NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 26, 5:11 AM MST, 3 hours 49 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Feb 26, 5:11 AM MST, 3 hours 49 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
511 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 141 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2023
Hold on everybody as today brings strong and potentially damaging
winds to the Borderland. The next Pacific storm system will track
across the region, with strong winds, a cold front, and chances
for generally light mountain snow and lowland rain. A high wind
warning is in effect for most of the area, with winds of 40 to 70
mph and area wide blowing dust expected. Areas mountain could see
from a half inch to three inches of snow today. The storm exits
quickly this evening, with cool but fair weather to start the week
for Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday and Thursday bring more strong
winds, cooler conditions, and chances for rain and snow as yet
another storm system moves in.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 141 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2023
...SHORT TERM...Today and tonight...
Satellite this morning shows a strong upper level low spinning over
SoCal. Healthy moisture is being wrapped into the low, and brining
rain/snow to AZ. This low will continue eastward, progressing fairly
quickly. It will become more negatively tilted once it reaches the
NM/AZ border later this morning. Composite analysis of the
GFS/NAM/ECMWF show good agreement in the organization of this low
remaining in tact as it moves across the CWA Sunday. There is also
good agreement on the strength of the low persisting as it moves
over, with 500 mb temps ~ -30C in the core. A strong surface cold
front associated with the low will reach Luna County by ~3 PM and El
Paso/Las Cruces by 4/5 PM. Right on top of this front is a very
strong LLJ, with 700 mb winds (southwest) around 60 to 70kts. As the
front moves over southern NM and far west TX, there is high
confidence in most areas seeing sustained winds of around 30 to 40
mph will be seen as well as gusts up to 50 to 65 mph as stronger
winds from the LLJ descend down ahead of the frontal boundary. A High
Wind Warning is out for most of NM and far west TX for Sunday
afternoon because of these very strong winds. Winds ahead of the
boundary will be southwest, which leads to high confidence in
areawide blowing dust for most of the Rio Grande Valley, Luna
County, southern Grant County, and the lowlands of Otero County.
With these strong of winds, dust channeling will likely be seen.
Visibilities in these channels could drop to 2 SM or lower. The
areawide blowing dust should reduce visibilities to 2-4 SM.
Air near the surface is still very dry this morning. The moisture
wrapped in this low will be greatest for areas west of the
continental divide, giving low chances for any precipitation
reaching the ground for lowland areas east of the divide. There are
moderate chances for light snow in the higher terrain (especially
Gila Region and Sacramento Mountains), however accumulations will be
light. The greatest accumulations will be in the Pinos Altos and
Black Range, where 1-3 inches is expected.
West winds will start to diminish around 7 PM for most of the lowland
areas west of the Rio Grande, becoming calm near midnight. West
winds over the Sacramento Mountains and highlands of Hudspeth County
will remain elevated through early Monday morning. Temperatures will
be around 5 to 10 degrees colder than normal Sunday night, with wind
chills dropping into the low 20s in Hudspeth County and teens/single
digits in the Sacramento Mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 141 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2023
Monday brings a return to more tranquil weather conditions as
today's storm system tracks away out into the Central Plains. We
will come under a deep and dry zonal flow pattern with lesser
winds and clouds. Monday will be a slightly cooler day behind
today's cold front passage. Tuesday will bring slight warming,
with temperatures back above normal. However we will begin to
tighten pressure gradients and drop a jet overhead, in advance of
the next Pacific storm system. Thus we will see a dry, war, and
breezy afternoon. This will elevate fire weather conditions a bit.
Wednesday and Thursday bring our next windy period as the system
approaches WED and passes THU. Both days will be quite windy
across the region. Wednesday will be dry, warm, and windy with
SW-W winds in the 35-55 mph range. The storm system will still be
well west, located over Las Vegas, NM. Wednesday night the upper
low will track across N AZ, pulling a cold front to the AZ/NM
line, with precipitation beginning to spill E into W NM. Having a
more northern continental trajectory, this system brings cooler
air and thus snow levels dive sharply with the front to desert
floor levels as the front pushes east across the area through the
Thursday morning hours. Winds will turn to W with the front, and
then NW behind the front. Speeds will continue in the 35-55 mph
range with higher gusts. This system is starved for moisture just
like today's so despite the potential for more widespread areas of
rain and snow WED night through THU afternoon, amounts look to be
quite light. The Gila could see 1-3", the SACs 1-2", and the
lowlands trace to 0.5". Thursday will be the coldest day of the
forecast package, and Friday morning the coldest morning.
The system exits rapidly late Thursday afternoon with drier and
cooler air filling in from the northwest. Precip will quickly end
and skies will clear. Winds will drop off throughout the evening.
Upper-level ridging will build over the southwest Friday through
the weekend for warming temperatures each day. Winds will remain
much lighter with the ridge in place keeping pressure gradients
relaxed.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 433 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2023
VFR conditions through ~20Z. Strong southwest winds will begin to
strengthen around 16-18Z at most terminals. Likely widespread BLDU
will reduce visibilities to around 3-4SM with intermittent 1-3SM.
Strong winds will be around 30-45 mph with gusts up to 70 mph
during the peak. Peak winds will be as the FROPA moves through,
which it will reach KELP around 22/23Z. Winds will slowly diminish
after sunset, but remain gusty over KELP through 10Z. VFR
conditions should return around sunset.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 141 AM MST Sun Feb 26 2023
Unsettled weather for today as very strong southwest/west winds will
impact the region this afternoon. Southwest winds of 35 to 45 mph
with gusts up to 65 mph are likely for the lowlands as a cold front
moves through this afternoon. A low level jet will be responsible
for these strong winds, which will keep southwest winds in the
higher terrain around 35 to 50 mph with gusts up to 70 mph Sunday
morning through Sunday night. Moderate confidence with light snow
chances for the higher terrain (snow levels are 6,500 ft), with
accumulations remaining below 3 inches. Best chances for wetting
rains in the lowlands will be west of the continental divide, as
there is drier air near the surface for east of the divide. RH
values will increase as the front passes and behind the front (with
cooler temps), which is where the strongest winds will be. This
makes for near critical fire conditions ahead of the front,
especially in southern Otero and TX FWZ055 & FWZ056.
Winds will diminish after sunset tonight for most areas west of the
Rio Grande Valley, with winds east remaining elevated through Monday
morning.
Early next week zonal flow will establish over the region, making
winds aloft southwesterly. As mixing heights rise in the afternoon,
southwest winds will downslope off the Sierra Madres brining warm
and dry air to the region. Winds will be breezy Monday afternoon,
however Tuesday afternoon winds aloft strengthen ahead of another
upper level system. This will lead to Red Flag conditions for most
of NM FWZ112, TX FWZ055 & FWZ056 Tuesday afternoon as min RH values
are around 10% to 15% and afternoon west winds are 25 to 35 mph
with possible gusts up to 40 mph.
The next system starts to approach AZ Wednesday, brining more windy
conditions to the area but slightly more moisture near the surface
as well. This will keep Red Flag conditions mostly within TX
FWZ055/056 Wednesday afternoon. Better chances for widespread
precipitation Thursday morning will increase humidity near the
surface. West winds will remain winds Thursday, with cooler
temperatures settling in behind the system.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso 67 32 65 38 / 10 0 0 0
Sierra Blanca 72 29 61 37 / 0 0 0 0
Las Cruces 61 27 63 34 / 20 0 0 0
Alamogordo 62 24 61 35 / 30 10 0 0
Cloudcroft 41 17 39 28 / 60 0 0 0
Truth or Consequences 54 25 61 34 / 30 0 0 0
Silver City 43 23 51 31 / 90 0 0 0
Deming 54 25 61 29 / 50 0 0 0
Lordsburg 49 22 58 29 / 80 0 0 0
West El Paso Metro 64 31 62 38 / 10 0 0 0
Dell City 72 27 66 32 / 10 0 0 0
Fort Hancock 76 30 68 36 / 0 0 0 0
Loma Linda 62 27 57 36 / 0 0 0 0
Fabens 72 30 65 36 / 0 0 0 0
Santa Teresa 61 27 62 33 / 10 0 0 0
White Sands HQ 61 30 62 39 / 20 0 0 0
Jornada Range 57 24 62 34 / 20 0 0 0
Hatch 56 24 64 35 / 30 0 0 0
Columbus 57 27 64 33 / 20 0 0 0
Orogrande 63 26 63 35 / 20 0 0 0
Mayhill 54 25 55 35 / 30 0 0 0
Mescalero 51 20 49 31 / 70 0 0 0
Timberon 50 20 49 28 / 30 0 0 0
Winston 46 22 55 33 / 60 0 0 0
Hillsboro 51 22 61 36 / 50 0 0 0
Spaceport 55 22 63 34 / 30 0 0 0
Lake Roberts 43 17 51 26 / 100 0 0 0
Hurley 48 22 56 29 / 70 0 0 0
Cliff 49 14 59 20 / 90 0 0 0
Mule Creek 41 22 51 28 / 90 0 0 0
Faywood 48 25 56 34 / 70 0 0 0
Animas 50 23 62 29 / 70 0 0 0
Hachita 51 23 62 30 / 50 0 0 0
Antelope Wells 52 25 64 34 / 30 0 0 0
Cloverdale 44 28 57 33 / 60 0 0 0
&&
.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MST this
evening for TXZ418-419-423-424.
High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight MST tonight
for TXZ420>422.
NM...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MST this
evening for NMZ402-403-406>413.
Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MST this evening
for NMZ401-404-405.
High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight MST tonight
for NMZ414>417.
&&
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM....99
AVIATION...31-Dhuyvetter