0 inches of rain fell on a melting, shallow snowpack and frozen ground.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MKX wrote it up.
The Fox River near New Munster in Kenosha County reached minor flood stage after |1.5-2.0 inches of rain fell on a melting, shallow snowpack and frozen ground.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Milwaukee, WI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 10:26 PM CST, 1 hour 34 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1026 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 .UPDATE... (Issued 1026 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023) The radar returns are reaching the surface over nrn IL where the nose of the LLJ and associated warm, moist advection and frontogenesis is present. This is also supported aloft by a passing shortwave trough. This area of pcpn will move newd into se WI for the overnight with the wrn edge possibly clipping MSN, then move out of se WI by sunrise. For pcpn type, expect more rain than snow, but no impacts expected due to temps remaining above freezing. Patchy drizzle may then develop through the morning. Gehring && .SHORT TERM... (Issued 300 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023) Tonight through Thursday: Clouds moving back in ahead of another weak system pushing through as we will likely see a rain/snow mix across the area tonight into Wednesday morning. Precip chances are not high across the whole area with lesser chances across the northwest parts of the CWA but fairly high chances in the southeast. This is primarily due to this system having a bit of dry air infiltrating the broad low pressure that may yield lighter precip chances. In addition there certainly seems like lesser forcing in the area as well. There will be precip likely northwest of the CWA and in the southeast parts of the CWA but there maybe little or at least less in the northwest parts of the CWA. The forcing seems to be focused in multiple areas with some PVA in the mid levels, strong WAA in the low to mid levels, and also some low to midlevel frontogenesis. There will also be a precip type concern with this system as we should expect snow, though light given low QPF, for much of the northern two thirds of the CWA given where temperatures will be overnight but there may be some rain further to the south where temps will be warmer though there is some uncertainty. Looking at soundings we could expect wet bulbing to bring temperatures to below freezing and allow for precip to be snow potentially across the whole area for at least the early part of the period which is why there is some uncertainty. But, the main issue early in the period is that much of the area may be fighting dry air and lead to little to no precip. As the system pushes out the majority of precip will occur and mostly rain will be expected as the wet bulb warm nose will get above freezing, especially further to the south and southeast where higher QPF is expected. As the system pushes out we will likely see some rain but it will be possibly for some areas with cooler surface temps to see some freezing drizzle/rain for a very brief period as WAA will allow for a warm nose aloft that with cooler surface temps could bring the profile for that brief period of ice. Impacts will likely be fairly limited given how brief it would be but its worth noting. Precip chances may linger through part of the day Wednesday Later Wednesday into Wednesday night should be quiet with higher pressure to the north pushing things out and keeping things dry. But overnight we will see temps come down as a backdoor cold front pushes through. Thursday will be a bit cooler but overall a quiet day dominated by high pressure though by Thursday night we will see a strong system approaching from the south/southwest that will be a system of concern come Friday. Kuroski && .LONG TERM... (Issued 300 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023) Friday through Tuesday: Attention has gravitated toward Friday as models remain widely spread for how this system will play out. For the most part the track is really the most important thing in this scenario as it could mean the difference between no precip at all to a foot of snow in some places. There may be some slight concern/uncertainty with respect to QPF and precip type but that too seems almost entirely dependent on the track. The newest models have shown a trend toward more snow but it is still early and changes are likely. The EC has progressively trended further north but the GFS has generally trended more south with both around the same region right now, but the ensembles remain all over. However, if we see a track of the low over the Illinois/Indiana/ southern Lake Michigan area we will likely see accumulating snow somewhere in the CWA. QPF seems likely to be fairly high with this system with at least near an inch and with snow ratios likely to be near 10:1 the potential for 10+ inches would be high for at least part of the area. In addition with this likely to feature strong frontogenesis and some lake enhancement we would expect certain areas to receive locally higher amounts. It should also be mentioned that there will be strong north/northeast winds possibly in excess of 35mph which could lead to blizzard like conditions if we get the snow. This would also be a fairly quick hitting system with heavy snow rates expected with low visibilities and potentially high impacts to travel so this could be a major situation. Over the next day or so we anticipate this system will come into focus and we will be able to elaborate on our chances for accumulating snow further but there remains too much uncertainty at the moment to clarify exactly what will occur. There is an increasing concern for accumulating snow, however. By Friday night the system should have pushed out of the region with broad high pressure strengthening across the region through the weekend. There is certainly still uncertainty with some shortwave activity Saturday evening that could cause some precip but moisture remains limited at this time that would likely prevent much in the way of precip through the weekend. By Monday/Tuesday there will be a chance for another system to come through with fairly good model agreement at this juncture but there is definitely uncertainty but the chances are there. Kuroski && .AVIATION... (Issued 1026 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023) Light rain from nrn IL will reach as far north as MSN and MKE during the early morning hours. Some snow may mix with the rain at times. The precipitation will then shift east and move out of se WI by sunrise. Patchy drizzle may develop over much of srn WI through the entire morning. Low Cigs will develop from south to north across srn WI during this time with Cigs falling below 1 kft. The low Cigs will then dissipate along and south of I-94 during the afternoon but remain farther to the north. Gehring && .MARINE... (Issued 300 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023) Weak high pressure will push out today with weak easterly winds. Weak low pressure will push through Wednesday into Wednesday night with winds turning to the west during the day. Winds will quickly shift to the north Wednesday night, as the low moves away. High pressure will then pass by to the north of the region Thursday with winds turning northeast. No real concerns for winds or waves in the nearshore through Thursday. Northeast gales are looking likely to occur Friday into Friday night, but somewhat still depends on the track of the next low pressure system passing through the region. We may need a Gale Watch for the southern half of the lake in the coming day or so, depending on trends in the system. Kuroski && .MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. LM...None. && Visit us at weather.gov/milwaukee Follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/NWSMilwaukee www.twitter.com/NWSMilwaukee www.youtube.com/NWSMilwaukee
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 314 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 WIZ046-047-051-052-056>060-062>072-012115- Marquette-Green Lake-Fond du Lac-Sheboygan-Sauk-Columbia-Dodge- Washington-Ozaukee-Iowa-Dane-Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee- Lafayette-Green-Rock-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- 314 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central Wisconsin, south central Wisconsin and southeast Wisconsin. .DAY ONE...Tonight Some area rivers will be in or may reach minor flood stage. There is a chance for a mix of light rain, light snow and perhaps a very brief period of light freezing drizzle tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday There is a small chance for a mix of light rain, light freezing rain and light snow night Wednesday morning. Some area rivers may reach minor flood stage this week. There is an increasing chance for snow Friday into Friday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. LMZ643>646-012115- Sheboygan to Port Washington WI- Port Washington to North Point Light WI- North Point Light to Wind Point WI- Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL- 314 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the nearshore waters from Sheboygan Wisconsin to Winthrop Harbor Illinois. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday Winds and waves may reach Small Craft Advisory to even gales Friday into Friday evening. LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868- 870-872-874-876-878-012115- Lake Michigan Michigan City IN to St. Joseph MI 5 NM offshore to mid-line of lake.- Lake Michigan from Seul Choix Point to Rock Island Passage 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan South of a line from Seul Choix Point to the Mackinac Bridge and North of a line from Charlevoix MI to South Fox Island 5NM offshore- Lake Michigan from Charlevoix to Point Betsie MI 5NM Offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Point Betsie to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Rock Island Passage to Sturgeon Bay WI 5NM offshore to mid lake- Lake Michigan from Sturgeon Bay to Two Rivers WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Two Rivers to Sheboygan WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Sheboygan to Port Washington WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Port Washington to North Point Light WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from North Point Light to Wind Point WI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wind Point WI to Winthrop Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Winthrop Harbor to Wilmette Harbor IL 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Wilmette Harbor to Michigan City in 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Pentwater to Manistee MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Whitehall to Pentwater MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Grand Haven to Whitehall MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from Holland to Grand Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- Lake Michigan from South Haven to Holland MI 5NM offshore to Mid lake- Lake Michigan from St Joseph to South Haven MI 5NM offshore to Mid Lake- 314 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the open waters of Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Tuesday Northeast winds may reach gale force Friday into Friday evening. www.weather.gov/mkx
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
The Fox River at New Munster reached minor flood stage. Floodwaters were up to the first floors of some homes in the Town of Wheatland and Village of Salem Lakes along Shorewood Drive and Riverside Drive.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wisconsin in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Wisconsin, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1082240.