An approaching cold front interacted with strong instability creating a broken line of thunderstorms across the central South Plains into the central Rolling Plains. One of these storms became severe as it moved across King County producing a wind gust to 64 mph.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
An approaching cold front interacted with strong instability creating a broken line of thunderstorms across the central South Plains into the central Rolling Plains. One of these storms became severe as it moved across King County producing a wind gust to 64 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 11, 1:31 PM CST, 2 hours 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 231 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Upper level trough to the northeast and high pressure system to the southwest will give strong upper level westerly winds. High pressure system seems to remain stagnant while the upper level trough propagates to the east through tomorrow evening. A mid to upper level trough will develop over southern Colorado and northern New Mexico this afternoon. Cold front has moved into the northwest portions of the CWA bringing breezy northeasterly winds ranging from 10 to 20 mph. Once the front arrives, instability values will be between 1000 to 2000 J/kg. Severe thunderstorms will develop due to strong frontogenesis from strong winds aloft and forcing behind the front. Strong winds, cloud to ground lightning, and large hail are possible with these thunderstorms. Tornadoes are not likely but a non-zero chance exists especially in vicinity of any surface boundaries. Thunderstorms expected to dissipate out of the area around midnight. Following the cold front, temperatures tomorrow will be cooler with high temperatures in the lower 70s across the rolling plains and upper 60s across the South Plains with wide spread stratus. Winds will decrease into tomorrow ranging between 5 to 10 mph. In addition, winds will veer to the east from the high pressure system sitting over Kansas. Strong moisture and forcing will keep chances for rain tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 The active weather pattern will continue over the extended forecast period with chances of showers and thunderstorms lasting through the weekend along with below average temperatures. A series of weak upper level shortwave troughs will have an abundance of mid-to-upper level moisture to work with leading to nearly non-stop chances of rain and thunderstorms through the weekend. Wednesday and Thursday have the highest chances of rain and thunderstorms as jet level dynamics become more favorable for large scale lift and the atmospheric column remains very moist with a steady supply of Pacific moisture. NBM PoPs have been capped near 70 percent for Wednesday and Thursday due to uncertainty regarding where the highest coverage of precipitation will setup. For example, the last several NAM runs indicate the best precipitation coverage will be to the south and north of the forecast area. Given the very high moisture content and persistent large scale lift, localized flooding may become a concern especially on Wednesday evening going into Thursday morning. Environmental conditions do not appear to be conducive for severe weather but several strong storms may be possible given favorable vertical wind shear on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night. As for temperatures, we are looking at highs in the 70s and 80s starting on Wednesday and lasting through the weekend. Long range model guidance is in decent agreement that a stronger upper level shortwave trough will drive anther cold front through the forecast area on Friday keeping our temperatures mild and hanging on to chances of rain and thunderstorms over the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 VFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon. A cold front will move through the area late this afternoon. Following behind the front winds will become breezy and shift to the northeast. The front will aid in the development of thunderstorms at all TAF sites. Thunderstorms could be severe with damaging winds and chances of hail. MVFR conditions will impact the TAF sites after thunderstorms depart. Chance of IFR conditions but confidence is low at this time. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...10 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...10
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 TXZ021>044-121745- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 1245 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Thunderstorms are likely across the entire region later this afternoon and into the evening ahead of a strong cold front. A few storms will become supercells with an attendant threat for very large hail to baseball size, damaging winds to 70 mph, and perhaps a few tornadoes. Localized flash flooding will also be possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day through this weekend. Although severe storms are not currently expected, some storms may produce locally heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed later today.
The Lubbock radar (KLBB), 124 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:27 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Guthrie measured a wind gust of 64 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1123394.