Dust Storm and Hail in Texas, February 26 to 27, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1141 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 900 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Quick update coming with the expiration of the Dense Fog Advisory
and the addition of a shower mention into the morning forecast.
Areas of fog persist across areas of the South Plains, but
anything dense has been reduced to small patches. Warm, moist
ascent in the warm advection zone over the forecast area is
resulting in some isolated showers, and that activity will likely
persist as it moves quickly eastward. Will insert a slight chance
mention across roughly the southeastern third of the forecast
area. No other changes at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 447 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Upper air analysis as of 09z depicts a potent closed upper low
centered over southern CA with a broad zone of southwesterly upper
flow over West Texas associated with a weakening upper ridge axis
over the central CONUS. South-southwesterly surface to 850mb layer
flow continues along with strong positive theta-e advection with
surface dewpoints progged to continue rising into the lower 50s
through the remainder of this morning. Expansive low cloud cover
will remain over the majority of the region this morning in addition
to fairly widespread fog which will remain most concentrated on the
Caprock before dissipating by mid-morning.

The deep upper low will accelerate eastward this morning, eventually
opening and obtaining a slight negative tilt as it ejects into the
central plains while attempting to phase with a separate shortwave
trough axis centered over the PacNW. Guidance remains in very good
agreement with the speed and track of the upper low as it ejects
northeastward on a path favorable for very strong winds and
potential severe weather across our area, with each area of concern
discussed separately in the corresponding section below.

[Severe weather potential]: Robust low level moisture advection will
continue into the early afternoon hours as a warm front over the Big
Country shifts northward over the Rolling Plains into SW Oklahoma.
Surface dewpoints are progged to rise into the mid to upper 50s
across the Rolling Plains, with 60F dewpoints not out of the
question by early afternoon. Of note will be the persistence of low
level cloud cover which will limit boundary layer destabilization
beneath a persistent capping inversion. Gradually veering surface
flow west of the Caprock escarpment will sharpen a dryline by
early afternoon, however the aforementioned inversion and still-
weak upper forcing is expected to present enough inhibition to
prevent convective development before 3 PM across the entire
region. Things begin to change during the late afternoon as a
120kt 500mb jet pivots overhead, with broad upper diffluence
spreading over the region as a strong Pacific cold front races
eastward. Thunderstorms are expected to develop during the late
afternoon or early evening as the cold front overtakes the dryline
with individual convective elements quickly growing upscale into
a fast-moving squall line during the evening.

While confidence is high that initial convective development will
occur near I-27, there is still notable uncertainty regarding how
far this line of storms will extend southward. Expectation is that
stronger capping will keep storms confined generally north of a line
from Lubbock to Guthrie, perhaps even farther north. The very
impressive kinematics of the broader environment along with
extraordinarily large values of effective shear exceeding 80kt will
allow these storms to become severe. Instability will be relatively
meager with MUCAPEs struggling to exceed 1000 J/kg, with the
somewhat overwhelming shear resulting in the expectation that the
main threat will be the potential for very strong and damaging wind
gusts to 80 mph. There is a nonzero threat of large hail as well,
but the linear nature of the convection combined with the limited
instability suggests this threat will be much more isolated. It is
also worth noting the impressive low level helicity values
particularly across the SE TX Panhandle courtesy of backed surface
flow coincident with the development of a weak meso-low. However,
the expected lack of discrete convection and the anticipated
elevated nature of the advancing line of storms limits the potential
for tornadoes within the forecast area. Storms will quickly exit the
area as the front surges eastward late this evening.

[High Winds]: High confidence remains in a high wind event across
the entire area this afternoon into tonight. As the upper low
approaches the Four Corners region late this morning, intense lee-
side surface cyclogenesis over SE Colorado will result in rapid
pressure falls and intensification of gradient winds beginning early
this afternoon. Initial strong southwest winds this afternoon will
intensify even further as the Pacific front surges eastward with
extremely strong west winds expected along and behind FROPA.
Guidance continues to depict a 60+ kt 850mb speed max beneath the
500mb jet core, with anticipated deep post-frontal mixing resulting
in wind gusts to 75 mph possible across the Caprock in addition to
sustained wind speeds between 35 and 50 mph. Winds will be slightly
delayed and a bit weaker off the Caprock owing to a later frontal
passage and less-robust mixing, however wind gusts to 60 mph are
still expected and therefore the High Wind Watch has been upgraded
to a High Wind Warning across the entire area. Another major concern
is the potential for significant visibility reductions from blowing
dust. The more organized westerly wind surge associated with the
Pacific front may result in a coherent wall of dust originating in
New Mexico and moving east through the remainder of the region
during the evening. Expect very hazardous driving conditions during
the afternoon and evening given very strong winds and the potential
for dangerous reductions in visibility associated with blowing dust.
Given the very strong winds, elevated fire weather conditions are
possible, however will be significantly reduced by moist fuel
states. See the fire weather section below for further details.

All things considered, a very active weather day for West Texas with
a wide variety of hazards. Winds will gradually weaken late tonight
as the surface low exits northeastward, though breezy conditions
will persist into Monday morning with low temperatures tonight
fairly close to seasonal normals. /DWK

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 447 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

In the wake of the above mentioned system our weather will become
much quieter as nearly zonal flow remains in place over the forecast
area through the middle of this week. This will keep Lee troughing
in place with a series of weak surface lows expected to move from
southeastern Colorado into the Plains. This will lead to westerly
breezes and much drier surface air moving into the forecast area
setting the stage for several days of at least elevated fire weather
concerns and more details on this can be found in the fire weather
discussion below. With downsloping westerly winds, temperatures will
also be on the rebound back into the 60s and 70s.

A weak shortwave will move north of the forecast area on Wednesday
ahead of a deepening low diving south into California. This initial
shortwave will bring a weak cold front into the area knocking high
temperatures down a few degrees on Wednesday. A bigger cool down
will come on Thursday as a cold front dives south into the forecast
area. At the same time the aforementioned deepening low will be
moving across the forecast area as well. There continues to be some
timing and location differences with this storm system which will
effect our chances at precipitation. Currently there seems to be
enough support that there will be enough moisture in place across
the forecast area for at least some light precipitation. Depending
on the timing of the cold front this may be in the form of some snow
however temperatures should warm above freezing during the late
morning limiting the potential for any accumulations. This front
should also have some stronger winds associated with it which may
approach Wind Advisory criteria. /WI

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1136 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

A very dynamic storm system moving across the Four Corners region
today and across the southern/central High Plains tonight will
affect the terminals with extremely windy conditions this
afternoon to early morning. Winds are already on the increase
which will help scour out the stratus this early in the forecast
period with conditions briefly becoming VFR. However, with wind
speeds increasing to 35+ kts sustained, blowing dust will reduce
visibility to MVFR category for an extended period, especially at
KLBB and KPVW. A brief period of thunder is also expected, mainly
at KCDS, although KLBB and KPVW could be very near the initiation
area late this afternoon. Some decrease in wind speeds and
visibility can be expected late tonight, although breezy to windy
conditions are expected to persist through the TAF period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 447 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

Very strong winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions
across the far southwestern TX Panhandle and much of the South
Plains this afternoon. Despite the intensity of the winds, above
normal fuel moisture combined with morning fog, drizzle, and cloud
cover will mitigate fire weather concerns significantly. Analysis
from the Texas Forest Service points to above normal fuel moisture
and ERC values below the 50th percentile across the majority of the
region. Even with the above average fuel moisture, the potential for
fire growth will be enhanced by the strong winds, and a Fire Danger
Statement has been issued for the far southwestern TX Panhandle and
most of the South Plains from 1 PM until 9 PM.

This event will help to dry out the fuels though and as warmer,
drier, and breezier conditions continue through the first half of
this week more elevated to near-critical fire weather conditions
will be possible each afternoon and evening through Thursday. It currently
appears that Tuesday will be the peak fire weather day as
relative humidity values fall to near 10 percent with sustained
southwesterly winds around 25 mph.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning until 2 AM CST Monday for TXZ021>024-027>030-
033>036-039>042.

High Wind Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 2 AM CST Monday
for TXZ025-026-031-032-037-038-043-044.

&&

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....58
AVIATION...07

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
919 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

TXZ021>044-271530-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
919 AM CST Sun Feb 26 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

High winds will develop across all of the South Plains area this
afternoon and evening. A High Wind Warning is in effect for much of
the extreme Southern Texas Panhandle, the South Plains, and western
portions of the Rolling Plains from noon until 2 AM CST Monday where
sustained winds of 35 to 55 mph and gusts up to 75 mph are expected.
A High Wind Warning is also in effect for the eastern Rolling Plains
and the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle from 3 PM until 2 AM
CST Monday where sustained winds from 30 to 45 mph with gusts to 65
mph are expected. These high winds will result in widespread reduced
visibility from blowing dust and make travel on north-south oriented
roads difficult for high profile vehicles.

Thunderstorms are expected to develop late this afternoon along the
I-27 corridor and then quickly race off to the northeast. Some
thunderstorms may become severe, especially across the extreme
southeastern Texas Panhandle. The main threat from these thunderstorms
will be damaging straight line wind gusts up to 80 mph and hail up
to one inch in diameter.

Elevated fire weather conditions are also expected this afternoon
and evening across the extreme southwestern Texas Panhandle and most
of the South Plains. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect for this
area from 1 PM until 9 PM CST as relative humidity values fall to
between 20 and 30 percent.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Elevated to near critical fire weather conditions will be possible
Monday through Thursday due to breezy winds and low relative
humidity values.

A light rain/snow mix may be possible across the extreme
southwestern Texas Panhandle Thursday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and early this
evening.