Wildfire in New Mexico, April 2, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1159 AM MDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun Apr 2 2023

Breezy to locally windy conditions are expected this afternoon in
eastern NM while more widespread strong to damaging winds arrive
Monday morning and persist through Tuesday evening. Hazardous
crosswinds, areas of blowing dust, and critical fire weather
conditions are likely both Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will
generally be above average today and tomorrow, but much cooler
temperatures arrive Tuesday and stick around through at least the
end of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun Apr 2 2023

Water vapor imagery shows a weakening upper level low over the
southwest bootheel of New Mexico. This feature will move across
southern New Mexico with no impact. Water vapor imagery also shows
the developing trough and digging upper level low over the Pacific
NW. It's actually a second upper low back over the Gulf of Alaska
that will dig into the initial low which tracks towards New Mexico
tonight into Monday.

By the end of the day Monday, this upper level low will be centered
over the Great Basin with a 300 mb jet core oriented SW to NE across
the Four Corners region. Jet core will be easily pushing 120-130kts
and by Tuesday morning this jet will move over much of NW New
Mexico. High winds extend down to 500 mb and 700 mb levels as well
so any amount of deep mixing will support high wind gusts over much
of the region. At the high end, we are probably looking at 75 mph
wind gusts in some areas. As such we upgraded the high wind watch
for western NM to a high wind warning for much of Monday. High winds
then spread over much of New Mexico Monday night into Tuesday so we
also added some more areas to the high wind watch and extended the
watch for Tuesday.

This will mark a prolonged wind event for New Mexico. This kind of
wind is certainly getting into the higher ranges and could cause
some impacts like power outages, damage to poorly built structures
and down trees in burn scar areas. Areas of blowing dust will be a
result of the winds as well and cause limited visibility. High cross
winds on I-25 could certainly cause some issues for high profile
vehicles. This will be in addition to the critical fire weather
conditions we expect to develop. We will dive into those details
more in the fire weather section of the discussion.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun Apr 2 2023

The 700 mb jet max will shift over New Mexico Monday night,
preventing winds in western and central areas from diminishing much
overnight. By Tuesday morning, mixing heights will have already
increased dramatically, allowing strong winds to spread into eastern
New Mexico. The High Wind Watch has been expanded to encompass the
middle and lower RGV and adjacent areas as well as the rest of
eastern NM for Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening.
Southwesterly wind gusts up to 75 mph are possible Tuesday afternoon
along and east of the central mountain chain. Given the recent dry
conditions on the eastern plains, areas of blowing dust creating
reduced visibility are likely.

A gusty cold front will cross the state from west to east on
Tuesday, changing winds over to westerly and dropping temperatures
in its wake. With the dry airmass in place, sub-cloud evaporation
will likely inhibit most precipitation at lower elevations, but
the northern mountains may be able to squeeze out a few inches of
snow thanks to strong orographic lifting. Tuesday's high
temperatures may be as much as 30 degrees below Monday's highs and
a few locations in the northwest may even break record daily low
maxes. Winds finally begin to diminish Tuesday night as the
surface low over eastern Colorado quickly moves off to the
northeast. It will be a very cold night, with almost the entire
CWA below freezing and many areas experiencing a hard freeze. High
temperatures will moderate as the week goes on but still remain
5-15 degrees below average in most areas through Friday.

There are some indications that moisture from the Gulf of Mexico may
make its way eastward into New Mexico late in the week. A surface
high over the central US combined with a weak disturbance over the
Baja Peninsula could generate some precipitation over the weekend,
but there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in regard to PoPs. GEFS
ensemble mean PWATs at least a half a standard deviation above
normal appear to stick around next weekend into mid-week so there
will be a prolonged period with multiple opportunities for
precipitation. Unlike the pattern we've had for most of the
winter, precipitation within this regime would favor southern and
eastern areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1150 AM MDT Sun Apr 2 2023

West and southwest winds will peak in the 25 to 35 kt range at
most terminals btwn 21Z and 00Z. Winds will taper off aft sunset
in many areas except the higher terrain where mt waves strengthen
overnight. LLWS is likely at a few terminals overnight while winds
aloft remain strong. Even stronger surface winds will occur over
a widespread area Monday with BLDU and lcl vsby reductions likely.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 308 AM MDT Sun Apr 2 2023

...PROLONGED AND WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY...

Today we are expecting critical fire weather conditions for much of
NE and E New Mexico where there will be dry air, gust winds and dry
fuels, especially fine fuels. Red Flag Warning has been issued for
east of the central mountains and east slopes of the Sangre de
Cristo mountains. Some of these areas could have 5 to 9 hours of
single digit relative humidity today.

Widespread critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop
for really all of New Mexico. New forecast data suggests slight
higher winds than yesterday's data along with lower humidity levels.
The only areas that will be marginal for critical conditions are the
northern mountains. Given how strong the winds are expected to be
and associated mixing, humidity levels could go lower than forecast.
To account for this possibility, we added the northern mountain fire
weather zones to the fire weather watch for Monday.

Additionally, these strong winds are forecast to persist overnight
into Tuesday with high wind watches needed for eastern New Mexico
Tuesday. Humidity levels recover some but not as much as we would
like to see. Since winds should be peaking Monday night into
Tuesday, we decided to keep a fire weather watch in effect for the
overnight mainly for the RGV and E NM. We will let western and
northern areas of the watch from Monday expire overnight.

These kinds of conditions are dangerous and supportive of rapid fire
growth and chaotic behavior. People should not do anything that
causes a spark or could ignite a fire. It will not be controlled.
Monday there will be anywhere from 6 to 12 hours of single digit
humidity and by Tuesday dewpoints will drop to between 5F and -5F.
While it will be colder so humidity levels may not be as low as say
Monday, the lower dewpoints and very high winds still make for a
dangerous situation should a fire develop.

Moisture levels slowly improve Wednesday through Friday of this week
but it is the winds that do us a favor and drop off below 25 knots
sustained. Areas of critical fire weather conditions will be very
localized if any at all for the end of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  65  35  67  28 /   0   0   0  30
Dulce...........................  59  28  62  22 /   0   0   5  40
Cuba............................  61  33  63  26 /   0   0   0  20
Gallup..........................  63  33  62  23 /   0   0   0  30
El Morro........................  61  31  61  22 /   0   0   0  30
Grants..........................  66  31  66  25 /   0   0   0  10
Quemado.........................  65  33  64  26 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  69  39  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  66  34  62  28 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  71  34  66  27 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  72  42  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  51  24  54  15 /   0   0   5  50
Los Alamos......................  61  37  64  31 /   0   0   0  10
Pecos...........................  62  36  65  29 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  54  33  55  30 /   0   0   0  10
Red River.......................  49  27  52  20 /   0   0   0  20
Angel Fire......................  51  28  54  20 /   0   0   0  20
Taos............................  61  29  64  26 /   0   0   0   5
Mora............................  61  36  64  28 /   0   0   0   5
Espanola........................  68  35  71  35 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe........................  63  36  66  31 /   0   0   0   5
Santa Fe Airport................  65  34  69  31 /   0   0   0   5
Albuquerque Foothills...........  70  41  73  38 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  71  39  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  73  37  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  72  38  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  75  35  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  72  38  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  74  35  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  72  39  75  36 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  74  35  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  68  40  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  71  38  74  36 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  78  40  78  42 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  63  38  66  32 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  66  37  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  67  34  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  68  33  71  31 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  64  36  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  67  36  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  68  36  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  73  46  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  65  45  65  39 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  66  33  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
Raton...........................  69  31  70  32 /   0   0   0   0
Springer........................  71  33  72  36 /   0   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  67  38  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  76  40  78  43 /   0   0   0   0
Roy.............................  72  37  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  79  42  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  75  40  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  79  44  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  79  41  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Portales........................  81  41  85  47 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  79  41  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  85  44  88  50 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  76  48  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  74  50  75  43 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening
for NMZ101-105-109-120>122.

High Wind Warning from 11 AM Monday to midnight MDT Monday night
for NMZ201-202-205-206.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ104-123-125-
126.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday evening
for NMZ104-106-123>126.

High Wind Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for
NMZ207-212-218>220-222-224-225-228>238-241.

High Wind Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday evening for
NMZ208-210-211-213>215-221-223-226-227-239-240.

&&

SHORT TERM...39
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...42