Tennessee, 2023

Drought in Tennessee, December 1 to 31, 2023

December 1 to 31, 2023 · NWS HUN · 3 events in 3 counties and zones

S. Drought Monitor slowly showed improvement through the month of December, beginning the month with the entire CWFA included in Extreme Drought (D3) Conditions for all 14 counties in Northern Alabama and Southern Middle TN.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
3

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS HUN wrote it up.

The U.S. Drought Monitor slowly showed improvement through the month of December, beginning the month with the entire CWFA included in Extreme Drought (D3) Conditions for all 14 counties in Northern Alabama and Southern Middle TN.

By the issuance on the 7th, a large swath of the D3 was downgraded to Severe Drought (D2) across central portions of the area, including: Franklin and Lincoln Counties in Southern Middle TN.

The area of D2 expanded once again by the issuance on the 14th, now including much of the southern halves of Franklin and Lincoln Counties, and now including southern Moore County in Southern Middle TN. In far SE Franklin County, Conditions improved and were downgraded once again to Moderate Drought (D1) Conditions.

No changes were made for the issuance on the 19th, but conditions slightly improved once again in far SE Franklin County, where D1 expanded further N/W with above normal rainfall ongoing across the Central portions of the area.

With above normal rainfall continuing into January, additional improvements will be likely in further Drought Monitor issuances as we head into 2024.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Huntsville, AL wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 11:59 PM CST, 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 30, 11:59 PM CST, 1 minute before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1159 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

...New AVIATION...

.NEAR TERM...
(Tonight)
Issued at 856 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

A very dry layer between 850 mb and the surface can still be seen
in 6 PM BMX and JAN soundings, despite very strong moisture
advection seen around 700 mb. This is much more noticeable in the
BMX sounding.

This dry air correlated pretty well with surface observations
in those areas not observing any rainfall reaching the ground,
despite some precipitation aloft around 700 mb. At 845 PM,
observations seem to show generally the same tale, with the light
to moderate rainfall remaining primarily in NW Mississippi into
Arkansas and extreme western Tennessee.

Based on observational/model trends, with the better lift
expected to move more northeast over the next few hours, delayed
isolated to scattered precipitation chances in northwestern
Alabama until right around or shortly after midnight. Some virga
will continue though. Lows tonight will likely be a balancing act
between warm air advection in the boundary layer and evaporative
cooling due to the falling precipitation into the very dry air
below 850 mb (especially given the strong forcing shown ahead of
the approaching pre-frontal trough axis in models to our NW).
Surface observations and satellite imagery show this pre-frontal
trough axis extending from eastern Missouri southwest along the
Arkansas/Tennessee border. However, the depth and strength of the
forcing will likely be able to produce an expanding area of light
to moderate rainfall and may be a few elevated thunderstorms SSW
of it over the area overnight (mainly near and south of the
Tennessee River).

Expect the more persistent and moderate precipitation to move
into NW Alabama in earnest around 2 AM. This activity should
increase in coverage and spread east towards daybreak. A few
elevated thunderstorms are not out of the question towards
daybreak into the early morning hours on Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Friday through Sunday)
Issued at 132 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

On Friday, high chances (70-90%) of showers along and ahead of an
approaching cold front will persist through the day. Instability
is lacking, but there is a low (15%) chance of an isolated
thunderstorm, with the best chances south of the Tennessee River.
In addition to the rainfall, expect gradient winds to gust 20 to
30 mph with some locally higher gusts in the higher elevations in
northeast Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. The front then
stalls near or just to the southeast of the forecast area. This
should result in a brief break from rain Friday night.

Then another shortwave lifts northeast along the stalled
boundary. This will once again result in high chances (70-80%) of
showers and a low chance (15%) of thunderstorms during the day
Saturday. Model guidance is still differing in timing of the
shortwave and placement of the stalled front. Some refinements in
the PoP grids will likely be needed as we head into the weekend.
However, do expect periods of persistent rain on Saturday, but it
should not rain the entire day. By Sunday, a reinforcing secondary
cold front traverses the area from northwest to southeast. This
will put an end to the rainfall and bring in another shot of
cooler air.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 AM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

A dry period should settle into the region next week, but will be
close with two clipper systems Monday and Tuesday. The first one
is a strong shortwave that follows quickly behind Sunday night
into Monday digging into the base of the trough with a compact but
potent -divQ (QG lift signal). This will likely produce precipitation
north and northeast of our immediate area. A similar "clipper"
type system, but further north, will track southeast through the
OH valley Tuesday, before dragging a dry cold front through the
TN Valley Tuesday night into early Wednesday. So after highs in
the upper 50s to lower 60s Tuesday, they drop to the upper 40s to
lower 50s Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1159 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Predominant VFR conditions are expected at KMSL around 06Z, but
expect -SHRA along with MVFR VSBYS/CIGS could occur between 6Z
and 9Z. At, KHSV expect -SHRA with MVFR VSBYS/CIGS to affect that
terminal a bit later, between 07Z and 10Z at times. -SHRA and
MVFR conditions should become more predominant around 9Z at KMSL
and 10Z at KHSV. Expect some SHRA and IFR VSBYS as well as CIGS
between 10Z and 15Z at both terminals. Couldn't rule out some cigs
below 1000 feet, but more confident this will occur after 15Z.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

NEAR TERM...KTW
SHORT TERM....GH
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...KTW

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Franklin

When
December 1, 12:00 AM CST to December 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Franklin forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
35.155, -86.092 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The U.S. Drought Monitor slowly showed improvement through the month of December, beginning the month with the entire CWFA included in Extreme Drought (D3) Conditions for all 14 counties in Northern Alabama and Southern Middle TN.

By the issuance on the 7th, a large swath of the D3 was downgraded to Severe Drought (D2) across central portions of the area, including: Franklin and Lincoln Counties in Southern Middle TN.

The area of D2 expanded once again by the issuance on the 14th, now including much of the southern halves of Franklin and Lincoln Counties, and now including southern Moore County in Southern Middle TN. In far SE Franklin County, Conditions improved and were downgraded once again to Moderate Drought (D1) Conditions.

No changes were made for the issuance on the 19th, but conditions slightly improved once again in far SE Franklin County, where D1 expanded further N/W with above normal rainfall ongoing across the Central portions of the area.

With above normal rainfall continuing into January, additional improvements will be likely in further Drought Monitor issuances as we head into 2024.

Drought, Lincoln

When
December 1, 12:00 AM CST to December 31, 11:59 PM CST
Where
Lincoln forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
35.141, -86.589 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The U.S. Drought Monitor slowly showed improvement through the month of December, beginning the month with the entire CWFA included in Extreme Drought (D3) Conditions for all 14 counties in Northern Alabama and Southern Middle TN.

By the issuance on the 7th, a large swath of the D3 was downgraded to Severe Drought (D2) across central portions of the area, including: Franklin and Lincoln Counties in Southern Middle TN.

The area of D2 expanded once again by the issuance on the 14th, now including much of the southern halves of Franklin and Lincoln Counties, and now including southern Moore County in Southern Middle TN. In far SE Franklin County, Conditions improved and were downgraded once again to Moderate Drought (D1) Conditions.

No changes were made for the issuance on the 19th, but conditions slightly improved once again in far SE Franklin County, where D1 expanded further N/W with above normal rainfall ongoing across the Central portions of the area.

With above normal rainfall continuing into January, additional improvements will be likely in further Drought Monitor issuances as we head into 2024.

Drought, Moore

When
December 1, 12:00 AM CST to December 31, 1:00 AM CST
Where
Moore forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
35.285, -86.359 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The U.S. Drought Monitor slowly showed improvement through the month of December, beginning the month with the entire CWFA included in Extreme Drought (D3) Conditions for all 14 counties in Northern Alabama and Southern Middle TN.

By the issuance on the 7th, a large swath of the D3 was downgraded to Severe Drought (D2) across central portions of the area, including: Franklin and Lincoln Counties in Southern Middle TN.

The area of D2 expanded once again by the issuance on the 14th, now including much of the southern halves of Franklin and Lincoln Counties, and now including southern Moore County in Southern Middle TN. In far SE Franklin County, Conditions improved and were downgraded once again to Moderate Drought (D1) Conditions.

No changes were made for the issuance on the 19th, but conditions slightly improved once again in far SE Franklin County, where D1 expanded further N/W with above normal rainfall ongoing across the Central portions of the area.

With above normal rainfall continuing into January, additional improvements will be likely in further Drought Monitor issuances as we head into 2024.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Tennessee in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, December 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1153062, 1153064, 1153065.