Severe drought conditions impacted portions of western North Texas but improved by the middle of the month after beneficial rainfall was received.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
Severe drought conditions impacted portions of western North Texas but improved by the middle of the month after beneficial rainfall was received.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 28, 6:42 PM CST, 5 hours 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 642 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 ...New Short Term, Aviation... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Tonight and Wednesday/ Current satellite imagery shows widespread high clouds overhead as Pacific moisture streams into the region along southwesterly flow aloft. Increasing southerly flow and warm/moist advection will draw greater quality low-level moisture into North and Central Texas later tonight into tomorrow morning. A resultant stratus deck is expected to push northward and sprawl across much of the forecast area after midnight tonight and into Wednesday morning. This low-level cloud cover will keep overnight lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s across much of the CWA. The stratus deck is expected to remain clear of our northwestern zones tonight where temperatures are expected to drop into the low 50s. Light mist/patchy fog may develop across portions of Central Texas later tonight into Wednesday morning. Cloud cover will likely hang around for much of the day Wednesday with cooler afternoon highs in the 70s expected across much of North and Central Texas. Low pressure looks to shift into southwestern Missouri later tonight into Wednesday morning with an associated cold front extending into north-central Texas. The frontal boundary is expected to become nearly stationary as it approaches the DFW Metroplex Wednesday morning. Although a strong capping inversion will be in place, modest ascent associated with shortwave impulses in the southwesterly flow aloft and convergence along the 925-850 mb frontal zone may lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms along and south of the frontal boundary Wednesday morning and afternoon. Mid-level lapse rates around 7 degreeC/km and elevated instability greater than 1250-1500 J/kg may support a few stronger storms capable of hail and gusty winds. High-res guidance continues to highlight a zone generally along the I-20 and I-30 corridors (Eastland/Comanche Counties to DFW Metroplex to Hopkins/Delta Counties) for increased potential for more robust convection. Langfeld && .LONG TERM... /Issued 159 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023/ /Wednesday Night through Tuesday/ A potent upper level trough will dig and close off over the southwestern US Wednesday night and quickly march eastward toward Texas. Southerly low level flow will already be established Wednesday night and moisture/instability will be surging northward into North Texas. Models indicate an axis of isentropic ascent will exist across Central and East Texas resulting in a few showers/storms early Thursday morning into the midday hours. Since this convection will be rooted above the boundary layer, the instability available aloft will be more limited and therefore just some showers or a few weak thunderstorms are expected. Lows Wednesday night will be unseasonably warm with temperatures in the 60s for most areas of North/Central Texas. The main story in the forecast is the severe weather threat Thursday afternoon and evening. While the upper level system is a potent one, it certainly isn't as impressive as the one that crossed West Texas and Oklahoma on Sunday. This one however will take a more southerly track and will have a lot more instability to work with, meaning North and Central Texas will have a better chance of severe convection. There are still some details regarding the timing and positioning of the features that will need to be resolved before getting a good handle on the precise threat area and severe hazard types. We continue to favor the slower (and farther west) solutions which means almost all of North/Central Texas has some severe threat. Having said that, the shallower boundary layer moisture depth across the western zones means convective initiation before the dryline/Pacific Front moves through is more uncertain and therefore PoPs will be lower in the west. By the time this surface boundary reaches the I-35 corridor, we do expect a more solid line of convection, but because this is forecast to occur right around 6 pm, the PoPs aren't greater than 80 percent due to the timing uncertainty (i.e. which verification period will the rainfall occur?). Concerning the severe weather threat(s): The primary threat early in the event will be large hail due to steep lapse rates and strong bulk shear and a more isolated convective/supercellular mode. Once the convection congeals into a line the threat will shift to primarily damaging winds with brief/embedded tornadoes. It should be noted that the tornado threat appears less impressive than prior model runs. One thing about the synoptic setup that is not favorable for tornadoes is the flat/zonal 850mb pattern across the southeastern US. A more favorable tornado setup would feature ridging in this area. The implications are that this will cause the 850mb cyclone to develop eastward very rapidly, and out of phase with the main upper level trough and its forcing. As a result the low level jet will shift east into the Lower Mississippi Valley Thursday afternoon causing hodographs across North and Central Texas to lose their cyclonic shape before the forcing and boundary arrive. These more disorganized wind profiles will feature veering winds, then backing winds, and then veering winds again as height increases. While veer-back-veer profiles still can support severe weather, and even tornadoes, they don't tend to support the strong or long-track tornadoes and can inhibit low level mesocyclone intensification for very large hail production. Still given the parameter space, we'll need to advertise all severe hazards with this event since a brief/weak tornado is still a pretty big deal if it impacts your location regardless if it's delivered via supercell or QLCS. Convection should rapidly end from west to east during the evening and overnight hours with strong west and northwest winds arriving in its wake. Have lowered the NBM wind speed forecast at night going closer to MOS which advertises sustained speeds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph. These strong winds and dry air (and probably more dust from West Texas!) Thursday evening mean that the western zones may have a brief window of critical fire conditions. Given this window is brief and near/after sunset we will forego any fire weather watch at this time. Friday will be cooler as temps drop into the mid 30s to mid 40s for lows and highs will be in the mid 50s north to mid 60s south. There will be a gradual warm up over the weekend and into next week and the winds will even lay low for an extended period as the rapid fire ejection of upper troughs takes a hiatus. TR.92 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will persist into this evening with south-southwest surface winds generally below 10-12 knots prevailing through much of the TAF period. Southerly flow will draw greater quality low- level moisture and a resultant MVFR stratus deck northward into North and Central Texas later tonight. MVFR ceilings look to reach KACT around 07Z-08Z and the D10 sites around 10Z-11Z. A period of IFR ceilings may be possible at KACT in the 12Z-16Z timeframe Wednesday morning. Light mist/patchy fog may develop across portions of Central Texas later tonight into Wednesday morning possibly approaching KACT. MVFR ceilings will persist through Wednesday morning and into early Wednesday afternoon before VFR conditions return around 20Z-21Z. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. High-res model guidance continues to highlight the potential for more robust convection near the D10 sites Wednesday morning in the vicinity of an elevated frontal boundary. Thus, VCTS was included for the D10 sites from 13Z-16Z. Langfeld && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 78 62 78 41 / 5 40 20 70 50 Waco 65 79 65 80 44 / 10 40 20 60 40 Paris 58 74 61 74 41 / 0 50 30 80 80 Denton 56 75 58 78 39 / 0 30 20 70 50 McKinney 58 77 61 77 41 / 5 40 20 80 60 Dallas 62 79 63 77 42 / 5 40 20 70 50 Terrell 62 77 64 77 42 / 5 50 20 80 60 Corsicana 66 79 66 78 45 / 10 40 20 70 60 Temple 64 82 64 81 44 / 10 30 20 50 40 Mineral Wells 53 76 58 79 38 / 5 20 10 60 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 537 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-011200- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 537 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Wednesday morning into Wednesday afternoon. A few stronger storms may develop with hail and gusty winds the primary hazards. A greater threat for severe storms exists Thursday, with all modes of severe weather possible for much of North and Central Texas. The greatest threat exists along and east of the I-35 corridor. Behind the front Thursday night, gusty winds are expected with gusts to near 45 mph possible. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe drought conditions affected portions of the county but improved by the middle of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1088751.