm this evening for all areas
save for the VTA and LA north mtn zones where upslope flow will
keep the chance of snow going through Thursday morning. Areas
above 5000 ft will likely up to 5 inches of snow. There is a 20-30
percent chance of 1 inch snow accumulations across the summit of
the I-5 Tejon Pass later this afternoon and into Thursday morning.
Gusty northwest winds between 40 to 50 mph will move in behind
the front and wind advisories will very likely be issued at 600 pm
as the winter weather advisory expires.

Strong NW to W winds will move in behind the front and there will
be 6 hour burst of advisory level winds across most of the coasts.

Max temps will struggle to even reach 60 degrees and end up 6 to
12 degrees below normal.

Aside from the clouds and showers across the north slopes with
4000 ft snow levels Thursday will be a mostly clear day. Gusty NW
winds will continue esp in the mtns. The extra sunshine will do
little to counteract the cold airmass and most hi temps will be in
the mid 50s to around 60.

The cold atmosphere and clear skies will make for a cold night
Thursday night into early Friday and freezing temps will be likely
across many interior sections.

A fast moving upper level ridge will move into the area Friday
and hgts will rise to near 570 dam. Offshore flow will develop as
well (esp from the north) and there will be some gusty near advisory
canyon winds in the morning. Skies will be sunny and high temps
will warm 4 to 8 degrees from Thu. Despite the warming, highs
will mostly be in the 60s.

.LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...03/319 AM.

NW flow sets up over the area Saturday. Hgts will fall a few dam.
There will be about 4 mb of offshore flow form both the N and E
and there will be borderline advisory level gusts through the
Santa Ana prone area. Skies will be a worst partly cloudy.
Afternoon highs will range through the 60s for most csts/vlys.

The forecast for the next system has been trending more and more
eastward and now the fcst is far enough east to jeopardize any
threat of rain. The rain forecast has been scaled back to just a
20 to 40 percent chc for Saturday Night and Sunday morning.
Rainfall amounts will likely not exceed a tenth of an inch.

The system will usher in another round of cold air and most hi
temps across the csts/vlys will only reach into the high 50s on
Sun.

Weak ridging will build into the state on Monday and last into
Tuesday. There will be weak offshore flow as well which should
limit the threat of low cloud, but will not be strong enough to
create advisory level winds. Look for 1 to 2 degrees of warming on
Monday and another 2 to 4 degrees on Tuesday. This warming will
not be enough to bring max temps up to seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION...03/0555Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, there was no marine inversion or marine layer.

Low to moderate confidence in TAFs through 20Z then good
confidence. A frontal passage will bring frequently changing
cigs/vis to all sites through 20Z. There is a slight chance of
T-storms from 12Z-18Z. Good confidence in VFR conds and gusty
winds at all sites aft 20Z.

KLAX...Good confidence in TAF through 10Z then low confidence as
cigs/cigs will vary frequently in rain. BKN-OVC015-025 conds are
most likely during rain. There is a slight chance of T-storms
from 12Z-18Z. Good confidence in VFR conds after 20Z. There is a
20 percent chance of 25 kt XWND 00Z-06Z. High confidence any east
wind component will be under 6kt.

KBUR...Good confidence in TAF through 10Z then low confidence as
cigs/cigs will vary frequently in rain. BKN-OVC015-025 conds are
most likely during rain. There is a slight chance of T-storms
from 12Z-18Z. Good confidence in VFR conds after 20Z.

&&

.MARINE...02/627 PM.

This evening through Thursday night a storm system with an
associated cold front will move across the coastal waters.
Chances of SCA conditions will increase to 70-90%, starting in the
northern outer waters this evening, then spreading southward to
reach the Southern California Bight early Wednesday morning.
Wednesday into Thursday morning, Gale Force winds are likely for
the waters near and south of Point Conception. Seas will peak
Wednesday at around 15 to 17 feet for the outer waters, 12 to 14
feet nearshore along the Central Coast, and 8 to 12 feet for the
nearshore waters S of Pt. Conception, with periods around 15
seconds. By Friday there is a 70% chance that conditions will fall
below SCA level for the inner waters, while the outer waters are
likely to hold at SCA level through the coming weekend.

Saturday into Monday, another large swell will potentially affect
the coastal waters. Swell heights for the outer waters may reach
14 to 17 feet with periods around 15 seconds. The inner waters may
see swell heights between 7 and 12 feet. Lower confidence exists at
this time for this system.

&&

.BEACHES...02/653 PM.

Surf will increase this evening into Thursday, with a return of
dangerous rip currents along the Southwest California coastline.
This swell energy has a westerly directional component (270-290
degrees) with an initial period of 14-15 seconds. As high tide
levels continue to lower, the threat of coastal flooding will be
minimal through Friday. Breaking waves of 10 to 15 feet are
expected for the Central Coast with higher sets up to 18 feet
possible, and 7 to 12 feet for the Ventura coast. Los Angeles
Coast will likely see surf of 5 to 10 feet. The largest surf will
once again be for west and northwest facing beaches. For
LA/Ventura counties, areas most susceptible to the higher surf
include Ventura and Oxnard, Manhattan Beach, Hermosa Beach, and
Palos Verdes. The Santa Barbara South Coast will see elevated to
potentially high surf conditions of 4 to 7 feet.

For this weekend, swell model projections continue to highlight
another period of high surf, with greatest impacts for the
Central Coast and Ventura Coast. There is a moderate risk of
coastal flooding, especially across the Central Coast early
Saturday morning through Monday morning. Low to moderate
confidence in this system overall, however high confidence that
coastal flooding impacts will be much less severe than the
December 28-30th event.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST
      Thursday for zones 87-354-362-366-367. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 9 PM
      PST Thursday for zones 87-362-366. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect until 9 PM PST Thursday for
      zones 340-346. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     High Surf Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM
      PST Thursday for zones 349-350-354. (See LAXCFWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 3 AM PST
      Friday for zones 350-352. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 6 PM PST this evening
      for zones 353-376-379-380. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 10 PM PST
      Thursday for zones 369-370-375. (See LAXNPWLOX).
     Winter Weather Advisory in effect until 10 AM PST Thursday
      for zones 377-378. (See LAXWSWLOX).
     Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Thursday for zones
      381-383. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PST Thursday for
      zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 PM PST this afternoon
      for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PST
      Thursday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Friday for zone
      670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect until noon PST today for zones
      673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from noon today to 3 AM PST Thursday
      for zone 673. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Warning in effect from noon today to 3 AM PST Friday for
      zone 676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Schoenfeld/Smith
BEACHES...Hall/Schoenfeld/Smith
SYNOPSIS...30

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox