NWS Salt Lake City, UT wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 4:42 PM MST, 7 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 4:42 PM MST, 7 hours 18 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
442 PM MST Tue Feb 28 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Another significant winter storm will impact much of
the region through Wednesday evening, with impacts lingering
across southern Utah into Thursday morning. The active pattern
will continue into next week, with several relatively weak systems
expected to impact portions of the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Thursday)...With one storm ending,
another significant storm will begin later today...especially for
southern Utah. This storm will bring atypically heavy snow to
locations such as Escalante, Kanab, Springdale, Orderville and
Glendale.
Starting off, afternoon satellite and upper air analysis indicates
the shortwave trough responsible for the Monday-Tuesday storm
continues to shift east. A strengthening upper level trough is
near the Pacific Coast coincident with a stout 160kt+ jet max.
Upper level diffluence associated with this jet max combined with
PVA and southerly upslope flow will help to develop precipitation
across southern Utah this evening into tonight. By Wednesday
morning, lee cyclogenesis is expected...with a surface low
initially near Las Vegas. Meanwhile, a relatively weak surface
trough will stretch from this surface low into northeastern Utah.
As the low intensifies through the morning Wednesday and upper
level diffluence remains over the region, expect snow to continue
to develop across much of the state. As the surface low gradually
shifts eastward along the Utah/Arizona border region through
Wednesday afternoon, the 700mb front will finally shift into Utah,
bringing another forcing mechanism for additional snow to at least
central and northern Utah, while moderate to heavy precipitation
continues near the surface low across portions of central and
southern Utah.
Expect snow to gradually end overnight Wednesday across northern
and central Utah, by Thursday morning across southern Utah.
This surface low track, upslope flow and deep synoptic forcing for
heavy snow will bring atypically heavy snow to southern Utah
valleys, including Kanab, Orderville, Springdale and Glendale.
This was highlighted well on the latest EFI (EC based Extreme
Forecast Index) which showed a highly anomalous QPF/Snow forecast
through much of the Utah/NV border area from near Wendover south
and across southwestern and south central Utah.
Current expectation is snow levels will remain high enough to keep
St. George proper from seeing much snow, but all other area routes
across southern Utah will see the potential for winter driving
conditions including SR-9 through Zion NP, SR-12, US-89. Those
with travel plans through any of these routes tonight into early
Thursday should check road conditions prior to leaving.
Gusty northerly winds are expected to develop in the wake of the
front across portions of western Utah early Thursday morning into
Thursday afternoon. This may bring areas of blowing and drifting
snow. Currently have these winds handled in the winter weather
advisories and winter storm warnings.
Added winter storm warning for southwest Utah and Bryce Canyon as
well as winter weather advisories for west central Utah, the
Sanpete Valley, Castle Country, Upper Sevier River Valleys and
Glen Canyon.
So...what could go wrong with the forecast? Some portion of the
guidance envelope suggests a prolonged period of moderate snow may
develop across southern Salt Lake County and northern Utah County
Wednesday morning into Wednesday evening, which could bring higher
snow amounts to these areas. The Wasatch Front, particularly from
Ogden southward to Nephi will need to be monitored with upcoming
model runs for a potential winter weather advisory for Wednesday
morning into Wednesday evening. Similarly, Western Canyonlands may
need to be added to the suite of advisories.
.LONG TERM (After 12Z Thursday)...Onslaught of active weather
continues, though perhaps a breather for some in terms of impacts.
Brief ridging between two progressive waves sets in for Thursday,
with milder temps and dry weather for a day before the next quick
hitter moves in for Friday. Snow to the valleys of northern Utah
(including the Wasatch Front through Salt Lake County) is
expected, though accumulations remain modest at 1-4 inches
widespread. Mountains do slightly better aided by orographic
lifting in moderately unstable flow, though remain modest at 5-10
inches in favored areas, and may skirt the southern Wasatch,
putting down a scant 2-4 inches.
Wind behind Friday's system could be a concern for exposed
ridgelines as well as valleys east of the central mountain spine,
especially Castle Country, the San Rafael Swell, and the Uinta
Basin. At this time not reaching impact thresholds, but expected
to be a breezy evening and perhaps overnight period. Will continue
to monitor for the potential of downslope wind development in
Castle Country and the high country northwest of Lake Powell.
More zonal flow sets up for Saturday and leads to greatly reduced
confidence in the forecast. While QPF and POPs remain low/zero
through Saturday, the unsettled pattern could kick off localized
showers that could produce measurable accumulations across central
and northern Utah. The next trough dives in for Sunday into early
morning Monday, though ensembles slightly favor a much deeper
solution which would largely limit precipitation across much of
Utah. However, spread is broad and no one scenario stands out just
yet, so hard to lean on the deterministic output as an acceptable
answer... NBM/blended ensemble output will have to do.
Southern Utah should see a break, finally, with temperatures
moderating over the week and into the weekend, though southern
shifts in the pattern could keep temps below seasonal averages.
&&
.AVIATION...KSLC...Southwest winds will transition to southeast
during the evening with lighter speeds. Scattered snow showers are
likely around 08Z. Initially, gusty and erratic outflow winds are
likely. Snow is more likely from 12-18Z with ceilings and
visibility into IFR range or lower. Snow will taper off into the
afternoon. Winds will transition to northwest around 20Z.
.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...Southwest winds will last
through the overnight throughout southwest Wyoming and most of
Utah. Gusts exceeding 20 knots are likely in southern Utah. Rain
and snow is likely during the evening, lasting through much of the
day, with IFR or lower ceilings and visibility. Snow chances will
peak from around 12-18Z in southwest Wyoming and northern Utah
with IFR or lower ceilings and visibility likely. Gusty, erratic
outflow winds are likely initially. Scattered snow showers are
likely much of the afternoon. Conditions will generally improve
into VFR range, but lower with snow showers. Northwest winds are
expected in southwest Wyoming and northern Utah most of the
afternoon, with gusty southwest winds elsewhere through the day.
&&
.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Winter Storm Warning until 5 PM MST Wednesday for UTZ108-110-111.
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM MST Wednesday for UTZ112.
Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Thursday for UTZ113-117-125.
Winter Weather Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 5 AM MST Thursday
for UTZ115-116-118-120-126-129.
Winter Storm Warning from 8 PM this evening to 5 AM MST Thursday
for UTZ122-124-127-128.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 5 AM MST Thursday
for UTZ131.
WY...None.
&&
Kruse/Wessler/Wilson
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity