Tornadoes and Hail in Texas, April 2 to 3, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
204 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...New Long Term...

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 119 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023/
/Today through Monday night/

Thunderstorms are expected to erupt across the area within the
next few hours in what could be a notable severe weather outbreak
producing large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a few
tornadoes. There are several areas where storms will likely
initiate, and the radar may look pretty messy by late afternoon.

Visible satellite and a recent sounding from TAMU show a cap is
still in place across much of the region, but values aren't that
strong. The surface set-up includes a dryline currently extending
from about Childress to Sweetwater to Big Lake. Ahead of the
dryline, a warm front, marked by 60 dewpoints for this purpose,
extends from near Childress to Graham to southern Dallas County
to Athens. Both of these features will be focus areas for
convective development over the next few hours. Aloft, a shortwave
is now moving into the Texas Panhandle, spreading lift across
northwest Texas and western Oklahoma. Storms will likely develop
across our northwest near the dryline, near/along the warm front,
and/or in the warm sector in the next 1-3 hours as this lift
spreads across our area. Severe weather parameters marked by
little inhibition (weak capping), steep lapse rates, good shear
values, and some decent turning of the low level winds will
support an all-hazards threat with any strong or severe storms.
The mode of the storms will be a combination of isolated and
scattered supercells and clustered storms. Flash flooding is not
a large threat, but if multiple storms move over an area, isolated
areas of flooding may occur.

Once storms develop they will have an overall east or northeast
motion with them; however, right moving supercells may move
southeast. By midnight, the storms are expected to move into East
Texas and out of our coverage area. The dryline will remain
stalled across the region, likely near or just west of the I-35
corridor. This will result in overnight conditions ranging from
warm and muggy across our eastern counties, to a little cooler and
drier in our western counties. Monday morning temperatures will
range from the lower 50s to the upper 60s.

Monday will be a very warm day with well above temperatures
reaching the lower 90s across the western half of the region. The
dryline may advance a little east to near or just east of the
I-35 corridor. Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions
will exist west of I-35 and especially west of Highway 281 where
low RHs, breezy southwest winds and hot temperatures will align.

In the late Monday afternoon hours, a storm or two may develop
along the dryline and move northeast off the boundary. Forecast
soundings indicate large CAPE along parts of the dryline due to
the hot temperatures, decent lapse rates in the mid levels, and
decent deep layer shear values approaching 45 kts. Southwest flow
aloft will prevail, but a larger scale forcing mechanism may be
the missing component that prevents storms from developing.
However, convergence along the dryline and hot temperatures *may*
be enough to force convective initiation. If storms are able to
form, large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. The
development is conditional though, and we will continue to refine
this potential over the next 24 hours. For now, maintained a 20
PoP along and east of the dryline late Monday afternoon and
evening.

JLDunn

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday and Beyond/

The unsettled weather pattern is expected to continue through the
long-term period. A deep upper-level trough will be shifting out
of the Great Basin region into the Four Corners region Monday
night. Unseasonably warm conditions will continue into Tuesday
with southwesterly flow aloft advecting 18-22 degreeC 850mb
temperatures into North and Central Texas. Efficient mixing during
peak daytime heating will promote afternoon highs in the mid 80s
to low 90s (15 to 20 degrees above-average for this time of year).
A tightening pressure gradient in response to a deepening surface
low traversing the Central Plains will lead to breezy south-
southwest winds of 15-25 mph gusting over 35 mph at times on
Tuesday. These wind speeds will be approaching Wind Advisory
criteria, and an issuance may need to be considered in future
forecast packages. A dryline is expected to extend southward into
western North Texas by midday Tuesday. Warm, breezy, dry
conditions behind the dryline will promote elevated to critical
fire weather conditions as the dryline mixes eastward toward the
I-35 corridor Tuesday afternoon. There are some uncertainties in
the extent of the overall fire weather threat due to questions
regarding the location of the dryline and wetting rainfall over
the next 48 hours. However, dry, breezy conditions will be
efficient in drying/curing at least 1-hour fuels and will promote
an environment supportive of initial wildfire attacks and spread.

Increasing southerly flow ahead of the dryline will transport Gulf
moisture northward, with dewpoints in the mid 60s expected across
the warm sector Tuesday afternoon. Increasing synoptic-scale
ascent as the upper-level trough enters the Southern Plains looks
to support thunderstorm development late Tuesday afternoon into
Tuesday night as the dryline pushes eastward and a cold front
associated with the aforementioned surface low digs southward into
North Texas. Sufficient wind shear and instability will promote
the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms capable of all
modes of severe weather, primarily along and east of the I-35
corridor.

Showers and thunderstorms look to exit to the south Wednesday
morning as the cold front pushes through our area. A drier, cooler
airmass will usher into the region behind the front leading to a
pleasant, cooler day Wednesday with highs in the upper 60s and low
70s. Current GFS/ECMWF guidance continues to suggest the frontal
boundary will stall near the Texas Gulf Coast by midday Wednesday.
Persistent northeasterly surface winds and modest cold-air
advection will keep afternoon highs in the 60s through the end of
the work week. A deepening upper-level low near Baja California
will keep southwesterly flow aloft across the region through the
end of the week. Subtle shortwaves in the southwesterly flow aloft
as well as increasing isentropic ascent/moisture return atop of
the cool near-surface layer will lead to increased cloudiness and
greater chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday through the
weekend. The best chances for showers and thunderstorms look to
occur generally south of the I-20 corridor where the greatest
isentropic ascent and deep moisture look to reside. Rainfall
totals could really start adding up through the weekend,
especially across our southeastern zones where there is a 50-70%
chance for 2+ inches of rain and a 30-40% chance for 3+ inches of
rain through Sunday.

Langfeld

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 119 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023/
/18Z TAFs/

Concerns: Severe thunderstorms impacting the terminals between
20-02Z.

Thunderstorms are expected to erupt across the region this
afternoon and impact all airports at some point. There may be 2-3
periods of convection that move through any of the airport
terminals through this evening. Otherwise, expect south winds to
prevail at about 15 kts with higher gusts. Within the
thunderstorms, erratic strong winds and hail will be possible.

Quiet weather will prevail in the wake of the thunderstorms and
the dryline will remain near the I-35 corridor through Monday.
Some low level cigs across East Texas may sneak into the eastern
DFW airports Monday morning, but MVFR cigs are more likely at
KACT. Cigs should quickly lift by mid to late morning. The winds
on Monday will have a slight southwest component to them with the
dryline so close.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible late Monday morning near the
dryline, and these storms could be strong to severe with a hail
threat.

JLDunn

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    62  91  68  86  55 / 100  20  20  20  50
Waco                64  91  68  86  56 /  50  20  20  10  60
Paris               61  84  66  82  54 / 100  10  20  30  70
Denton              57  89  65  83  49 /  90  20  20  20  40
McKinney            61  87  66  83  52 / 100  20  20  20  50
Dallas              63  90  68  86  56 / 100  20  20  20  50
Terrell             64  87  68  83  55 / 100  20  20  20  70
Corsicana           66  88  70  85  57 /  90  20  20  10  70
Temple              65  92  68  86  55 /  50  20  20  10  60
Mineral Wells       54  92  66  91  49 /  20   5  10  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
205 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-031230-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
205 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

There is a chance of thunderstorms across the entire region this
afternoon through this evening. Severe thunderstorms are expected
with a risk for large hail, damaging winds, and possibly a few
tornadoes. An outbreak of severe weather is possible this afternoon
and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

An isolated thunderstorm or two could develop along the dryline late
Monday afternoon into Monday evening and contain large hail and
damaging wind gusts. Greater coverage of thunderstorms is expected
Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night, primarily along and east of the
I-35 corridor. All modes of severe weather will be possible.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions are expected
Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday, mainly west of I-35.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will be needed across the region today. Please use
all available reporting methods to send information to our office.