Drought in Kansas, December 1 to 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1132 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

...06Z AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. Widespread rain this evening into tonight. Forecast rainfall
totals of 0.75 to 1.25 inches, with localized amounts up to 2.00
inches.

2. Scattered light showers and/or drizzle may persist through
much of the day Friday, mainly north of I-44.

3. Warming trend and drier ahead next week.

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Tonight: Radar imagery depicts scattered showers across the area
this afternoon. An upper-level wave is nearing approach to the
region, and will support additional lift over the area into
tonight. As a result, coverage increases into the evening and
tonight. Elevated instability will remain limited with this
system, though a few stray thunderstorms may occur across southern
Missouri. Additionally, occasional wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph will
accompany the surface low as it lifts through the area.

An analysis of recent observations and model soundings depict an
environment favorable for efficient rainfall. Precipitable water
values around 1.00 to 1.20 inches are around the 90th percentile
for late November. Taking a look at potential rainfall amounts,
guidance is in good agreement that most of the area will see
around 0.75 to 1.25 inches, with potential pockets around 2.0
inches. This is well represented in the Local Probability-Matched
Mean (LPMM) on the recent HREF guidance that shows pockets of 1.5
to 2.0 inches of rainfall.

No flooding is expected with this system given the dry antecedent
conditions. Beneficial rainfall amounts are forecast to occur
drought stricken areas of west central into central Missouri.

Friday: Expect the bulk of widespread rain to lift northeast out
of the area early Friday morning. However, confidence is
increasing in the potential for light showers and/or drizzle
lingering through Friday afternoon. Confidence is highest along
and north of the Interstate 44 corridor where guidance depicts the
loss of cloud ice in the vicinity of low-level moisture and lift.
The persistent cloud cover and lingering rain chances sets the
stage for a cool day with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Saturday-Sunday: Ensemble guidance depict the longwave trough
holding across the Plains through the weekend with an additional
quick moving shortwave on Saturday night. This may support light
rain shower chances (20-40%) across central Missouri on Saturday
night. Meanwhile, highs will range from upper 40s (north) to
middle 50s (south) through the weekend. No rain chances in the
forecast for Sunday.

Monday-Thursday: Heading into next week, WPC Cluster Analysis
depict ridging developing over the western CONUS, with northwest
flow aloft. This will support a warmer and drier pattern through
next week. Temperatures are forecast to be above normal, with
highs in the middle to upper 50s. NBM guidance depict highs in the
lower 60s late in the forecast period, around 5 to 10 degrees
above normal for this time of the year.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

Rain showers will transition to light drizzle early in the TAF
period with continued prevailing IFR ceilings that may
occasionally lift to MVFR levels briefly. The gusty south-
southeast winds should weaken slightly after 12Z and turn
southwesterly.

Patchy drizzle will be possible at the terminal sites into the
early afternoon, though confidence in location and possible visibility
reductions is low at this time.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Perez
LONG TERM...Perez
AVIATION...Didio

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
719 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-020130-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
719 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Limited lightning risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, mainly across far
southern Missouri, will continue to move through southwestern
Missouri and southeastern Kansas this evening. The showers will
transition to more of a drizzle later tonight into Friday morning.
Visibilities could drop to below a mile at times within the
drizzle tonight into Friday morning.

Southerly wind gusts of 25 to 30 mph will also occur at times
this evening and tonight along and south of Interstate 44.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Scattered showers and drizzle will continue to occur across the
area Friday morning. Visibilities could drop below a mile at times
within the drizzle Friday morning. The showers and drizzle will
then gradually end from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/dsspacket

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Wise