As abnormally dry conditions continued across Middle Tennessee, drought conditions worsened across the area. By the end of December, severe drought conditions expanded to about 85 percent of the area with about 64 percent of that in the extreme drought category.
Every event with a place to put it; 36 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS OHX wrote it up.
As abnormally dry conditions continued across Middle Tennessee, drought conditions worsened across the area. By the end of December, severe drought conditions expanded to about 85 percent of the area with about 64 percent of that in the extreme drought category. Extreme drought conditions expanded across southern Middle Tennessee as well as the Cumberland Plateau. Slight drought improvements noted in November across the northwest worsened once again where rainfall deficits only increased. At the end of 2023, Nashville's yearly rainfall total was 11.45 inches below normal. Clarksville's yearly rainfall total was 4.85 inches below normal while Crossville was 7.36 inches below the yearly normal.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Nashville, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 30, 10:45 PM CST, 1 hour 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1045 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 727 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 Regional radar imagery this evening shows rain spreading into West Tennessee with some radar echoes showing up aloft in our southwest counties. 00Z OHX sounding indicates the lower atmosphere remains very dry across Middle Tennessee, so it will take until closer to or after midnight before rain can saturate the low levels and reach the surface in our area. After midnight, rain will spread across the entire cwa with pops rising to near 100 percent, before decreasing from west to east Friday morning. Rainfall totals are still anticipated to be around one half inch or less before the first round of rain ends Friday morning. As far as temperatures, they remain in the upper 40s and 50s this hour due to the ongoing WAA. However, dewpoints are still in the 20s, so as rain falls into the dry surface layer overnight, temps will quickly wet-bulb down into the 40s and hover there. Finally, surface winds have decreased this evening after being gusty during the day today, but winds will ramp up again overnight as the core of a 60+ kt 850mb jet moves overhead. A very strong low level temperature inversion and widespread rain will keep the strongest winds from mixing down to the surface, but still anticipating some gusts of 30 to 35 mph at times towards sunrise. Forecast has all of this covered well and only made some minor tweaks. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 High pressure continues to push east out of our area and we are starting to see mid to high level clouds build in ahead of an approaching trough. Winds this afternoon are gusting up to 25 mph and a dry air mass remains in place with afternoon humidity in the 20 percent range. These winds and low humidity are binging elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon. Winds will let up this evening and we will see humidity increase as the upper level trough starts to lift out of TX. Our quiet weather tonight will be replaced by breezy conditions along with rain. As the trough lifts we will see a low level jet increase becoming 50-70 knots at 850 mb. There is a strong inversion and for the most part these strong winds will stay aloft but given the pressure gradient we will see breezy winds overnight into tomorrow morning, wind gusts 30-35 mph can be expected and if rain mixes down any of the stronger winds we could see isolated gusts up to 40 mph. The strengthening low level jet will bring increased warm air advection and widespread rain to the area. Rain will push in from west to east mainly after midnight. Thunderstorm chances look to remain very low but there is some elevated instability above the inversion and few lightning strikes can't be ruled out but overall unlikely. Widespread rain will be tapering off during the morning with some showers lingering into the afternoon. Rain totals are overall looking light over the area with the better dynamics and QPF staying to our north and west. Rain totals for our area through Friday morning are looking to be 0.35-0.65" in the northwest tapering off to less than 0.25" in the southeast. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 The forecast becomes a bit more uncertain as we head into Saturday. As the trough pulls away it will put a boundary across the region. Ahead of this boundary we will see good Gulf moisture along with warm air advection. This will bring periods of light to moderate rain. The uncertainty is on where we see this boundary set up. The EC ensemble is further south and east with the trough to our northwest placing this boundary mainly to the east of our area, the GFS ensemble is further north and west placing the boundary over Middle TN. Confidence in high on little rain in the northwest Saturday but confidence in low on rain totals for the eastern half of the area. Right now QPF is looking to be 0.40-0.90 in the southwest falling off to less than 0.10" as you work northwest. The long wave trough over the Great Lakes will start to push east Sunday into Monday and that will push a cold front through our area. This will keep showers in the forecast for Sunday with things drying out for Monday. We will then be on the edge of long wave troughing over the Northeast through the middle of the week. The impacts will be small with things looking to remain dry. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1041 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023 While all TAF sites are currently VFR, that will be changing over the next few hours as SHRA continues to move through the area. Low cigs will move in area wide by 14Z and remain below VFR through at least 06Z. SHRA will begin to move out by the afternoon. S/SE winds continue through the TAF period, becoming gusty (15 to 25 kts) overnight into the morning hours. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 45 66 55 63 / 100 80 50 60 Clarksville 44 65 49 60 / 100 70 30 40 Crossville 40 58 51 61 / 90 90 70 80 Columbia 44 65 56 64 / 90 80 60 70 Cookeville 44 61 54 62 / 100 90 60 70 Jamestown 41 59 52 62 / 90 90 60 70 Lawrenceburg 45 64 57 64 / 90 90 70 70 Murfreesboro 44 65 56 65 / 100 90 60 70 Waverly 42 65 49 60 / 100 70 30 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && UPDATE.......Shamburger SHORT TERM...Mueller LONG TERM....Mueller AVIATION.....Adcock
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
36 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Extreme drought conditions from November 2023 continued across Wayne County in December.
Extreme drought conditions from November 2023 continued across Lawrence County in December.
Extreme drought conditions from November 2023 continued across Giles County in December.
Extreme drought conditions from November 2023 continued across Lewis County in December.
Drought improvement across northern Maury County in November 2023 deteriorated again in December with all of the county in extreme drought.
Drought improvement across northern Marshall County in November 2023 deteriorated again in December with all of the county in extreme drought.
Extreme drought conditions from November 2023 continued across Bedford County in December.
Extreme drought conditions from November 2023 continued across Coffee County in December.
Extreme drought conditions from November 2023 continued across Grundy County in December.
Severe to extreme drought conditions across Perry County from November 2023 worsened in December with all of the county in extreme drought conditions.
Severe to extreme drought conditions across Hickman County from November 2023 worsened in December with all of the county in extreme drought conditions.
Drought improvements across Williamson County in November 2023 deteriorated again in December with severe to extreme drought conditions across the county.
Drought improvements across Rutherford County in November 2023 deteriorated again in December with severe to extreme drought conditions across the county.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from November 2023 in Cannon County worsened in December with extreme drought conditions across the entire county.
Severe to extreme drought conditions across Warren County from November 2023 worsened in December with extreme drought conditions across the entire county.
Extreme drought conditions from November 2023 across Van Buren County continued in December.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from November 2023 deteriorated in December across White County with extreme drought conditions across the entire county.
Severe to extreme drought conditions from November 2023 deteriorated in December across Cumberland County with extreme drought conditions across the entire county.
Severe drought conditions from November 2023 across Humphreys County deteriorated in December with extreme drought conditions across the entire county.
Drought improvements across Dickson County in November 2023 deteriorated in December with severe to extreme drought conditions across the county.
Drought improvements across Cheatham County in November 2023 deteriorated in December with severe drought conditions across the county.
Drought improvements across Davidson County in November 2023 deteriorated in December with severe drought conditions across the county.
Moderate to severe drought conditions from November 2023 across Wilson County worsened in December with severe to extreme drought conditions across the county.
Moderate to severe drought conditions from November 2023 across Smith County worsened in December with severe to extreme drought conditions across the county.
Severe drought conditions from November 2023 across DeKalb County worsened in December with extreme drought conditions across the county.
Severe drought conditions from November 2023 across Putnam County worsened in December with extreme drought conditions across the county.
Severe drought conditions from November 2023 across Overton County worsened in December with severe to extreme drought conditions across the county.
Severe drought conditions from November 2023 across Fentress County worsened in December with severe to extreme drought conditions across the county.
Severe drought conditions from November 2023 across Jackson County continued in December.
Severe drought conditions from November 2023 across Clay County continued in December.
Severe drought conditions from November 2023 across Pickett County continued in December.
Severe drought conditions developed across southern Stewart County in December.
Severe drought conditions developed across Houston County in December. Extreme drought conditions developed across far southern portions of the county as well.
Severe drought conditions developed across southern Montgomery County in December.
Severe drought conditions developed across southern Sumner County in December.
Severe drought conditions developed across Trousdale County in December.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Tennessee in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Tennessee, December 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1146437, 1146439, 1146441, 1146442, 1146449, 1146450, 1146452, 1146454, 1146455, 1146458, 1146460, 1146462, 1146463, 1146466, 1146468, 1146469, 1146470, 1146471, 1146472, 1146473, 1146474, 1146475, 1146477, 1146478, 1146479, 1146480, 1146481, 1146482, 1146483, 1146484, 1146485, 1146486, 1146487, 1146488, 1146490, 1146492.