A rollover accident sparked a wildfire along Interstate 70 in eastern Utah, east of Cisco.
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The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A rollover accident sparked a wildfire along Interstate 70 in eastern Utah, east of Cisco.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 10, 10:38 AM MST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 1138 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday) Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms are blossoming early this morning across northeast Utah ahead of this rather robust shortwave moving through the Great Basin. There are some isolated thunderstorms also across the central portions of the CWA, particularly Montrose to Paonia. Plenty of lift is indicated in the Potential Vorticity (PVU) fields, mainly across northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this morning, transitioning towards the central and southern portions of western Colorado by late this morning into the afternoon. This is also evident when looking at low and mid level water vapor imagery that depicts this convection well. In addition, lapse rates steepen to 9C/km this morning into the afternoon with a bit of mid level convergence along this shortwave axis. This is a quick moving wave but it is packing a punch as it tracks across with enough instability and lift to allow for early morning convection and thunderstorms. The axis of this shortwave is already projected to be on the Front Range by late afternoon, so expect an early downturn in convective activity after 00Z (6 pm MDT). There is also a subtle 50 kt jet streak associated with this shortwave that seems to generate the best lift this morning. Gusty outflow winds and lightning appear the main concerns with this convection, favoring northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this morning and transitioning to the central and southern portions of western Colorado late this morning into the afternoon. By this afternoon, we could have some gusty west winds on the backside of this shortwave which could result in some localized critical fire weather conditions. Overall though, winds today look marginal with localized critical fire weather conditions and winds lessening in intensity by early evening as the shortwave exits and convection favors areas east of the divide by this point in time. Very dry air is evident on the low and mid level water vapor imagery pushing across SoCal into southern Nevada, which looks to move in behind this shortwave allowing for the quick downturn in convection by early evening. There were some questions as to how much shower activity would occur this morning into the afternoon with this shortwave, given the NBM and most blended guidance was continuing to underplay the potential for showers and convection with very low PoPs. However, the dynamics and instability present would seem to indicate that the likelihood of PoPs was higher than the blends would have you believe as evidenced by what is currently happening. Increased PoPs quite a bit like the previous couple of shifts by using 90th percentile as a starting point and blending in with some of the downscale NAM and hi-res WRF models that seemed to be at least picking up on something in order to help boost coverage of PoPs and storm chances across the area this morning into the afternoon. By Tuesday, the flow will turn more zonal as the ridge flattens and the stronger jet remains north of the CWA across the Idaho and Wyoming. Conditions will continue to be hot and dry with the north potentially feeling the effects of the upper level jet as deeper mixing is possible up here with a bit breezier winds. Across the south, a little elevated moisture moves across southwest Colorado which some hi res models are picking up on isolated convection Tuesday afternoon over the San Juans. Still looks like gusty outflow winds and lightning the primary concerns. Overall though, breezy at times but winds still appear marginal and not widespread enough to warrant any fire weather highlights at this moment. Localized critical fire weather conditions are still possible, favoring the north due to the closer proximity to the stronger jet. Temperatures today will be slightly cooler than yesterday given the increased cloud cover and storm activity associated with the passing shortwave, although still hot and above normal. In fact this cloud cover is resulting in very mild low temperatures this morning compared to previous nights. Tuesday will see highs creep back up a few degrees, with near triple digit heat in the Grand Valley and low triple digits across the lower desert valleys of east-central Utah and southeast Utah. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday) Issued at 405 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Most areas will continue to experience hot and dry conditions during the extended period. From Tuesday night through Thursday high pressure will be centered to the south largely hindering moisture advection into the area. However, models do hint at thunderstorms developing over northern Arizona and northwest New Mexico underneath the dome of high pressure. Latest model solutions suggested outflow winds from this activity will raise low level moisture levels over southwest Colorado which may lead to isolated thunderstorms over the San Juan Mountains during the afternoon/evening Wednesday and Thursday. Thereafter, an anomalously deep low pressure system over central Canada is progged to move to the Great Lakes region causing the high to the south to retrograde westward. This pattern shift is expected to cause flow aloft to shift to the northwest bringing drying to the south. Consequently, showers and thunderstorm chances this weekend become unlikely. Deep afternoon mixing will continue to generate just enough wind during peak heating to raise wildland fire concerns throughout the period as temperatures are expected to run several degrees above normal while minimum relative humidity runs in the single digits and lower teens. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon) Issued at 1138 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023 Isolated showers and thunderstorms continue to form mainly over the southern and central Colorado mountains with KTEX the most probable airfield to see a passing storm through 20Z. Impacts could be gusts to 30 mph but this a low probability. Gust to 25 mph will become more widespread this afternoon with heating of the day in the wake of system moving across Colorado. Otherwise VFR conditions will hold over the next 24 hours. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...MDA LONG TERM...NL AVIATION...GJT
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 420 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-111030- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 420 AM MDT Mon Jul 10 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will favor northeast Utah and northwest Colorado this morning, transitioning to the central and southern portions of western Colorado by late morning into the afternoon. Strong outflow winds to 50 mph are possible with these storms along with potential fire starts. Thunderstorm activity is expected to come to an end by late afternoon and early evening prior to sunset. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Hot and dry conditions will persist through the week with the potential for breezy afternoon winds and at least localized critical fire weather conditions each day. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The I-70 MM217 Fire began in mid July due to a spark from a rollover accident along the interstate. The accident occurred east of Cisco near the Colorado/Utah border. It grew to 1,802 acres before being contained a couple of days later.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Utah in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Utah, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1101961.