Drought in Guam, January 3 to 31, 2024

Name: Drought in Guam, January 3 to 31, 2024
Start: 2024-01-03T21:00
End: 2024-01-31T23:59
Location: Guam

January 3 to 31, 2024 · NWS GUM · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

El Ni o developed during the summer of 2023, but the western Pacific experienced a below average year in Tropical Cyclone (TC) activity with only 19 TCs developing. This, along with a quick return of a dry trade-wind pattern in December of 2023, led to below average rainfall from much of Micronesia.

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS GUM wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Guam wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 3, 8:06 AM UTC, 2 hours 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 3, 8:06 AM UTC, 2 hours 54 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tiyan GU
606 PM ChST Wed Jan 3 2024

.Marianas Synopsis...
Gentle to moderate trades prevail, bringing mostly pleasant weather.
Buoys indicate seas are about 5 feet.

&&

.Discussion...
A drier and diffusive trade-wind regime will persist in the region
through at least the weekend. Breezy conditions may return by early
next week.

&&

.Marine...
Combined seas of 5 to 7 feet are expected to persist for the rest of
the week. There will be a moderate risk of rip currents along north
and east facing reefs of the Marianas through at least the weekend.
Little change in surf is expected through the weekend, followed by
an increase along east facing reefs around the middle of next week
due to higher wind waves and elevated trade swell.

&&

.Eastern Micronesia and Chuuk...
Scattered showers for Chuuk with enhanced trade convergence on the
back side of the departing trough. For Pohnpei, Kosrae, and Majuro,
just mainly isolated trade showers. For the rest of the forecast
period, an increase in trade winds is expected, but the enhanced
trade convergence (or ITCZ over towards Majuro) and shower potential
will be focused south of the forecast points closer to the equator.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may creep north at times
into the forecast points, especially Kosrae, as surges in the trade
winds flow into disturbances passing near to north of the equator,
with the enhanced convergence drifting north.

Combined seas 6 to 7 feet (7 to 9 feet Majuro) may climb about a
foot with an increase in wind waves and trade swell. Winds moderate
to fresh with occasional strong gusts for the period. A surge in the
trade winds looks to push into the Marshall Islands by tonight and
conditions look to be hazardous to small craft for Majuro through
tomorrow night and a Small Craft Advisory has been issued. A brief
lull in wind and waves is possible over the weekend before climbing
back up early next week with another bump in trade winds and swell,
along with the arrival of an elevated longer period northerly swell.

&&

.Western Micronesia for Yap and Palau...
The ridge that brought a lull in showers is shifting west. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected tonight through
tomorrow with a return of trade flow and another surface trough
passing through the region. Mainly isolated trade showers for the
weekend followed by another possible surface trough bringing an
increase in showers early next week.

Sea heights 2 to 4 foot increase back to 4 to 6 feet for Palau and 5
to 7 feet for Yap by Saturday as the normal trade pattern resumes.
Winds light to gentle becoming gentle to moderate with occasional
fresh gusts by later tomorrow and into the weekend as the trade flow
increases. Winds and waves look to increase further early next week
with another bump in trade winds and swell, along with the arrival of
an elevated longer period northerly swell.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...None.
MP...None.
Marianas Waters...None.
&&

Marianas: Montvila
Micronesia: Slagle

Event by event

2 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Micronesia

When: January 3, 9:00 PM GST to January 31, 11:59 PM GST
Where: Micronesia forecast zone
Reported by: Drought Monitor

Ulithi, an island in Yap State and located just northeast of Yap Proper, entered Severe Drought (D2) as December of 2023 ended with 3.87 inches of rain which is ranked the seventh driest in a 41 year period, with eighth consecutive weeks below rainfall for water needs. Yap entered moderate drought (D1) with 3.37 inches of rain which is ranked third driest out of 73 year period, but only five consecutive weeks below rainfall for water needs. Within Chuuk State, Lukunor atoll entered D0 (Abnormally Dry), along with the following islands in Pohnpei State: Pohnpie, Pingelap, and Nukuoro. On January 10th, the Governor of Pohnpei State declared a state of emergency for the main island of Pohnpei and the outer islands of the State. Pohnpei State had been experiencing shortage of waters, with schools, hospitals and dispensaries to be prioritized for water availability, with schools being on half day schedules for students. The Drought Monitor updated the main island of Pohnpei to D1 (Moderate Drought) January 16th.

Drought, Marshall Islands

When: January 3, 9:00 PM GST to January 31, 11:59 PM GST
Where: Marshall Islands forecast zone
Reported by: State Official

Drought conditions quickly spread across the Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI), following a dry December. The Drought Monitor at beginning of January had Wotje, one of the northern atolls of the RMI in D1 (Moderate Drought), while no other island were labeled based on satellite rainfall estimates and rain gauge data. However, reports from the outer islands of the RMI started to come and were forwarded by the Weather Service Office (WSO) in Majuro. On January 9th, The Ministry of Education of the RMI reported water scarcity at the Jaluit High School (JHS) in Jaluit Atoll, stating rain had not fallen on Jaluit in a month. For hygiene purposes JHS students and staff had been getting water from the community and the old WWII water catchment located on the ocean side of the school. The drinking water catchments were dry and JHS was relying on Japan-donated water storage unit for drinking and cooking. The Reverse Osmosis machine for JHS was non-operational and it was predicted the school would run out of water for all purposes around January 12th. On January 17th (local time) the Drought Monitor had Majuro, Kwajalein, Jaluit, and Mili in D0 (Abnormally Dry). Majuro was upgraded to D1 January 24th, and on January 30th Mili was also added to D1.

What these are

Drought: A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Guam in 2024 Every state in 2024 This day in weather history Warnings in Guam, January 2024

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1158002, 1158246.