NWS Spokane, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Apr 2, 9:40 AM PST, 3 hours 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 2, 9:40 AM PST, 3 hours 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
1040 AM PDT Sun Apr 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the Inland
Northwest on today. Sunday night snow could impact the Monday
morning commute. A cooler and wetter patter will continue into
the middle of the week. Temperatures will warm into the 50s by the
end of the week with a chance of rain. Next weekend looks mild
with temperatures warming into the 60s.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Morning update: Showers are already beginning to develop in the
Palouse this morning. Expect coverage to increase markedly into
early afternoon, with another round of scattered snow/rain/graupel
showers in eastern Washington and the Idaho Panhandle this
afternoon and early evening, with isolated lightning strikes
anticipated as well. Forecast for tonight into Monday morning
remains quite uncertain, but latest guidance has trended just a
tad to the south, with probabilities higher of impactful snow in
the Palouse versus the Spokane and Coeur d'Alene areas. High
confidence (>80 percent probabilities) that there will be a narrow
corridor (nearly west-east) of 2-4 inches of snow by late Monday
morning somewhere between I-90 and the northeast Blues eastward
into the Idaho Panhandle, but this corridor will be quite small
(roughly 20 miles or less), with highly variable (and quickly
diminishing) totals within small distances of the main corridor.
Tough forecast, to say the least... /CMS
Today through Monday night: Very cold air aloft keeps the
atmosphere very unstable throughout this forecast period, with
700-500mb lapse rates of -8 to -9 C/km. Saturday's graupel and
thunder show should be repeated again this afternoon. There does
appear to be some very small scale disturbance that swings through
the area today, and that will favor the Palouse for the best odds
of showers. But everyone has at least a 20 percent chance of some
sort of precipitation. Precipitation type should be snow or
graupel as dew points are very dry, around 20F.
Forecast gets a little more complex and tricky for Sunday night
and Monday. A closed low moves across the area during this period.
Just about every forecast model shows it, but with slightly
different tracks. The consensus has about an 80% chance of snow
for Spokane, the Palouse, and the Panhandle. Given the unstable
atmosphere and closed-low forcing, amounts are nearly impossible
to forecast. Most folks in this region should see around an inch
of snow, but amounts exceeding 4" by the Monday morning commute
have about a 20% chance of occurring. Roads will be cold enough to
accumulate snow, so the Monday morning commute has an 80% chance
of being impacted. The alternate scenario is that this upper low
tracks a little farther to the south, impacting the Palouse with
snow, but leaving Spokane and CdA dry.
If the morning snow lingers long enough, temperatures may struggle
to reach 40F by the afternoon. Elsewhere, more graupel showers and
thunderstorms are expected for Monday afternoon and evening. RJ
Tuesday and Wednesday: Trough will continue its push across the
southern Rocky Mountains and into the northern Plains. The
back edge of the trough will slowly move across the Inland
Northwest as the ridge noses onto the west coast. The atmosphere
will remain unstable for showers to develop each late morning
through the early evening. The deterministics are showing small
pieces of energy swirling around the region. This will bring a
threat of light snow to the valleys Tuesday morning. NBM has a 20%
chance of a tenth of an inch or more of snow for Spokane, Deer
Park, Coeur d'Alene, Bonners Ferry and Republic. A 30-40% for
Pullman, Sandpoint and Kellogg, and about a 10% chance for
Colville. As far as the mountain passes go Tuesday morning, the
probabilities of more than a half inch are as follows: Sherman
Pass 10%, Stevens Pass 25% and Lookout Pass 30%.
Temperatures Tuesday will continue to be about 8 to 10 degrees
below average for the beginning of April. Highs will be in the
40s, with lower 50s for parts of central WA. We will begin to see
some warming starting Wednesday with populated lowland temps in
the mid 40s to mid 50s, but it will still be about 4 to 6 degrees
below average.
Thursday and Friday: Cluster analysis agrees on the ridge moving
into the Pacific Northwest Thursday. They are split about 50/50 as
far as a drier more amplified ridge vs a wetter broad ridge.
Both EC and GFS Ensembles suggest an increase in precipitable
water values and precipitation moving into central WA midday and
eastern WA/north ID by later afternoon or evening. Temperatures
continue to warm, so threat of snow will be confined to the
mountains during the late night and early morning. Accumulations
currently look to be generally 1-3 inches, but if the wetter EC
Ensemble were to verify, it could be more. Daytime temps will
finally be around average by Thur/Fri - in the 50s to around 60.
The one exception will be the adjacent Cascade valleys where they
will still be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, which is about 4-6
degrees below average. Chances of precipitation continues through
Friday, tho amounts look to be lighter than what we will see
Thursday Night.
Saturday and Sunday: Shower chances decrease Saturday to mainly
the Cascade crest and ID Panhandle, and by Sunday as the ridge
really amplifies over the region, we dry out and warm up. Saturday
will be our first chance of seeing 60 degrees for many locations
across the region. Statistics of 60 degrees or higher are: Spokane
65-75%, Coeur d'Alene 40%, Pullman 30%, Colville 65%, Omak 85%,
Lewiston, Moses Lake and Wenatchee 95% or higher. Sunday
probabilities are 90% or higher with all locations but Pullman
(85%) and Sandpoint (55%) of seeing 60 degrees. /Nisbet
&&
.AVIATION...
18z TAFs: Very challenging 24-hour forecast. Expect one or more
snow/rain/graupel showers through 03z at most of the TAF sites,
with very brief sub-VFR conditions if a shower directly impacts a
terminal. After 03z, the showers should diminish in coverage;
however, a steadier band of snow is forecast to develop in
portions of eastern/southeastern Washington and adjacent portions
of the Idaho Panhandle (>90 percent probability). The exact
location of this band is uncertain, and because of its anticipated
narrow size, this leads to a low-confidence forecast for
GEG/SFF/COE/PUW/LWS overnight into Monday morning. Probabilities
of IFR snow are around 50 percent at GEG/SFF/COE to around 75
percent at PUW (less than 25 percent at LWS), with timing
generally between 06z and 15z. If the band sets up directly over a
terminal, quick and impactful accumulation is probable (>80
percent). However, if the band is displaced by more than 15-25
miles, little impactful snow may be observed. There is higher
confidence that sub-VFR CIGs will develop with time after 06z,
lingering through Monday morning.
Winds at the TAF sites will primarily be southerly or
southwesterly around 10 kt this afternoon, becoming lighter and
more terrain-driven or variable overnight. /CMS
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane 44 28 45 27 46 29 / 50 70 60 20 30 10
Coeur d'Alene 42 27 42 26 44 25 / 60 70 80 20 50 10
Pullman 42 27 41 26 42 26 / 90 70 80 30 30 20
Lewiston 49 32 47 32 49 31 / 30 30 40 30 20 20
Colville 46 23 48 25 49 25 / 40 60 40 20 40 0
Sandpoint 41 26 42 28 44 27 / 70 70 70 30 70 20
Kellogg 38 27 39 26 41 26 / 90 90 90 30 70 20
Moses Lake 51 28 53 29 53 29 / 20 10 20 10 10 0
Wenatchee 47 29 50 30 50 30 / 30 10 20 10 20 0
Omak 48 28 50 28 51 28 / 10 20 20 10 20 0
&&
.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&