Scattered thunderstorms developed late in the afternoon on the caprock in response to a potent short wave trough approaching the area and strong surface based instability. Very hot and dry near surface conditions allowed some thunderstorms to produce severe winds.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms developed late in the afternoon on the caprock in response to a potent short wave trough approaching the area and strong surface based instability. Very hot and dry near surface conditions allowed some thunderstorms to produce severe winds. A swath of severe winds occurred over central Lubbock County which produced tree damage at the Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center. A thunderstorm over Crosby County caused damage to trees, power lines, and a roof. Decaying showers led to severe wind gusts near Levelland (Hockley County). A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site south of Levelland measured a wind gust of 60 mph. At the same time, an AWOS station at Levelland Municipal Airport measured a gust to 60 mph.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 10, 9:04 PM CST, 43 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 1004 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 959 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 We've updated the forecast to reduce PoPs and the severe threat for the remainder of the night to account for the current relative dearth of activity. However, with the upper wave moving overhead, decent moisture, and a few boundaries roaming the forecast area, we can't rule out some continued and additional shower and t-storm activity through the early morning hours. The severe threat is low, but some strong to near-severe wind gusts will be possible, especially with any decaying t-storms. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to hold on across portions of Cochran and Yoakum counties, although current radar indicates them weakening. The main event will begin later this afternoon as a potent upper shortwave approaches the region from the northwest. Model SBCAPE values remain similar to previous runs, peaking around 2500 J/kg on average. High-res guidance indicates storms developing near the TX/NM border late this afternoon and becoming more widespread (possibly forming into a squall line) as they track eastward through the evening. A few storms may become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats. Hail would be the primary concern early on with more discrete storms, then wind would become the main concern thereafter as storms form into more of a line. Much of the severe threat would be over by midnight as they exit the forecast area, however some non-severe storms may continue over portions of the South Plains through early Tuesday morning. Tuesday generally looks to be a much quieter day as a ridge builds to the southwest. A few isolated thunderstorms may develop during the early afternoon hours under a weak shortwave, however conditions overall will be much quieter, with mostly sunny skies and triple-digit heat returning. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 232 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 The return of the heat remains the focus for the middle part of the week, with somewhat cooler temperatures and occasional opportunities for convection late week into the weekend. The upper ridge currently centered near El Paso is progged to amplify modestly while also expanding its influence eastward over West Texas through Wednesday and Thursday. Building heights/thicknesses, coupled with forecast 850 mb temperatures pushing 32+ Celsius, all point to hot temperatures. We did mix in a bit of the 75% percentile NBM for the high temps both Wednesday and Thursday, since it appears the higher side of guidance is the proper way to lean. This generally results in highs between 100 and 107 degrees for the entire CWA, "coolest" across the southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains and hottest over the the southern South Plains into the Rolling Plains and southeast Texas Panhandle. If these temperatures verify, a Heat Advisory will be needed for the central and southern South Plains. In addition, there is a weak signal in some of the NWP that the heat, in combination with a subtle uptick in mid-level moisture, could fuel late-day high-based convection across our northwestern zones Wednesday and/or Thursday. However, confidence in measurable precipitation in this pattern isn't particularly high and have accepted the NBM PoPs which generally reside around 10%. Should a storm manage to take root, spotty rainfall, lightning and strong, gusty outflows will accompany the most robust activity. Late week into the weekend a large closed low is projected to sink southward through central Canada before pivoting toward the Great Lakes early next week. This will result in broad cyclonic flow taking up residence over much of the central and eastern CONUS while the center of the upper high retrogrades into the Desert Southwest. This will put the South Plains region on the southern fringe of west- northwest to northwest flow aloft. At a minimum, this will result in modest cooling, with highs generally expected to reside in the 90s by the weekend. The pattern change will also renew storm chances, at least across the northern zones, and perhaps for much/all of the area if the mid-level flow is more northwesterly than currently forecast. If we are really lucky (for those wanting cooler temperatures and better storm chances), we could even see a frontal zone edge into the region this weekend, though at the moment the 12Z operational runs of the ECMWF, GFS and Canadian stall the front to our north and northeast. Obviously, if the front does manage to move in, it will provide cooler temperatures and higher storm chances than are currently reflected in the gridded deterministic forecast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 637 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 VFR conditions will prevail through this TAF period. While confidence continues for thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of KPVW and KLBB around 02Z, and KCDS around 04Z. A period of strong winds and/or reduced visibility will be possible with these storms. With the passing of these storms, VFR conditions will return and continue for the rest of the period, although there remains uncertainty of developing stratus in the early morning. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...33 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...12
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Lubbock TX 958 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 TXZ021>044-120300- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 958 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight into early Tuesday morning, mainly across areas west of the Interstate 27 and Highway 87 corridors. Severe weather is unlikely, however, some of the activity could produce strong to near severe wind gusts. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. High temperatures will approach Heat Advisory levels, near 105 degrees, on Wednesday and Thursday, mainly across southern portions of the South Plains. Thunderstorm chances may return to the far southwestern Texas Panhandle by Wednesday or Thursday evening, but are more likely across parts or much of the area Friday into the weekend. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
655 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023
TXZ043-110030-
Kent TX-
655 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Kent County
through 730 PM CDT...
At 655 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles east of Lake Alan Henry, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clairemont.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3297 10102 3313 10095 3321 10054 3296 10053
3297 10100
TIME...MOT...LOC 2355Z 263DEG 22KT 3304 10088
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MCSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1034 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023
TXZ036-110400-
Crosby TX-
1034 PM CDT Mon Jul 10 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Crosby County
through 1100 PM CDT...
At 1033 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ralls, or 8 miles west of Crosbyton, moving southeast at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Crosbyton, White River Lake, Ralls, Lorenzo and Caprock.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
&&
LAT...LON 3368 10154 3381 10123 3369 10104 3359 10104
3343 10110 3339 10139 3340 10143
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 322DEG 27KT 3364 10138
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
MCThe Lubbock radar (KLBB), 52 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 03:48 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind, 1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A cooperative weather observer reported wind damage to trees, power lines, and a roof in the city of Crosbyton.
A swath of severe winds occurred across central Lubbock County. Strong straight line winds produced widespread tree damage near the Texas Tech University Health Sciences Center. A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Wolfforth measured a maximum severe wind gust of 76 mph. A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet on the campus of Texas Tech University measured a wind gust of 63 mph.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Spur measured a wind gust of 68 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1104485, 1104491, 1104486, 1104488.