High Wind in Oklahoma, March 16, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
635 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Friday night)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

The main highlight of the short term are the likely chances for
precipitation today across the Panhandles. Rain and snow are
possible during the daytime today behind a strong cold front. Some
snow accumulation is possible in the northern Panhandles, with
most areas remaining below an inch of snow. Windy conditions are
expected behind the cold front and the northerly winds will lead
to a cold March day. Precipitation chances will end early this
evening and another cool day is expected tomorrow with less winds.

Southerly winds continue across the region early this morning,
which is aiding in the continued increase of surface dew points
across the forecast area. A very notable wind shift is seen up in
the surface station obs up in CO and KS with winds out of the
north. This wind shift should be entering the CWA in the next few
hours. The upper level disturbance that is forecast to provide
ample lift to produce precipitation with the increased moisture
across the area, is currently located near the AZ and NM state
line and is continuing to move east northeast.

A surface cold front is continuing to race down the Plains and is
forecast to move through the entire Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles
by around noon today. Behind the front, breezy to windy northerly
winds will usher in a cold air mass and temperatures will be well
below average for mid March. The highs for today are really not
worth mentioning, as they will occur early in the morning since
temperatures will continue to fall throughout the day. Given the
stronger winds behind the front, have opted to issue a Wind
Advisory for the southern TX Panhandle as this area is forecast
to have the strongest winds this afternoon into the evening. A
upper level shortwave trough will move over the Southern Plains
beginning later this morning. The PVA associated with this feature
combined with the increased moisture across the area, will allow
precipitation to develop over the Panhandles. With this being a
quick moving system, precipitation amounts are forecast to be
mainly below a quarter of an inch. Precipitation is looking likely
given the overall synoptic set-up combined with the mesoscale
features, so this looks to be a classic high PoP, low precip
accumulation scenario. With the temperatures falling throughout
the day as mentioned previously, rain and snow are both possible
today, with the higher chances of seeing snow the further north
you go in the CWA. Given the surface temperatures may be hovering
around the freezing mark, snow totals should generally remain
below one inch across the Panhandles. Even with that being said,
the 16/00z suite of hi-res models depicts a 30-40% chance of
seeing 1 inch of snow for portions of the northwestern Panhandles.
Will need to keep an eye on this closely, as the temperatures
will play a pivotal role in whether or not some minor impacts from
accumulating snow are possible.

Westerly flow returns to the Panhandles on Friday. Northerly winds
will continue to keep the cooler air mass over the region and
high temperatures will be in the 40s and low 50s. Dry conditions
will return to the Southern High Plains with no precipitation
expected on Friday.

Muscha

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 411 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

For Saturday and Saturday night, below normal temperatures and dry
weather are expected across the forecast area as northwest flow
aloft prevails in the wake of an eastward moving and eventually
exiting upper level trof over the eastern states.

For Sunday through Monday, below normal temperatures are likely
to continue as minor upper level perturbations embedded in an
eastward moving southern stream trof affect the area. All 00Z
deterministic models have trended dry for the OK and TX
Panhandles. The latest NBM has also made a significant change
towards the dry side as seen by the non-mentionable pops from
Saturday through Sunday night, and cannot argue about that trend
as the overall upper level pattern is not favorable for
precipitation in our region. The only pops left are slight chance
values for Monday, and that seems overdone based on all 00Z
deterministic models being dry for that day. Therefore, would not
be surprised at all if later NBM runs continue to lower the pops
for Monday. Warmer temperatures are slated for Tuesday and
Wednesday as a surface trof of low pressure develops over eastern
Colorado and eastern New Mexico in advance of the next upper level
storm system progged to evolve over the western states. NBM pops
and temperatures were incorporated into the grids for all periods
of the long range forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

MVFR to VFR conditions are expected during this TAF period. A cold
front is moving southward across the Panhandles at this time and
winds have switched to out of the north at KDHT and KGUY. KAMA
will switch northerly here in the next hour or so. Gusty winds of
35 to possibly 40 kts are possible at all sites. Ceilings behind
the front are dropping to MVFR and will remain at MVFR into the
afternoon hours. Light rain showers are possible at all sites and
could drop visibility into MVFR and possibly IFR if snow mixes in
with the rain. The higher chances for that occurring are at KDHT
and KGUY. Any showers should end before 00z and VFR conditions
should return around the same time. Winds will gradually decrease
after sunset.

Muscha

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                53  23  46  25 /  70   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  48  20  49  21 /  80   0   0   0
Boise City OK              37  18  42  20 /  80   0   0   0
Borger TX                  54  24  49  24 /  80   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              52  24  47  24 /  80   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  55  23  47  25 /  70   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               59  26  49  27 /  60   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 43  19  44  21 /  80   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  44  19  46  20 /  80   0   0   0
Hereford TX                56  24  47  24 /  60  10   0   0
Lipscomb TX                55  22  49  22 /  80  10   0   0
Pampa TX                   54  22  47  23 /  70   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                59  26  50  25 /  60   0   0   0
Wellington TX              64  28  52  27 /  50   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ011>020-317.

OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...05

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
433 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-162100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
433 AM CDT Thu Mar 16 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Sustained north winds to around 35 mph with higher gusts are
expected this afternoon and evening across the southern Texas
Panhandle. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this area from 2 PM
CDT this afternoon until 10 PM CDT this evening.

A mix of light rain and light snow is possible today across mainly
the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle. Snowfall
accumulations, if any, should remain less than one inch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

02