High Wind and Strong Wind in Texas, November 30, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
541 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 424 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

An upper level trough over the Rocky Mountains and and amplifying
shortwave moving through the Texas Panhandle will support the
development of a surface low pressure system over the southern
plains today. A cold front extending southwest from this system
will work its way through Texas, reaching our area Friday
afternoon. A low-level jet has set up ahead the trough, helping
feed moisture into the area. As the shortwave moves through
northern Texas today, the low-level jet will shift further east,
and winds overhead will shift southwesterly to westerly. This wind
shift will allow drier air to move into the area, and help reduce
cloud cover.

At the surface strong southerly winds will be the dominate feature
today, especially for Cameron County, where a Wind Advisory will
likely be needed. Rain chances will remain near zero today and
tonight, except along the coast where some showers and thunderstorms
may linger this morning. Skies will gradually improve through the
day from west to east, though skies will likely remain partly cloudy
along the coast. Winds diminish this evening, and cloud cover
increases late tonight. Calmer winds and clearer skies could allow
for some overnight fog development, especially in the northern
counties. Skies remain mostly cloudy Friday as the weak cold front
moves through. Rain doesn't look to remain to our north Friday
afternoon, where better moisture and forcing will likely be present.
While some of the global models have been hinting at rain in
portions of the CWA, the CAMs have been consistently keeping the
rain to the north.

Lastly, stronger winds over the Gulf and building seas will likely
result in adverse conditions at area beaches. There is a High Risk
of Rip Currents through the period, and a high Surf advisory will
also be needed today.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 424 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

The cold front will move off the Lower Texas Coast Friday evening. A
coastal trough is then expected to develop just east of the region
and will lead to cloudy skies and low rain chances through the
weekend. The best opportunity for isolated to scattered showers and
a few thunderstorms will be along the immediate coast and over the
Gulf waters as moisture content will be slightly better. Another,
500mb trough will sweep over the Plains this weekend and push
another cold front/surge of high pressure into Deep South Texas late
Sunday into Monday. Low temperatures Friday night and Saturday night
are expected in the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Highs Saturday and
Sunday will be in the 70s. Cooler and drier air will surge into the
region early next week and should bring an end to rain chances from
over the weekend. Overnight lows Sunday night through Wednesday
night are expected to fall into the 50s and highs each day generally
in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 519 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

IFR to VLIFR conditions have been observed this morning thanks to
low clouds and fog. MFE is down to 1/4SM and fog looks to slowly
dissipate and raise to a brief IFR cloud deck shortly after
sunrise. Higher winds at BRO and HRL will keep visibilities up,
instead supporting low stratus. Conditions will gradually improve
through the day with MFE and HRL reaching VFR conditions this
afternoon, while BRO looks to remain MVFR.

Southerly winds pick up this morning, with gusty winds lasting
through the afternoon. LLWS looks likely at MFE for a few hours
this morning before winds mix to the surface.

IFR conditions look to return near the end of the period at MFE
and HRL as ceilings lower and fog development looks likely.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 424 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Now through Friday...Pressure gradients will continue to tighten
this morning, stronger winds and hazardous marine conditions to
extend into the Laguna Madre. Winds and seas look to decrease
tonight as gradients weaken ahead of an approaching cold front.

Friday night through Monday night...A cold front will push off
the Lower Texas Coast late Friday. The frontal boundary is then
expected to stall over the Gulf waters, with a potential coastal
trough developing over the weekend. This will result in light to
moderate winds and low to moderate seas through Monday. Isolated
to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible through
Sunday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             81  72  82  67 /  10   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               82  68  81  63 /  10   0  10   0
MCALLEN                 82  67  79  62 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         80  63  77  60 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      75  71  76  68 /  30   0  10   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  68  80  64 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 4 PM CST this afternoon
     for TXZ255-355.

     High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ451-454-455.

     High Surf Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ451-454-
     455.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this
     evening for GMZ130-132-135.

     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ150-155.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM CST Friday for GMZ170-175.

&&

SHORT TERM...60-BE
LONG TERM....63-KC
AVIATION...60-BE