A long period northerly swell and wind-driven seas resulted in large breaking waves along the north coast of Puerto Rico during the week of March 16th. Life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions were observed with this event.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
A long period northerly swell and wind-driven seas resulted in large breaking waves along the north coast of Puerto Rico during the week of March 16th. Life-threatening rip currents and high surf conditions were observed with this event.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 16, 4:53 AM AST, 2 hours 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
453 AM AST Thu Mar 16 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Variable weather conditions are expected today to the
approach of a cold front. Scattered to numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms are also expected with this event across
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Another pulse of
northerly swell will arrive to the regional waters later today,
deteriorating marine conditions once again. There are several
advisories and rip-current statements in effect. Please visit our
marine section.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday
A cold front north of Hispaniola will continue to sink southwards
and it is expected to cross the region later this evening into
Friday morning. Light southerly winds converging with stronger
northerly winds will result in afternoon convection over the
interior and eastern half of Puerto Rico today. Then, as the front
push southwards, additional showers are expected across the rest of
PR and the U.S. Virgin Islands through the overnight hours. The mid-
to upper-level trough will promote colder than normal 500 mb
temperatures with the frontal passage and isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out. Urban and small stream flooding is expected
with this activity, as well as isolated flash flooding.
A building low to mid-level ridge behind the front will promote
stable conditions and drier air intrusion across the area later on
Friday and through Saturday. Breezy and fair weather conditions in
general are expected to prevail across all the islands, especially
on Saturday. Daytime temperatures should range from the low to mid
80s across the eastern and northern coastal areas of PR, as well
across the USVI, while the south and west coast of PR could see
temperatures in the mid to high 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...
A surface high pressure located north of the area in the Central
Atlantic will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades over the
region. By Sunday into the beginning of the workweek, tropical
moisture will move over the islands increasing the potential for
shower development for most of the long-term period. Passing
showers will be observed across the eastern and northern portions
of Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands during the overnight
and morning hours. Then, followed by afternoon convection across
the Central Interior and western Puerto Rico. The latest model
guidance (GFS) suggest a increase in moisture that will lead to
isolated to scattered showers across the region. The Precipitable
Water content between 1.50 to 1.75 inches, suggest in effect a
wetter weather pattern. Therefore, ponding of water in roads and
poor drainage areas may be possible. From Wednesday through
Thursday, a mass of drier air will filter into the local area,
limiting the shower formation across the local islands. Daytime
temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 80s along the coastal
areas and in the mid to upper 70s across the central interior.
&&
.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions expected thru 16/16z. Then, SHRA
with possible TSRA are expected to gradually increase from the
north, as a front moves across the local area. MVFR to tempo IFR
condtions are possible btw 16/19z-23z at TJSJ, spreading across the
rest of the terminals thru the overnight. Expect mtn top obscd.
Light southerly winds should prevail across all terminals, except
TJBQ/TJSJ where a northerly component is expected aft 16/14z. West-
northwest winds increasing 15-20 kt expected aft 17/00z.
&&
.MARINE...Another pulse of northerly swell is forecast to arrive
later today across the local Atlantic waters. Hazardous conditions
are expected and will persist throughout the weekend. Mariners can
expect seas that will increase up to 12 feet across the offshore
Atlantic waters and up to 8 feet in the rest of the waters and
Passages. Breaking waves will remain up to 14 feet, mainly along
the northern coastal areas of Puerto Rico. A High Surf Advisory is
in effect from the northwestern to northeastern beaches of Puerto
Rico, and Culebra. A Small Craft Advisory will start in effect
this afternoon for most of the regional waters. For beachgoers,
there is a high risk of rip currents along the northern exposed
beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Saint Thomas, Saint John, and
Saint Croix.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for PRZ001-002-
005-008-010-012.
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM AST Sunday for PRZ001-002-005-008-
010-012.
VI...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday afternoon for VIZ001.
High Rip Current Risk from this evening through Sunday afternoon
for VIZ002.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM AST Sunday
for AMZ711.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM AST Sunday
for AMZ712-741-742.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Friday to 2 PM AST Sunday for
AMZ716-723.
&&
SHORT TERM...DSR
LONG TERM....GRSPerspectivas sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan PR 459 AM AST jueves 16 de marzo de 2023 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-170900- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central- Interior Central-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayaguez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Las aguas cercanas y lejanas a la costa del Atlantico y del Caribe- 459 AM AST jueves 16 de marzo de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para Puerto Rico. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Rayos...Tronadas aisladas son posibles a traves de sectores de las islas avanzada la tarde y esta noche. Permanezca atento a tronadas en su area y este preparado para buscar refugio. .Lluvias excesivas...Se esperan inundaciones de areas urbanas, calles, riachuelos y drenajes a traves del este, centro, norte y sureste de Puerto Rico, incluyendo a Vieques y Culebra. Inundaciones repentinas aisladas son posibles. .Vientos...Condiciones ventosas esta noche a traves de la costa noroeste de Puerto Rico. Articulos no asegurados en el exterior pudieran ser arrastrados por los vientos. .Condiciones Maritimas...Oleaje mayor o igual a 10 pies en las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico esta noche, y entre 6 y 9 pies a traves de sectores costeros del norte y los pasajes. Condiciones peligrosas para las embarcaciones pequenas. .Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables en la zona de olas rompientes, particularmente a traves de las playas desde el oeste al noreste de las islas. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...viernes a miercoles Pulsos adicionales de marejadas del norte continuaran resultando en oleaje de 7 pies o mas a traves de las aguas locales del Atlantico y los pasajes del Caribe hasta finales de la semana. Persistira un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas al igual que condiciones de resacas con olas rompientes peligrosas para las playas del norte. Un frente frio continuara moviendose sobre la region hasta el viernes en la manana. Inundaciones menores son posibles. Los vientos tambien aumentaran y se tornaran mas del noreste para finales de la semana laboral. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar situaciones relacionadas a las condiciones del tiempo. Favor de informar inundaciones, vientos y oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-170900- San Tomas, San John e Islas Adyacentes- Santa Cruz-Las aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlantico y las aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 459 AM AST jueves 16 de marzo de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para las Islas Virgenes Estadounidenses. .DIA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Rayos...Tronadas aisladas son posibles a traves de sectores de las islas esta noche. Permanezca atento a tronadas en su area y este preparado para buscar refugio. .Lluvias excesivas...Inundaciones de areas urbanas, calles, riachuelos y drenajes. Inundaciones repentinas aisladas son posibles. .Condiciones Maritimas...Oleaje mayor o igual a 10 pies en las aguas mar afuera del Atlantico esta noche, y entre 6 y 9 pies a traves de sectores costeros del norte y los pasajes. Condiciones peligrosas para las embarcaciones pequenas. .Corrientes Marinas...Corrientes marinas amenazantes a la vida son probables en la zona de olas rompientes, particularmente a traves de las playas del oeste a noreste de las islas. .DIAS DOS A SIETE...viernes a miercoles Pulsos adicionales de marejadas del norte continuaran resultando en oleaje de 7 pies o mas a traves de las aguas locales del Atlantico y los pasajes del Caribe hasta finales de la semana. Persistira un riesgo alto de corrientes marinas al igual que condiciones de resacas con olas rompientes peligrosas para las playas del norte. Un frente frio continuara moviendose sobre la region hasta el viernes en la manana. Inundaciones menores son posibles. Los vientos tambien aumentaran y se tornaran mas del noreste para finales de la semana laboral. .Comunicado sobre informacion reportada por observadores... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar situaciones relacionadas a las condiciones del tiempo. Favor de informar inundaciones, vientos y oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorologia en San Juan.
2 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
A 911 operator received a report of a drowning at La Pared beach in Luquillo. Police officers found a male between 25 and 35 years old drowned on the shore.
Two men were swept by rip currents while trying to rescue a father and his son who were asking for help because they could not return to shore.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Northeast | 2023-03-16 | Male | In Water | Direct | |
| Rip Current, Northeast | 2023-03-16 | 47 | Male | In Water | Direct |
| Rip Current, Northeast | 2023-03-16 | 50 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1076236, 1076237.